Search

The arrival of the dual-carbon era indicates that it is imperative to reduce industrial carbon emissions with high carbon emissions. The implementation of carbon emission reduction will inevitably have an impact on industrial development. Three different carbon emission scenarios were established. Based on the average annual carbon emission growth rate of the past decade, it is set as a medium carbon scenario. According to the economic development stage and actual social development situation of each region, the corresponding annual average carbon emission growth rate is increased and decreased to set up high carbon and low carbon scenarios. The adjacent accumulation gray multivariate model for industries is established based on different scenarios. The results indicate that the carbon emission scenarios most suitable for industrial development in various regions are different. Heavy industrial provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have the highest industrial output value under high carbon scenarios; Provinces and cities with high levels of industrialization, such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong and Chongqing have the highest industrial output value under low-carbon scenarios. The industrial output value of Hebei is expected to grow the fastest under the high carbon scenario, reaching 2.15 trillion yuan by 2030. The industrial output value of Guangdong achieves the greatest improvement under low-carbon scenario. It is expected that the industrial output value of which will reach 6.86 trillion yuan by 2030, ranking first in the country. Therefore, the setting of carbon emission scenarios needs to be tailored to local conditions, increase technological innovation efforts, and further promote industrial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has established seven pilot carbon markets and has made efforts to establish a national carbon market. This paper constructs an AR-GARCH model and adopts bilaterally modified dummy variables to investigate the impacts of regulatory update events (allowance allocation plans and allowance auctions) on the pilot carbon markets in China. The pilots of Guangdong, Shanghai, and Hubei are chosen as case studies. We find that each pilot reacted differently to the same events due to mechanism design diversity. The allowance allocation plan in the Shanghai and Guangdong pilot markets generated relatively distinct influences on the carbon price. Furthermore, to a certain extent, allowance auctions played a role in carbon price discovery in Guangdong and Hubei. However, such an impact was not remarkable in the Shanghai pilot market. Based on the empirical results, policy recommendations are presented for the establishment of a national carbon market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]