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We formulate and solve a finite horizon full balance sheet of a two-mode optimal switching problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost yields. Given the current mode, this model allows for either a switch to the other mode or termination of the project, and this happens for both sides of the balance sheet. A novelty in this model is that the related obstacles are nonlinear in the underlying yields, whereas, they are linear in the standard optimal switching problem. The optimal switching problem is formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We prove the existence of a continuous minimal solution of this system using an approximation scheme and fully characterize the optimal switching strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We propose a stochastic semi-Markovian framework for disability modelling in a multi-period discrete-time setting. The logistic transforms of disability inception and recovery probabilities are modelled by means of stochastic risk factors and basis functions, using counting processes and generalized linear models. The model for disability inception also takes IBNR claims into consideration. We fit various versions of the models into Swedish disability claims data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We consider a finite horizon optimal stopping problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost cash flows of an investment under uncertainty. The optimal problem is first formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We then construct both a minimal solution and a maximal solution using an approximation scheme of the associated system of reflected backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We also address the question of uniqueness of solutions of this system of SDEs. When the dependence of the cash flows on the sources of uncertainty, such as fluctuation market prices, assumed to evolve according to a diffusion process, is made explicit, we obtain a connection between these solutions and viscosity solutions of a system of variational inequalities with interconnected obstacles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stocks are generally used to provide higher returns in the long run. But the dramatic fall in equity prices at the beginning of this century, triggering large underfundings in pension plans, raised the question as to whether stocks can really help mend the asset and liability mismatch. To understand some aspects of this topical issue, we examine whether existing major equity indexes can close this gap, given the liability profile of a typical pension fund. We also compare the non-market capitalization weighted equity indexes recently introduced as Research Affiliates Fundamental Indexes® (RAFI®) with traditional market capitalization weighted equity indexes from an asset and liability management perspective. The analysis of the behavior of the solvency ratio clearly indicates that interest rate sensitive stocks have a large potential to improve the link between assets and liabilities. Compared with market capitalization weighted equity indexes, RAFI® shows a substantially better potential to mend the asset and liability mismatch, while also improving returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare two different models for assets and liabilities for an insurance company that can be considered in the standard approach to solvency assessment and in particular, in determining the required target capital. The first model is suggested by a joint working party by members in CEA, Comité Européen des Assurances, and is based on the duration concept and the second one is an application of ideas by Samuelson and Vasicek. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the work described is to find a pricing model for weather derivatives with payouts depending on temperature. Historical data are used to suggest a stochastic process that describes the evolution of the temperature. Since temperature is a non-tradable quantity, unique prices of contracts in an incomplete market are obtained using the market price of risk. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using an approximation formula as well as Monte Carlo simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the stochastic calculus of variations for the fractional Brownian motion to derive formulas for the replicating portfolios for a class of contingent claims in a Bachelier and a Black–Scholes markets modulated by fractional Brownian motion. An example of such a model is the Black–Scholes process whose volatility solves a stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion that may depend on the underlying Brownian motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A risk process with premiums depending on the current reserve is considered. A large deviation approach is used to obtain upper and lower bounds for the corresponding ruin probabilities. They are expressed in terms of the entropy function of the claims distribution [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]