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Child marriage has adverse consequences for young girls. Cross-sectional research has highlighted several potential drivers of early marriage. We analyse drivers of child marriage using longitudinal data from rural Malawi, where rates of child marriage are among the highest in the world despite being illegal. Estimates from survival models show that 26% of girls in our sample marry before age 18. Importantly, girls report high decision-making autonomy vis-à-vis the decision to marry. We use multivariate Cox proportional hazard models to explore the role of 1) poverty and economic factors, 2) opportunity or alternatives to marriage, 3) social norms and attitudes, 4) knowledge of the law and 5) girls’ agency. Only three factors are consistently associated with child marriage. First, related to opportunities outside marriage, girls lagging in school at survey baseline have significantly higher rates of child marriage than their counterparts who were at or near grade level. Second, related to social norms, child marriage rates are significantly lower among respondents whose caregivers perceive that members of their community disapprove of child marriage. Third, knowledge of the law has a positive coefficient, a surprising result. These findings are aligned with the growing qualitative literature describing contexts where adolescent girls are more active agents in child marriages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over a third of new HIV infections occur in adolescents aged 10–19 globally. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could be a powerful tool for prevention. Understanding more about the drivers of PrEP interest could inform implementation strategies among this age group. Moreover, family dynamics may play a uniquely critical role for this younger age group, thus it is important to gauge whether caregivers would support their children's use of PrEP. We surveyed 2,089 adolescents (aged 10–16) and their caregivers in Malawi during 2017–2018. Data were collected on PrEP interest, factors that may facilitate PrEP use, and preferences for PrEP modality. We used multivariate logistic regression to estimate the association between the above characteristics and PrEP interest. We find that young adolescents are engaging in behaviors that would put them at substantial risk of acquiring HIV, would likely benefit from PrEP, are largely (82%) interested in using such, would prefer to get an injection over taking a daily pill, and are considerably discouraged by the prospect of side effects. Endorsement by caregivers was even greater (87%). Our findings demonstrate initial support for adolescent PrEP, and suggest parents may be a surprising advocate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social science research has shown there is a nearly universal norm of seeking assistance from family members in times of need. However, when do individuals prefer to rely on friends, rather than family members, when they need support? This question has not been carefully addressed. To fill this gap in the literature we examine why rural Malawians – who typically have strong bonds with kin – might prefer to rely on friends instead of family if a crisis were to occur. Using the 2008 and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), we consider how financial and non-financial exchanges with kin, and civic engagement, are associated with the composition of individuals’ support networks. We find the decision to request a friend’s help during a crisis is consistently associated with participation in civic-oriented activities, expanding our understanding of the determinants of different risk-pooling strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Female empowerment and positive attitudes towards women’s rights in sexual relationships have been found to be key elements of successful behaviour-based HIV prevention programmes. However, HIV prevention programmes that do not specifically engage with gender issues may also affect attitudes and beliefs towards women’s rights within sexual relationships. Using data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health we compare measures of female empowerment and changing gender norms between intervention participants and non-participants. Results suggest that female intervention participants were more likely than non-participants to believe that: (1) women have more rights within sexual relationships in general and (2) women have the right to protect themselves against HIV risk (indicating possible increases in female self-efficacy in making HIV prevention decisions). Male intervention participants showed no substantial positive change in attitudes towards women’s rights. These results highlight an important positive effect of HIV prevention programmes on women’s attitudes towards their own rights. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community-level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger when shocks and school enrolment are reported by men as compared with women. However, we cannot conclude with statistical confidence that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks is larger when reported by males than when reported by females. Similarly, although the point estimates suggest that the impact of community-level shocks on the school enrolment of children is larger than that of idiosyncratic shocks, we cannot conclude with statistical significance that the impacts of community-level and idiosyncratic shocks are different. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Fertility throughout East Asia has fallen rapidly over the last five decades and is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 in every country in the region. Using South Korea as a case study, we argue that East Asia's ultra-low fertility rates can be partially explained by the steadfast parental drive to have competitive and successful children. Parents throughout the region invest large amounts of time and money to ensure that their children are able to enter prestigious universities and obtain top jobs. Accordingly, childrearing has become so expensive that the average couple cannot afford to have more than just one or two children. The trend of high parental investment in child education, also known as ‘education fever’, exemplifies the notion of ‘quality over quantity’ and is an important contributing factor to understanding low-fertility in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Twins have been extensively used in economics, sociology, and behavioral genetics to investigate the role of genetic endowments on a broad range of social, demographic, and economic outcomes. However, the focus in these literatures has been distinct: The economic literature has been primarily concerned with the need to control for unobserved endowments-including as an important subset, genetic endowments-in analyses that attempt to establish the impact of one variable, often schooling, on a variety of economic, demographic, and health outcomes. Behavioral genetic analyses have mostly been concerned with decomposing the variation in the outcomes of interest into genetic, shared environmental, and non-shared environmental components, with recent multivariate analyses investigating the contributions of genes and the environment to the correlation and causation between variables. Despite the fact that twins studies and the recognition of the role of endowments are central to both of these literatures, they have mostly evolved independently. In this paper, we develop formally the relationship between the economic and behavioral genetic approaches to the analyses of twins, and we develop an integrative approach that combines the identification of causal effects, which dominates the economic literature, with the decomposition of variances and covariances into genetic and environmental factors that are