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Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an estimate from a newer or more complex one. While it is traditional to compare estimates using risk, such comparisons are rarely conclusive in realistic settings. In response, we propose the "c-value" as a measure of confidence that a new estimate achieves smaller loss than an old estimate on a given dataset. We show that it is unlikely that a large c-value coincides with a larger loss for the new estimate. Therefore, just as a small p-value supports rejecting a null hypothesis, a large c-value supports using a new estimate in place of the old. For a wide class of problems and estimates, we show how to compute a c-value by first constructing a data-dependent high-probability lower bound on the difference in loss. The c-value is frequentist in nature, but we show that it can provide validation of shrinkage estimates derived from Bayesian models in real data applications involving hierarchical models and Gaussian processes. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial marketing literature highlights benefits from brand advocates who recruit and promote in the interest of the commercial entity. However, a similar focus is lacking on how advocacy can extend the effectiveness of social change initiatives. We utilise a case study to demonstrate the benefit of social advocacy and its impact on behaviour change, and thereby propose an advocacy model. To develop this conceptual model, we discuss several key areas; behaviour change and advocacy, advocate identification, and how to influence advocacy within communities and individuals. This research provides a guiding framework for practitioners to develop programs and interventions with advocacy triggers and strategies to enhance the longevity and effectiveness of social change programs through participant-based advocacy. Thus, giving intervention programs in a variety of organisational structures e.g. non-profit, corporate, government etc. a specific model to increase the effectiveness of social programs. Our paper extends behaviour change literature by leveraging social marketing concepts to modify and extend the transtheoretical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper explores the perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine among South Asian communities residing in the UK. Thirty-eight semi-structured interviews were conducted using a qualitative approach and analyzed using thematic analysis. Participants represented Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan, Afghani, and Nepali backgrounds. The participants revealed that family and community influence their perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine. The results suggest that normalizing vaccine acceptance, addressing unknown side effects, and popularizing vaccine efficacy data will increase vaccine uptake within the South Asian community in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how public perception of threat and efficacy (on self and others) influence their tendency to take preventive action against the Zika virus by surveying 1,152 U.S. adults in Texas and Florida. Findings show that individuals were likely to take protective actions when they: (1) saw a high risk of the disease (high threat) and were confident about their ability to reduce the danger (high efficacy); and (2) perceived others as having a high risk (high threat), but lacked the ability to reduce the danger (low efficacy). Further, the study discusses practical implications for the design of public health campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of the change in crime over time is a critical first step toward better understanding of public safety in large urban environments. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural way to study spatial variation in urban crime dynamics at the neighborhood level, since it facilitates principled "sharing of information" between spatially adjacent neighborhoods. Typically, however, cities contain many physical and social boundaries that may manifest as spatial discontinuities in crime patterns. In this situation, standard prior choices often yield overly smooth parameter estimates, which can ultimately produce mis-calibrated forecasts. To prevent potential over-smoothing, we introduce a prior that partitions the set of neighborhoods into several clusters and encourages spatial smoothness within each cluster. In terms of model implementation, conventional stochastic search techniques are computationally prohibitive, as they must traverse a combinatorially vast space of partitions. We introduce an ensemble optimization procedure that simultaneously identifies several high probability partitions by solving one optimization problem using a new local search strategy. We then use the identified partitions to estimate crime trends in Philadelphia between 2006 and 2017. On simulated and real data, our proposed method demonstrates good estimation and partition selection performance. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To synthesize evidence on the effectiveness of mass media campaigns for the management of LBP on beliefs of the general public and health care providers, LBP-related disability, health utilization, and LBP clinical outcomes. Five electronic databases were searched from inception to December 17, 2019. Any studies evaluating the effectiveness of mass media campaigns for LBP were eligible. Primary outcome was general public LBP beliefs, while secondary outcomes included health care provider beliefs as well as LBP-related disability, health utilization, and clinical outcomes. The search resulted in 4,164 unique records, of which 18 studies were included. These 18 studies predominantly used quasi-experimental methods to evaluate seven LBP mass media campaigns conducted in seven countries. All studies evaluating LBP beliefs in the general public detected positive effects. Health care provider beliefs also consistently improved. Results for behavioural outcomes (disability