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Objectives: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict prognosis and outcome in heart failure (HF) patients. To evaluate the optimal cut-off level of BNP to predict death, need for hospitalization, and worsening HF, and also to determine the optimal time to apply the chosen cut-off value.Design: In a sub-study from the Use of PeptideS in Tailoring hEart failure Project or UPSTEP study where tailoring treatment of HF by BNP level was evaluated, we assessed the change in percentage between levels of BNP at study start versus a specific week (2, 6, 10, 16, 24, 36, or 48) during the follow-up period.Results: The optimum cut-off percentage levels were obtained using a Cox proportional regression analysis of death, hospitalization, and worsening HF. A decrease in BNP by less than 40% in week 16 compared with study start and/or a BNP > 300 ng/L presented the highest hazard ratio (HR) for a non-responder to reach a combined endpoint (HR: 2.43; 95% confidence interval or CI: 1.61-3.65; p < 0.00003). This definition gave a 78% risk reduction of cardiovascular (CV) mortality (p > 0.0005) and an 89% risk reduction of HF mortality (p > 0.004), and reduced risk of CV and HF hospitalization for the responders.Conclusions: Patients with a decrease in BNP of more than 40% compared with that at study start and/or a BNP level below 300 ng/L at week 16 had a significantly reduced risk of CV and HF mortality and hospitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]