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Sustainability concerns are increasingly shaping global investment decisions, prioritising sustainable impacts over mere profit-making. This study examines the performance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) funds in emerging markets, focusing on bull and bear market scenarios. A Markov Regime Switching model was employed to analyse daily price data from BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) ESG market indices spanning from 31 January 2011 to 2 January 2023. The analysis highlights the variability of ESG returns performance across different market conditions, emphasising the need for tailored investment strategies that account for market dynamics. Additionally, patterns in ESG returns and volatility are identified, along with pairwise relationships among ESG markets within the emerging markets bloc. The study also examines the influence of investor sentiments on ESG performance and controlled for the influence of macroeconomic factors on ESG performance amid changing market conditions. Finally, insights into transition probabilities between bullish and bearish market conditions offer guidance for more resilient investment portfolio management. This research contributes to advancing empirical knowledge on ESG investing in emerging markets, emphasising the significance of investor sentiments and market conditions for sustainable investment practices and long-term financial success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the extent to which the low-risk anomaly is present in a pooled sample of nine African frontier equity markets from March 2004 to July 2023. Portfolio-level analysis was used to investigate the total stock returns of equally weighted quintile portfolios sorted on historical volatility. The presence of a monotonic relationship between historical volatility and subsequent returns was evaluated using monotonicity tests, controlling for possible mediating variables. The results revealed evidence of a statistically significant low-volatility premium, except during bull markets. These findings imply that investors can expect to earn higher returns by allocating to stocks with lower historical volatility, but only during bear markets. These results hold for realistic portfolio construction constraints, such as (il)liquidity and high transaction costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variance risk premium is a critical predictor of expected returns. However, numerous studies indicate that expected returns depend strongly on the state of the economy. Herein, we examine the effect of the variance risk premium in different market states by using cross – sectional regression and predictability of returns. Our empirical results show that the variance risk premium is a significantly priced factor in bull markets. Additionally, predicted return horizons are shorter in bear markets than in bull markets. Compared with that in bull markets, the predictive ability of the variance risk premium diminishes more rapidly in bear markets when the horizon period is lengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An asset pricing model with two types of chartists and fundamentalists and trend followers is considered, it is driven by a two-dimensional piecewise linear discontinuous map with three subsystems. There are great differences in the dynamic behaviour between expected offset (the expectations of trend followers offset the difference between the expectations of Type 1 traders in bull and bear markets) and expected non-offset. It is proven that there is no chaos in the dynamic of system with expected offset. However, chaos may exist in the dynamic of system with expected non-offset. We present a systematic approach to the problem of analysing the bifurcation phenomena associated with the appearance/disappearance of cycles, which may be related to several bifurcations. The multi-stability regions in parameter plane and related basins of multi-attractors in phase space are investigated. This paper aims to uncover the endogenous law of the unpredictability and excessive volatility in financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Services and economic growth are inseparably connected in developed economies. However, digitally enabled transactions continue to transform how services are conceptualized, produced, and delivered around the world. These changes blur the lines between goods and services by creating new combinations of products that call into question fundamental generalizations of the traditional services advertising paradigm. To redress this flaw and regenerate interest in an underexploited research domain, this article (1) introduces a literature-based generalized framework for services advertising and (2) provides a future research agenda for reengaging academicians and practitioners. Although the theoretical basis for services advertising received attention soon after the concept of services marketing was born, it peaked between 1996 and 2005, before waning over the past 15 years. The diminution of empirical attention to this important topic was due, in part, to an overreliance on the traditional goods/services distinction, the lack of an agreed-upon definition, and the theory–practice gap in service-based marketing. Resurrection of this critically needed research will allow new advertising strategies to be developed that will enhance both theory testing and practitioner needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In decentralized finance (Defi), market participants are allowed to have the right to manage their own funds as opposed to centralized finance (Cefi) with a central custodian, centralized exchanges (CEX). Most Defi projects provide their own service and simultaneously issue a unique token that can be traded in decentralized exchanges (DEX). However, the values of these tokens have rarely been studied. We confirm that the prices of tokens in the Defi market have a persistent tendency to move together. We also demonstrate that the correlation gradually increased from the Defi market's inception and the price co-movement increased in a bear market, and conversely, decreased in a bull market. Specifically, we find a notable difference in the level of price co-movement between CEX cryptocurrencies and DEX tokens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we used data on China's initial public offerings (IPOs), market volatility and macro environment before and after two stock crashes during 2006–2016 to investigate how different investor sentiment affects IPO first-day flipping. The empirical results show that the expected returns of allocated investors are affected by sentiment, with allocated investors having higher psychological expectations of future returns during an optimistic bull market and their optimism discouraging first-day flipping, while higher risk-free interest rate levels and rising broad market indices also discourage first-day flipping and tend to sell in the future. The pessimistic bear market during which allocated investors have lower psychological expectations of future returns, their pessimism will promote first-day flipping, and the increase in the risk-free rate level will also promote first-day flipping, which is the opposite of the optimistic bull market, indicating that their risk aversion has increased and they tend to sell on the same day. We also found an anomaly that the greater the decline in the broad market index during a pessimistic bear market, the more inclined the allocated investors are to sell in the future when the broad market index rises in an attempt to gain higher returns. These findings help explain and understand the impact of market and macro index fluctuations on investor behavior under different investor sentiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has shown that tail risk hedging using explicit option purchases and trend-following effectively mitigate equity tail risk. This paper demonstrates that these defensive qualities can be leveraged into offence: overlaying a two-pronged tail risk management strategy that employs both option-based tail risk hedging and trend-following has empirically enhanced absolute and risk-adjusted returns relative to a buy-and-hold equity portfolio. Option-based tail risk hedging has empirically mitigated equity risk best during market crashes, while trend-following has notably supported equity during slower bear markets. In combination, and when overlayed onto equity, the resulting portfolio reliably outperformed equity during the most significant drawdown episodes suffered over the period under investigation and broadly maintained this advantage during equity bull markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a non-zero-sum stochastic differential game between two competitive CARA insurers, where we adopt the different classes of premium principles (including the expected value premium principle, the variance premium principle and the exponential premium principle) and each insurer aims to maximize the expected exponential utility of his terminal wealth relative to that of his competitor. Moreover, both insurers are allowed to purchase reinsurance treaty to mitigate individual claim risks and can invest in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset, a risky asset where the instantaneous rate of investment return follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process which can reflect the changes of bull market and bear market. The optimal reinsurance strategy has a non-trivial structure which is distinguished from the conventional proportional and excess-of-loss reinsurance strategies. Furthermore, we derive the optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under the variance premium principle and expected value principle. In addition, we give another model which considers the correlation between risk model and financial market under the expected value principle. Finally, numerical analyses are provided to analyze the effects of model parameters on the optimal strategies under different cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining data on share repurchases conducted by Chinese listed companies in the public market, this study explores the impact of corporate share repurchases on capital market information efficiency. The research results show that share repurchases effectively improve the information efficiency of the capital market. The mechanism test finds that share repurchases improve the capital market information efficiency by increasing stock liquidity and improving the market information environment. In addition, the heterogeneity test finds that the positive impact of share repurchases on the information efficiency of the capital market is more significant after the launch of the new Company Law in 2018 and in a bear market. Overall, this study provides a theoretical reference on the government's efforts to improve the basic capital market system with the aim of high-quality capital market development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the investment strategies of fund managers without business or IT background. The non-professional managers are inclined to pursue higher returns but with greater volatility. They are aggressive in the bull market while cautious in the bear market. With their participation, the funds could gain significantly higher abnormal returns even in economic downturns. The superior performance can be attributed to their management style. The non-professional managers would avoid being multi-tasked unless the financial market is thriving, while the professional ones would simultaneously operate several funds