behaviour and health utilization) were mixed and appeared dependent on campaign characteristics and local context. Mass media campaigns for LBP appear effective for improving beliefs of the general public and health care providers. Prospero CRD42018116797 Mass media campaigns about low back pain (LBP) appear effective for improving beliefs of the general public and health care providers, aligning beliefs with current evidence and self-management principles. Rehabilitation professionals should be aware of and seek to support public education initiatives in their communities related to LBP and other disabling health conditions. Rehabilitation professionals can highlight and reinforce campaign messages when providing education and reassurance to individual patients. Several campaign resources (i.e., posters, pamphlets, electronic resources, etc.) are available for rehabilitation professionals to use in their efforts to reduce disability related to LBP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the context of globalization, we explore the country-of-origin of brand or product placements in Bollywood films. Content analysis of films since economic liberalization (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2010) reveals a substantial increase in brands, with foreign brands outnumbering domestic brands and placed in prominent ways. Results of surveys reveal that Indians are positive about the practice yet generally prefer domestic over foreign product placements. Consumer ethnocentrism versus admiration for Western lifestyles emerged as significant predictors of attitudes and perceptions. Theoretical ramifications for globalization, global brand strategy, and brand placement are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We propose a Bayesian procedure for simultaneous variable and covariance selection using continuous spike-and-slab priors in multivariate linear regression models where q possibly correlated responses are regressed onto p predictors. Rather than relying on a stochastic search through the high-dimensional model space, we develop an ECM algorithm similar to the EMVS procedure of Ročková and George targeting modal estimates of the matrix of regression coefficients and residual precision matrix. Varying the scale of the continuous spike densities facilitates dynamic posterior exploration and allows us to filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances gradually. Our method is seen to substantially outperform regularization competitors on simulated data. We demonstrate our method with a re-examination of data from a recent observational study of the effect of playing high school football on several later-life cognition, psychological, and socio-economic outcomes. An R package, scripts for replicating examples in this article, and results from further simulation studies are provided in the available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this study are (a) to examine the impact of religion on consumers' perceptions of controversial advertising, on their perceptions of the protective and restrictive social effects of controversial advertising regulations, and on their perceptions of the restrictiveness of the regulations; and (b) to determine the moderating effect of religion on the influence of independent variables (consumers' perceptions of controversial advertising, and of the protective and restrictive social effects of regulations on controversial advertising) on a dependent variable (consumers' perceptions of regulations governing controversial advertising). According to cross-sectional survey data collected from 1,402 university students in 11 countries throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, Islamic followers were most easily offended by controversial advertising and generally found the current regulations not strict enough to address their sensitivities; Christians' and Hindus' found the regulations to fit with their more liberal attitudes toward controversial advertising, while Buddhists/Taoists and nonbelievers perceived the current regulations to be overly strict. These findings suggest that regulatory bodies should institute regulations consistent with the sensibilities of the religious profile of the population in the locale in which they operate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of large-scale, 'mass' community-based sport, and physical activity (PA) events on population PA has yet to be established. The enhancement of organizational capacity to support health promotion initiatives is one mechanism through which such events may be helpful. Sports Day in Canada (SDIC) is an annual, nation-wide event celebrating the role of sport within communities and promoting sport participation. Beginning in 2010, thousands of Canadian sport and PA organizations have created SDIC events each year. The objective of this study was to examine the types of organizations who participate in SDIC and to determine if and how these organizations benefit from hosting an event. Online surveys of event organizers (2010 to 2013 SDIC) were conducted. Descriptive analyses identified organization and event characteristics, and one-way ANOVAs across time assessed event organizers' perceptions related to their overall satisfaction, benefits obtained, and challenges faced while participating in SDIC. Findings showed that organizations were mainly from the provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, worked with children and youth, and registered an event that was a tournament or school based. There was a significant increase in overall satisfaction [F(3, 996) = 27.26, p <.001] and benefits obtained [F(3, 1000) = 18.36, p <.001] across all four years of SDIC. One main benefit reported by organizations was an increased awareness and interest among community members in sport program(s) offered by their organization. Mass events like SDIC may help enhance organizational capacity to deliver health promotion initiatives including sport and PA programming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sports Day in Canada (SDIC) is an annual event celebrating the role of sport within communities and promoting sport participation across Canada. SDIC ends a week of thousands of local sporting events and activities with a day-long national television broadcast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether awareness of SDIC has increased over time among Canadians (2010–2013), identify correlates of awareness, and assess changes in individuals' intentions to engage in sport. Online surveys were administered (2010: N = 863; 2011: N = 674; 2012: N = 861; 2013: N = 1447) to assess demographics, levels of physical activity and sport participation, awareness of SDIC, and intentions to participate in sport and physical activity as a result of SDIC. Analyses were conducted using independent t-tests, one-way ANOVAs, and a series of binary logistic regressions. Awareness of SDIC increased significantly from 26.9% in 2010 to 41.2% in 2013. Current sport participation (OR 1.21; 95% CI [1.11, 1.32]; OR 1.32; 95% CI [1.19, 1.47]; OR 1.26; 95% CI [1.16, 1.37]; OR 1.30; 95% CI [1.22, 1.38]) was the only significant correlate of awareness in years 2010–2013, respectively. Among people aware of SDIC, intentions to participate in sport as a result of SDIC have significantly increased over time, F(3, 1662) = 8.88, p <.001. Special events such as SDIC appear to have a role to play as part of a broader strategy to encourage sport participation among Canadians. A challenge for such events remains in reaching inactive people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sharing water is a contentious environmental issue. Irrigation controls the majority of water resources, but international experiences illustrate that irrigators are reluctant to share their water. How can resource managers achieve acceptance of water-sharing policies to meet the changing needs of society? This study focuses on strategies for selling a political agenda related to water transfers from agriculture. A survey was conducted with 275 irrigators in the western Canadian province of Alberta to assess how attributes that define a water transfer influence irrigators’ acceptance rates. Results indicated that the purpose of the transfer was the most important attribute. Six segments emerged based on perceptions of attributes. Greenies, Water Savers, and Efficiency Savers considered environmental attributes, whereas Personal Gainers and Municipal Friends considered personal and municipal attributes. Nay Sayers rejected transfers regardless of attributes. These results provide recommendations for resource managers attempting to persuade irrigators to share their water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Violent images are often used in advertisements to gain attention and sell products, resulting in complaints to regulatory bodies and concern regarding the effects of these potentially offensive advertisements on society. This paper presents the results of a survey of 930 university students from six countries to determine which personal and attitudinal variables have a significant influence on their attitudes toward advertisements with violent images. The results indicate that gender, country, intensity of religious beliefs, economic inclination, and products (social/political groups) produced the strongest reaction. These factors should be considered when advertisers run local or global campaigns with violent images. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The extended parallel process model (EPPM) proposes fear appeals are most effective when they combine threat and efficacy. Three studies conducted in the workplace safety context examine the use of various EPPM factors and their effects, especially multiplicative effects. Study 1 was a content analysis examining the use of EPPM factors in actual workplace safety messages. Study 2 experimentally tested these messages with 212 construction trainees. Study 3 replicated this experiment with 1,802 men across four English-speaking countries—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The results of these three studies (1) demonstrate the inconsistent use of EPPM components in real-world work safety communications, (2) support the necessity of self-efficacy for the effective use of threat, (3) show a multiplicative effect where communication effectiveness is maximized when all model components are present (severity, susceptibility, and efficacy), and (4) validate these findings with gory appeals across four English-speaking countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The central question this study addressed was why did an Indian petrochemical company fail? We employed the attribution theory to compare attributions for corporate failure at three levels: employees versus promoters, top management versus middle management and non-management, and at a third level, attributions reported in the Western context versus the Indian context. While there is an abundance of literature investigating attributions for corporate failure, ours is one of the first studies to compare these attributions between groups involved in corporate operations. We used event analysis technique while analyzing the Directors’ Reports and while conducting the interviews. Our findings revealed that the promoter's account of corporate failure was self-serving, with negative results attributed to external factors while the top management, for example, showed a tendency for self-serving bias by denying responsibility in the events that led to the eventual demise of the company, and also, due to the actor–observer effect, they attributed the company's failure more heavily to the Indian promoters’ dispositional characteristics such as their inability to manage the external environment, which prevented the company from adapting to its external environment. The findings of this study suggest that different groups report distinct causal attributions for corporate failure. