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Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance. Key policy insights South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so. Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available. Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basic embodied-energy intensities of building construction materials/systems by various units and building types are shown to produce conflicting results and are not directly applicable at a national policy-intervention level. Using building construction and the allied sectors in South Africa, this paper demonstrates the extension of basic energy intensities derived through an improved input-output (I-O) method into a sectoral energy conservation framework. The framework is based on sectoral total embodiment energy impact coefficients derived through the multiplication of the total-embodiment energy intensity coefficients with the use-intensity coefficients. A ranking of building construction and the allied sectors in South Africa according to their energy impact coefficients is used to formulate a priority listing of critical sectors for energy conservation measures. The framework is used also to identify generic conservation measures for further investigation and evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]