in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to investigate the causal relationship between the gold market and geopolitical risks from 4 January 2000, to 17 November 2017, using high-frequency data. The results indicated that geopolitical risks affect volatility rather than returns in the gold market. We also decompose intraday volatility into continuous and discontinuous jump components and find that geopolitical risks have stronger causality with the jump component under bear and normal market conditions. The results show, moreover, that the effects of geopolitical risks on realized volatility are asymmetric. Lastly, we divide the entire sample into four major geopolitical events (i.e. the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Irap invasion, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and Paris attacks) and find that the effect of these events on the gold market varied by type and scope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid and far-reaching spread of COVID-19 related news can alter investors' perceptions and investment behaviour and affect security returns. We investigate this hypothesis by studying the impact of COVID-19 related news (panic news, media-hype new, fake news, infodemic, and Stringency measures) and alternative measures of COVID-19 developed by Narayan et al. (2021) on Sukuk returns during different market conditions. Empirical results show asymmetric comovement between global Sukuk returns, panic news, travel bans, and the percentage of information about the novel COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the COVID-19 news affects the Sukuk returns only when the sukuk markets are bearish. The Sukuk returns are not affected by medical and vaccine information, and the aggregate COVID-19 index that captures the pandemic sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a big controversy among both investment professionals and academics regarding how the termination probability of a market state depends on its age. Using more than two centuries of data on the broad US stock market index, we revisit the duration dependence in bull and bear markets. Our results suggest that the duration dependence for both bull and bear markets is a nonlinear function of the state age. It appears that the duration dependence in bear markets is strictly positive. For 93% of the bull markets, the duration dependence is also positive. Only about 7% of the bull markets, those with the longest durations, do not exhibit positive duration dependence. We also compare a few selected theoretical distributions on their ability to describe the duration dependence in bull and bear markets. Our results advocate that the gamma distribution most often provides the best fit for both the survivor and hazard functions of bull and bear markets. However, our results reveal that none of the selected distributions accurately describes the right tail of the hazard functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the herding behavior in the Chinese stock market during COVID-19 and the asymmetry of that behavior using the daily returns of A- and B-shares from 2 January 2019, to 15 October 2021. The study uses the cross-sectional absolute deviation model to analyze stock market herding behavior by non-linear polynomial regression. We show that the herding behavior in the Chinese stock market is more prominent during the COVID-19 pandemic. Herding behavior has a negative effect on stock market volatility. Moreover, such a suppressing effect weakened during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is an asymmetry in herding behavior during the bull and bear markets, which is helpful in our investigation of the market's volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pronounced asymmetry in the herding behavior of the Chinese stock market during COVID-19 is assessed using the E-GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results of the present study contribute to the literature about herding asymmetry by showing the herding behavior during the health crisis and bull and bear markets. It also helps reconcile the debate about the impact of herding on market stability and provides insightful guidance for investors wishing to invest in the Chinese stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective is to assess the variability of collateral crypto-assets used in secured lending on the blockchain. Using the coefficient of variation, the study estimates volatility of selected assets and implied risk intensity for both borrowers and lenders on blockchain-based lending. The coefficient of variation model was adopted by testing volatility. The model produced a number of key empirical observations from January 2017 to December 2018 reflecting market swings resulting in volatility, despite its simplicity, using Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple crypto-assets. The results of the study provide clarity on the crypto-assets bullish and bearish markets and whether there is a correlation between crypto-assets and Bitcoin market dominance. The recommendations include that financial institutions should de-risk their investment, participate in the crypto-currency domain and ensure financial inclusion; concepts of traditional asset-backed lending could be implemented by looking at 50 percent loan-to-value ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how market regimes can influence investors' behaviour under the framework of prospect theory. Two market regimes (bull and bear) are considered, which affect our investors' reference points and their loss-averse behaviours. Using both theory and empirical evidence, the paper shows the disposition effect in a bull market is stronger than that in a bear market. Investors learn from both domains (gain and loss) in a bear market and more from the gain domain in a bull market. These