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The current study contributes to the social marketing literature in the American university binge-drinking context in three innovative ways. First, it profiles drinking segments by “values” and “expectancies” sought from behaviors. Second, the study compares segment values and expectancies of two competing behaviors, that is, binge drinking and participation in alternative activities. Third, the study compares the influence of a variety of factors on both behaviors in each segment. Finally, based on these findings and feedback from eight university alcohol prevention experts, appropriate strategies to promote responsible alcohol use for each segment are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines health communication campaigns aimed at preventing alcohol consumption among women who are pregnant or attempting to become pregnant. Relevant communication materials were gathered and a qualitative review was conducted. A majority of the campaigns followed the tenets of protection motivation theory by focusing on the threat variables of severity and vulnerability, as well as emphasizing response efficacy. Few campaigns focused on costs or self-efficacy. Future fetal alcohol spectrum disorders prevention initiatives should attempt to reduce perceived costs, as well as include self-efficacy messages in order to increase women's confidence that they can carry out the recommended actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the cause-related marketing (CRM) experience from a nonprofit (NPO) perspective, using qualitative and quantitative methods. U.S. NPO managers with direct CRM experience (n = 154) participated. Results demonstrate that NPOs have both first order (immediate financial support) and second order (less tangible, longer term) goals when undertaking CRM, and that they generally realize these outcomes, though not always. NPOs primarily seek event support, networking opportunities and public awareness, followed by funding opportunities, with less emphasis on gaining business expertise. This research extends the framework of Gourville and Rangan (2004) by offering a more precise, differentiated model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrition labels on processed foods are becoming more common throughout the world. How do experts and consumers compare at using this information? This study compares three different conceptualizations of expertise—a body of knowledge, better processing skills, and a greater facility for mental accounting. A survey was used to compare 237 consumers over age 40 with 131 dieticians. We examined the focuses, choices, and mental accounting of food selections. The results demonstrate similar focuses, food choices, predictability, and mental accounting by both groups on all three conceptualizations of expertise. This suggests that nutrition labels benefit both consumers and experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poor eating habits are an important public health issue that has large health and economic implications. Many food preferences are established early, but because people make more and more independent eating decisions as they move through adolescence, the transition to independent living during the university days is an important event. To study the phenomenon of food selection, the heath belief model was applied to predict the likelihood of healthy eating among university students. Structural equation modeling was used to investigate the validity of the health belief model (HBM) among 194 students, followed by gender-based analyses. The data strongly supported the HBM. Social change campaign implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) is one of the most preventable sources of developmental abnormalities, and has a singular cause-alcohol consumption during pregnancy. Estimates for the costs of treatment of a single case of FASD range often above one million dollars. The primary strategy for prevention currently centers on no alcohol consumption during pregnancy. However, a sizeable number of North American women currently drink during pregnancy. A literature review examined the behavior of maternal alcohol consumption in order to understand the rationale associated with drinking. Generally, it appears that pregnant women differ by their alcohol consumption habits and their reasons to drink. In an attempt to eliminate FASD, we review a number of educational, legal, and community-based programs that have been used to promote abstinence and examine where they have been successful. Unfortunately, social marketing strategies have received less attention. Several potential applications of social marketing directed to drinking-during- pregnancy campaigns are suggested, and possible contributions to the overall effort are explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars in various fields have speculated that the commercialization of mass media has contributed to the decline of civic culture. They contend that the personal needs emphasized by product-saturated mass media diminish civic-mindedness by creating an individualistic consumption-oriented culture. Despite this critique, some scholars argue that mass media do not erode civic culture in favor of consumer culture; rather, the two are thought to be positively interrelated. Although these contrasting perspectives have been repeatedly discussed, research has rarely empirically investigated these contending claims. We examine media influences on civic and consumer culture while considering the interrelationships of consumer attitudes and behaviors with civic participation using the 2000 DDB Life Style Study. In doing so, we distinguish between news and entertainment media and between socially conscious and status-oriented consumption. A latent variable structural equation model is used to test hypotheses. Results suggest that consumption behaviors and civic participation are not conflicting, even though media foster commercial attitudes and motivate consumption. Overall, media effects on this dynamic are positive, suggesting that critiques of media demobilization may be misplaced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]