the primary goal of behavioral genetic approaches. We apply this integrative ACE-β approach to an illustrative investigation of the impact of schooling on several demographic outcomes such as fertility and nuptiality and health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study presented here is an investigation of the importance of social interactions to perceptions of the risk of AIDS, and explores spousal communication about the AIDS epidemic in rural Malawi. A fixed-effects analysis based on longitudinal data collected in 1998 and 2001 shows that social interactions on the subject of HIV/AIDS have significant and substantial effects on respondents’ perceptions of the risk of HIV/AIDS, even after controlling for unobserved factors that affect the selection of social networks. These effects are more complex than previously thought. The dominant mechanisms—social learning and social influence—are found to vary by sex and by region, because of regional variations in the marriage pattern and the resulting implications for the formation of local social networks. The conclusion of the study is that rather than fostering denial and inaction, social interactions are an important vector of change in the face of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the authors' views in response to a comment on their paper "Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe," published in a 2004 issue of the journal "Population Studies." In their comment, the critics have argued that the cohort-fertility analysis in the aforesaid paper is weak on theoretical grounds and the empirical analysis is incomplete. The authors affirm that they agree with the comment that, as a society, the Netherlands differs from Southern Europe and even more from Central and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, from a contemporary global perspective, these differences should not be overemphasized. They say that in their analyses, they used the Netherlands as a reference case of a country with an extraordinary pattern of late childbearing that is not associated with lowest-low fertility levels. However, the critics believe that these unusual characteristics invalidate the use of the Dutch example in the paper. So, this criticism is misconceived. It is precisely the unusualness of the fertility pattern in the Netherlands that makes it a useful reference point in the study of low and lowest-low fertility.

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relationship of low and lowest-low period fertility to cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviour such as leaving the parental home, marriage, and women's labour force participation. Our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between total fertility and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births, and the labour force participation of women reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. By the end of the 1990s there was also no longer evidence that divorce levels were negatively associated with fertility levels. We argue that lowest-low fertility has been particularly associated with a 'falling behind' of cohort fertility at higher birth orders and later ages. From these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s was accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known relationships that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behaviors related to fertility constitute primary candidates for investigating the relevance of evolutionary influences and biological dispositions on contemporary human behaviors. Using female Danish twin cohorts born 1870–1968, we document important transformations in the relative contributions of “nurture” and “nature” to within‐cohort variations in early and complete fertility, and we point toward a systematic relation between the socioeconomic context of cohorts and the relevance of genetic and shared environmental factors. This transformation is most striking for early fertility where genetic factors strengthen over time and are consistent with up to 50 percent of the variation in early fertility in most recent cohorts. Understanding this emerging relevance of genetic factors is of central importance because early fertility constitutes an important determinant of complete fertility levels in low‐fertility societies, and because teenage motherhood and early childbearing are often associated with negative life‐cycle consequences. Moreover, our results emphasize the need for socially and contextually informed analyses of nature and nurture that allow both factors to influence human reproductive behavior over time. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article presents a comment on an article which discussed a model of European age-specific fertility patterns using Hadwiger functions. The authors fit the functions to an array of European populations and, in order to interpret the parameters, show the high correlation between a and total fertility, c and mean age of the mother, and ab/c and the modal age specific fertility rate. The authors reflect the analytical relationship between the parameters of the Hadwiger function and the properties of such a function which are developed. As the authors conjectured, c is needed in the analytical mean age of the Hadwiger function, and the analytical total fertility is proportional to a. The analytical total fertility of Hadwiger functions can be obtained by integration over an interval, which requires the c parameter to be positive. In exploring the relationship between the modal age at childbearing and the Hadwiger parameters, the modal age was obtained by differentiating f(x) with respect to x and equaling to zero. The a parameter is just an intensity parameter which should not affect the modal age. The c parameter reflects mean age at childbearing, and that there should be a direct relationship between mean and modal ages.

Fluctuations in birth rates in developed countries have been considerably less regular than many explanatory theories suggest. This paper argues that social interaction, i.e., the dependence of individuals' fertility decisions on the fertility behavior of other population members, is relevant even in developed countries. A formal model for investigating the static and dynamic consequences of social interaction for fertility is developed, and its aggregate implications are tested using a Markov switching regression model. The findings show that social interaction can lead to fluctuations in birth rates that are swift and difficult to foresee, and that these fluctuations are likely to be asymmetric: spells of low fertility have a considerably higher persistence than spells of high fertility. The paper suggests that high birth rates are likely to be followed by spells of low fertility. Transitions from low to high fertility occur at a substantially lower rate than transitions in the opposite direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a Marginal Structural Model (MSM) with inverse probability of treatment weights was used to estimate the causal effect of HIV positivity awareness on condom use and multiple sexual partners using data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH). Cumulative awareness of HIV positivity was measured as the number of times an individual was aware of their positive HIV status. Awareness of HIV positivity was associated with increased condom use (OR=2.22, 95%: (1.79, 2.75)). Only among women was it associated with multiple sexual partners (OR=1.76, 95%: (1.36, 2.28)). The use of MSM (over standard regression models for repeated measures) should be encouraged as it is more suited for assessing the cumulative treatment effects while controlling for time-varying confounders in longitudinal studies. There is a need to up-scale interventions that promote HIV testing, awareness of HIV status, and prevention of HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]