results also provide an explanation for asymmetric learning regarding the disposition effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and the Taipei Exchange between 2000 and 2017, this study explores whether the sobering-up effect exists in analysts' earnings forecasts. Further, this study also examined whether the aggregate bias (accuracy) of analysts' annual earnings forecasts vary with analysts' familiarity with the forecasted companies and whether analysts' forecasting behavior is influenced by market sentiment. Our findings provide evidence for the existence of sobering-up effect on analysts' earnings forecasts. When analysts forecast earnings for companies that they are less familiar with or the market is bearish, the analysts' strength of sobering is more significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel quantile connectedness network method is used to investigate the vulnerability of emerging stock markets to global shocks in the normal, bear and bull markets. The size of the system-wide shock for an emerging market is doubled, while its own shock is halved in the bear and bull markets relative to the normal market and vice versa. As the size of the systemic shock increases in the bear and bull markets, which leads to an increase in the bilateral shock for emerging markets. Although the dollar index emerged as a risk factor only in the normal market, oil is not a risk factor for the emerging market bloc, irrespective of the state of the market. However, the US stock market is a major risk factor for emerging markets in all kinds of market conditions, although the degree of the shock spillover is more pronounced in the normal market than in the bear and bull markets. The robustness of the vulnerability is verified in a time-varying framework. Policy implications are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the performance of three famous factor pricing models in markets of bull, bear, and consolidation in China. Empirical results show that these models explain the time-series variations in portfolio returns in bearish market reasonably well, but fail to explain the cross-sectional variations. Another two findings are revealed by instability tests. First, the three models are more unstable in trending (i.e., bearish and bullish) markets under time-series regression due to the higher stock price synchronicity. Second, greater instability causes the unitary parameter estimates less reliable and brings about difficulties in explaining the cross-sectional portfolio returns in trending markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The People's Republic of China has increasingly become an attractive location for foreign capital. The flow of foreign capital into mainland China includes the so-called northbound cash flow which is a colorful term that is often used to describe capital flowing into the mainland from Hong Kong. Two markets that have become an attractive destination for northbound cash flow is the Shanghai stock exchange and the Shenzhen stock exchange. This paper investigates the impact, if any, of northbound cash flows on investor sentiment for investors residing in mainland China. In other words, the paper attempts to ascertain whether the extent of northbound cash flows influences the extent to which mainland investors feel either bullish or bearish about the market. The research objective is addressed using quantitative models and focuses on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange. Research results indicate that northbound cash flows from Hong Kong significantly impacts investor sentiment in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the asymmetric shock transmission mechanisms between seven large cryptocurrencies and crude oil at different market conditions across time. Wavelet technique was used to decompose the daily return series of the assets into wavelet scales to capture trading horizons. We applied quantile regression (QR) and quantile-in-quantile Regression (QQR) on the decomposed series to capture the bear (bull) market conditions. Applying the QR, we found Ethereum, Steller, Ripple and Monero as hedges for oil market volatility at all market regimes from medium to long terms. The QR undermined the hedging properties of Bitcoin, Litecoin and Das, suggesting possible spread of market disruptions from these markets to crude oil market. We observe from QQR that the assets have negative influence on each other at bear market but positive influence at bull market across time, signifying hedging possibilities for both assets in bear market. The significance of our finding is strengthened by the recent rise in the market share of cryptocurrencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutual funds in China that invest heavily in stocks with high sentiment beta deliver poorer performance when standard risk factors and fund characteristics are controlled. However, these funds attract more new investment, which is somewhat puzzling. Funds adopting such a sentiment-catering strategy follow less idiosyncratic strategies and tend to increase risk taking. The impact of fund sentiment beta is more significant in bull markets than in bear markets, and more pronounced for growth and balanced funds than for value funds. Together, the findings suggest that Chinese mutual funds exploit investor sentiment for self-serving purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a refined version of almost stochastic dominance (ASD), we explore the performance-comparison issues between traditional markets and Islamic markets in terms of industry and business condition. The empirical outcomes indicate that Shariah compliance makes both the consumer services and finance industries in Islamic markets outshine other industries and outperform the corresponding industries in traditional markets. Except for the period