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Diabetes affects an estimated 25.8 million people in the United States and is one of the leading causes of death. A major safety concern in treating diabetes is the occurrence of hypoglycemic events. Despite this concern, the current methods of analyzing hypoglycemic events, including the Wilcoxon rank sum test and negative binomial regression, are not satisfactory. The aim of this article is to propose a new model to analyze hypoglycemic events with the goal of making this model a standard method in industry. Our method is based on a gamma frailty recurrent event model. To make this method broadly accessible to practitioners, this article provides many details of how this method works and discusses practical issues with supporting theoretical proofs. In particular, we make efforts to translate conditions and theorems from abstract counting process and martingale theories to intuitive and clinical meaningful explanations. For example, we provide a simple proof and illustration of the coarsening at random condition so that the practitioner can easily verify this condition. Connections and differences with traditional methods are discussed, and we demonstrate that under certain scenarios the widely used Wilcoxon rank sum test and negative binomial regression cannot control type 1 error rates while our proposed method is robust in all these situations. The usefulness of our method is demonstrated through a diabetes dataset which provides new clinical insights on the hypoglycemic data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Conducting randomized controlled trials for medications targeting rare diseases presents significant challenges, due to the scarcity of participants and ethical considerations. Under such circumstances, leveraging real-world data (RWD) to generate supporting evidence may be accepted by the regulatory agency. Constructing an external control arm (ECA) from RWD for a single-arm trial has been conducted occasionally. A complication in this design is that patients from RWD may be eligible at multiple time points. Most studies approach this by selecting one time point as the index date for ECA patients. Here, we propose a novel design for externally controlled trials that permits the inclusion of ECA patients at various entry points. Accompanying this design, we make recommendations for statistical methods to account for measured confounders, limited sample size, within-subject correlation, and potential overdispersion inherent in count data. Furthermore, we present an idea for the blinding process for this type of study. We have conducted a series of simulations to assess the performance of the design and statistical methods in terms of bias, type I error, and efficiency, as compared to the approach of selecting only one entry per ECA patient. The study and parameter setup were based on a hypothetical case inspired by a rare disease study. The results indicate that allowing multiple entries for ECA patients can lead to enhanced performance in many aspects. It provides a controlled type I error, robustness against certain model misspecifications, and a moderate power improvement compared with selecting a single entry per ECA patient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]