before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, Islamic markets prevail over traditional markets in bearish (2007–2012) and persistently bullish (2013–2017) periods. These contrasts indicate that Islamic markets have emerged as a superior investment alternative since the GFC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many market technicians claim that technical rules are effective more in bear markets than in bull markets. Using the 2008 financial crisis as the backdrop for testing, this study investigates how effective they are in the stock markets of Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Accordingly, this study performs three tasks. First, it examines the transmission mechanism of stock market movements between the U.S. market and the four Asian markets using vector autoregression. Second, it employs three technical rules - simple moving average, dual moving average, and trading range break - and evaluates their effectiveness in the four markets. Third, it uses the bootstrap method for statistical inferences about the returns from using these technical rules. This study concludes with some important policy implications for the four Asian markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The news media have been described by Shiller ([2000]. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.) as fundamental propagators of speculative price movements. We test whether investors react differently to sentiment in bull and bear markets using the tone of reporting in the Financial Times as a proxy for sentiment. Our sentiment proxy is a daily measure covering the period from 1899 to 2010. We find that the tone of the Financial Times influences trading volume during bull markets. These findings are consistent with noise traders driving trade during speculative booms and Shiller's press-as-propagators hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional finance theory posits that the relation between the risk and return of stocks is positive. Equally, investment practice is often based on the contention that high (low) beta stocks earn higher (lower) returns. However, this fundamental relation is questioned by several researchers, who present mixed evidence. The purpose of this paper is to shed further light on this question by examining both market- and firm-level price data; employing a battery of tests, including individual market, panel and quantile regressions; analysing the nature of the relation during periods of high and low volatility and in bull and bear markets. The results indicate that there is no single robust relation between risk and return. Notably, the results suggest a positive relation when returns are high and during bear markets. Further, the finding of a positive relation is stronger at the market-level than the firm-level and over long time periods. However, a negative relation exists at low return levels, during bull markets and, even more so, at the individual firm level. Overall, the results suggest that the risk-return relation is switching in nature and is primarily driven by changing risk preferences. A positive relation exists when macroeconomic risk plays a larger role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, in this paper, we use a large data set of high-frequency data on individual stocks and a few popular time-series volatility models to comprehensively examine how volatility forecastability varies across bull and bear states of the stock market. We find that the volatility forecast horizon is substantially longer when the market is in a bear state than when it is in a bull state. In addition, over all but the shortest horizons, the volatility forecast accuracy is higher when the market is in a bear state. This difference increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Our study concludes that stock volatility predictability is strongest during bad economic times, proxied by bear market states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamics, direction, and determinants of industry return predictability in Chinese stock markets during the period 1993–2015. Using the dynamic approach, we find that industry portfolio predictability is time varying and has wide variations across industries. Lagged returns in four industries (banking, real estate, leasing, and information technology) are positively associated with aggregate market returns, while lagged returns for traditional industries are largely inversely associated with market returns. Our findings are consistent with gradual information diffusion across economically-linked industries. The likelihood of industry predictability increases by 4.5–8% in a bull market over that in the bear market. Our results advise investors to distinguish industries and stock market conditions to better time the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates how margin-trading and short-selling affect stock price efficiency in the Chinese stock market. Using a sample of 205 stocks that are allowed to do margin-trading/short-selling in China after the fifth-round ban lift in 2014, we conducted fixed-effect panel regressions with three proxies for stock price efficiency. The findings support that price efficiency for these stocks is much higher than those that are not. The stocks that are newly added to the list of margin-trading and short-selling also see their price efficiency improve after the event compared to before the event. During a bull market, short selling improves stock price efficiency possibly through increasing liquidity, less information asymmetry, and broader investor base. On the other hand, during a bear market, margin-trading improves efficiency possibly through only liquidity and ownership breadth channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel methodology to define, analyze and forecast market states. In our approach, market states are identified by a reference sparse precision matrix and a vector of expectation values. In our procedure, each multivariate observation is associated to a given market state accordingly to a minimization of a penalized Mahalanobis distance. The procedure is made computationally very efficient and can be used with a large number of assets. We demonstrate that this procedure is successful at clustering different states of the markets in an unsupervised manner. In particular, we describe an experiment with one hundred log-returns and two states in which the methodology automatically associates states prevalently to pre- and post-crisis periods with one state gathering periods with average positive returns and the other state periods with average negative returns, therefore discovering spontaneously the common classification of 'bull' and 'bear' markets. In another experiment, with again one hundred log-returns and two states, we demonstrate that this procedure can be efficiently used to forecast off-sample future market states with significant prediction accuracy. This methodology opens the way to a range of applications in risk management and trading strategies in the context where the correlation structure plays a central role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current studies on the media effect fail to reach a consistent conclusion in a global setting. Lacking independence and highly controlled, the media functions differently in China and exerts unexpected influences on capital markets. Focusing on listed companies in China, the author analyzes the media effect on stock returns and further considers market states. Using a comprehensive database on firm-related news stories, stocks with high media coverage are found to possess higher stock returns, Jensen's alphas, and Daniel et al. [1997] adjusted returns over the 2007–2014 sample period. Moreover, the media effect is stronger in bull markets than in bear markets. The result is robust to model settings, alternative definitions of market states, estimation methods, portfolio formation, and sample selection. The study contributes to the literature by advancing the understanding of the Chinese media effect in bull and bear markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many people have been enraged lately by the enormous increases in certain generic prescription drugs. But free marketeers defend these prices by arguing that they simply represent what the market will bear, and in a capitalist society there is accordingly nothing wrong with charging them. This paper argues that such a defense is actually contrary to the very principles that free marketeers claim to embrace. These prices are not only unjust and exploitative, but government interference with them would not render the market less free, at least if what it means for a market to be "free" is properly understood. Everyone, even free marketeers with a libertarian or neoliberal bent, should accordingly be against this kind of profiteering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the normal mixture model, as an alternative distribution, is utilized to represent the characteristics of stock daily returns over different bull and bear markets. Firstly, we conduct the normality test for the return data and compare the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics of normal mixture models with different components. Secondly, we analyze the likely reasons why parameters change over different sub-periods. Our empirical examination proves that majority of the data series reject the normality assumption and mixture models with three components can model the behavior of daily returns more appropriately and steadily. This result has both statistical and economic significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market participants often invoke the concept of discrete state when discussing financial markets. Bull market, bear market, depression, and recession are all terms that map to discrete market states. Mental models of how markets behave in each state and transition between states are then applied to decision-making. Implicit to that approach is the assumption that states are persistent and recurrent over time. This article seeks to formalize notions of discrete market states by proposing a parsimonious and innovative approach to segmenting periods of time into discrete states. The technique is demonstrated and evaluated in a series of case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article extends previous empirical research to forecast Chinese bull and bear stock markets by using three types of binary probit time series models, which are static, autoregressive, and dynamic autoregressive models. This study shows that the dynamic auto regressive model performs the best both in- and out-of-sample. The inflation and market return variables significantly affect the market forecast. The dynamic autoregressive model has successfully forecast the bull and bear markets since 2007. The investment strategy based on this model performs better than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, especially after the Chinese government reformed the non-tradable shares in 2005. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study explores whether the credit risk anomaly exhibits option-like behaviour similar to the momentum anomaly. It finds that the inverted credit risk spread indeed displays option-like behaviour in bear market states. Unlike a momentum portfolio, which is effectively a short call option on the market, an inverted credit risk portfolio appears to be a long call option on the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decision-making of investors is highly influenced by their feelings. According to behavioural finance, investor greed and fear would form irrational behaviour and affect their portfolio allocation. Although well-known mechanical investment strategy of dollar cost averaging (DCA) and value averaging (VA) could eliminate the problems of when to purchase, there are still some disadvantages to consider. For example, using a DCA strategy may be able to decrease volatility in portfolio so as to not effect investment decision, but it gives no rule for selling and may increase the opportunity cost of time if investors start deducted at peak prices. On the other hand, VA gives more aggressive sell signals to control the value of the portfolio to the level desired, but the investor may not have enough money purchase of a large number of shares in sharp decline period. Therefore, we use VA as main strategy and Bollinger Band as assist indicator for check for volatility for entry or exit. Through analysis and simulation, the new strategy we design does improve the performance during both bull and bear market periods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article looks at the values of market-based equities (common stocks) based on the relative investment valuation, analyzed with several earnings multiples in global lodging markets in 2014. To be specific, we compare the value of various common stock portfolios sorted for four geographical regions with those relative value investment metrics so that we can make a solid judgment about bullish and bearish markets demonstrating investors' confidence or stagnancy, anomalies in prices indicating under and overvalued stocks, and outperforming lodging portfolios in global markets. Common stock prices in portfolios are standardized, utilizing earnings parameters such as Current Price/Earnings Ratio (PE) and its variants (Trailing and Forward PE), Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG), and The Market Value of Debt and Equity free of Cash-to-EBlTDA (Value/EBITDA). Linking the relative value with earnings proxies and the stock portfolios, which are extracted in a homogeneous industry but are sorted from heterogeneous regions, primary findings of this study reveal that western and eastern markets have outperformed the Latin markets in regard to future earnings estimate, earnings growth, and excessive returns from the invested capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that the behaviour of enterprises might be modified or even changed completely after black swan events occur. We explore why high-tech firms preferred to issue convertible bonds in 2001–2003, the bear market period after the tech bubble in Taiwan. We show that firms issuing convertible bonds are those with low directors’ holding ratio and high debt ratio. Results also reveal that corporate governance was worse in the firms that issued convertible bonds, as revealed by the finding that the directors’ holding ratio of these issuing firms declined considerably. This finding also implies that corporate governance issues become more serious after black swan events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct predictability tests for selected Asian stock markets using monthly data from the period March 2001–April 2012. Asian market bears and returns are predicted using the U.S. stock market bears and returns. A two-state Markov-switching model is employed to distinguish between the bull and bear regimes in the U.S. and Asian stock markets. The in-sample predictability analysis suggests that the U.S. market returns and bears are important predictors of Asian market returns and some Asian bears. The out-of-sample predictability exercise is not able to reinforce the in-sample results, which is in large part due to the small forecasting sample size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will investigate herding behaviour in asymmetric (bearish versus bullish context) and extreme market conditions (characterized by significant changes in stock prices) through daily data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange markets. Results show that a bullish context generates a herding behaviour for B-shares while a bearish situation rather favours a crowd movement for A-shares. Given that sophisticated investors are known to trade on B-shares, these results suggest that this category of actors is more likely to follow the trend when they face with a bullish context while they can reduce their herding behaviour in a bearish context by using technical/analytical tools allowing them not to follow the crowd behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets through careful selection of predictor variables that capture business cycles and market sentiment. Yet, a distinct literature exists that shows that non-linear econometric frameworks, such as Markov switching, are also natural tools to compute optimal portfolios arising from the existence of good and bad market states. This paper examines whether and how simple VARs can produce portfolio rules similar to those obtained under a simple Markov switching, by studying the effects of expanding both the order of the VAR and the number/selection of predictor variables included. In a typical stock-bond strategic asset allocation problem for UK data, we compute the out-of-sample certainty equivalent returns for a wide range of VARs and compare these measures of performance with those of non-linear models. We conclude that most VARs cannot produce portfolio rules, hedging demands or (net of transaction costs) out-of-sample performances that approximate those obtained from simple non-linear frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five ASEAN economies (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) using the recently developed pooled mean group (PMG) technique. Stock market cycles are identified by employing Markov switching models and the rule-based nonparametric approach. Estimating the models using monthly data from 1991:1 to 2011:12, the results show that monetary policy (measured by short-term interest rate) has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output. These results are consistent with finance constraints (capital market imperfection) models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stock market behavior after different shocks has been analyzed from different points of view, but none has considered, as in this work, the possibility of combining different procedures, intraday returns over six days, and different phases of the markets in the Spanish stock market. The inconclusive results that we find following the previous empirical methodologies make way to interesting results when bull and bear markets are considered. We find that positive shocks are much more important than negative shocks, especially in downward trends where we find a significant overreaction effect that can be associated with the pessimism prevailing in a bear market after the “dead cat bounce” which represents those positive shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No  prior research has (1) studied the relation between gold and stocks for the four severe bear markets since 1960s, (2) used different segments of stock markets simultaneously for analysis and (3) implemented a system of equations to control for exogenous and endogenous variables to investigate the role of gold for investments hedge in these severe bear market periods, and compare the results with its role in nonbear market periods. Results show that gold was a good instrument for hedging stock market risk for only two of the four severe bear market periods analysed. For nonbear market periods, except for small-cap stocks, gold also did not offer good risk hedging. The findings are of interest, as it coincides with the fact that small-cap stocks are the riskiest and most volatile investment even during economic good times, and gold is found to offer a risk-hedging power for this segment of the stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of official rumor clarification on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions. The results show that the average cumulative abnormal return after the clarification event is significantly positive in a bull market, and significantly negative in a bear market. The results are robust across various types of rumors, including rumors of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring, and positive changes in a firm's operations. Moreover, in both bull and bear markets, investors are unable to distinguish between rumors that prove true and those that prove false, or between strong and weak rumor denial. Furthermore, investors are also unable to adjust their strategies accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the disposition effect across market states in the context of mutual fund investors in Taiwan. Using mutual fund data at the fund and individual levels during July 2001 to October 2008, we find that the disposition effect varies across market states. Our results suggest that investors redeem their mutual fund units more under a bear market than a bull market when they have extreme capital losses. When investors have moderate capital gains, they are less active in redeeming their mutual fund units under a bull market relative to a bear market. Under a neutral market, investors actively redeem mutual fund units in both winner and loser mutual funds except when they have extreme capital losses. Thus, disposition effect is not uniform; it varies by market condition. In addition, the disposition effect phenomenon also exists for Taiwan mutual fund investors as well. Our findings are robust to aggregate and individual investor levels. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examined the behavior of institutional and retail investors in Malaysia during the bulls and bears. The results revealed significant differences in behavioral patterns between these two groups of investors. For the institutional investors, obvious differences were found in the areas of overconfidence, liquidity preference, and price anchoring between these two distinct market trends. As for the retail investors, there were no obvious difference in investing behavior except in terms of liquidity preference and self-control. The overall results indicated that both investors exhibited overconfidence during both periods; nonetheless, they were somewhat rational by exercising self-control and being concerned with liquidity when making investment decisions. Both investors ranked dividend yield as the most important fundamental variable particularly during bearish market outlook. On the other hand, trend analysis was rated as the most important variable closely watched technical indicator during bullish market outlook. Consistent with the findings of both surveys, we provide evidence that dividend yield appeared to be significant risk factor as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lottery stocks are a puzzle: individual investors value these stocks highly despite their low average returns and high volatility (Kumar [2009]). I argue that individuals are attracted to lottery stocks because they are risk-seeking and sentiment-prone. Because risk preferences are not directly observable, I use a model-free approach based on stochastic dominance to infer aggregate risk preferences. I also use a direct measure of individual investor sentiment, the bull-bear spread, to test whether sentiment affects the returns of lottery stocks. My results show that lottery stock investors are indeed risk seekers. Sentiment also plays an important role in explaining the demand and returns of lottery versus nonlottery stocks. The lottery stock puzzle can thus be understood only by incorporating unusual risk preferences and the propensity for individual investors to trade on sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]