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A large-scale Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model of the global economy is used to investigate the determinants of the Great Moderation and the transition to the Great Recession (1986–2010). Beside the global-economy perspective, the model presents the novel feature of a broad range of included financial variables and risk factor measures. The results point to various mechanisms related to the global monetary policy stance (Great Deviation), financial institutions’ risk-taking behaviour (Great Leveraging) and global imbalances (savings glut), determining aggregate fluctuations. Finally, an out-of-sample forecasting exercise provides evidence against the ‘end of the Great Moderation’ view, showing that the timing, though not the dimension of the Great Recession episode (2008–2010), was predictable on the basis of the same macroeconomic mechanisms at work over the two previous decades. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article investigates the statistical features of the US OIS spreads term structure during the recent financial turmoil, originating from the subprime crisis and the ensuing euro area sovereign debt crisis. By means of a comprehensive econometric modelling strategy, new insights on US money market dynamics during the latter events are achieved. In particular, three common factors, bearing the interpretation of level, slope and curvature factors, are extracted from the term structure of US OIS spreads; the latter are found to convey additional information, relatively to commonly used credit risk measures like the TED or the BAA-AAA corporate spreads, which might be exploited, also within a composite indicator, for the construction of a macroeconomic risk barometer and macroeconomic forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the sources of macroeconomic comovement among G-7 countries? Two main candidate explanations may be singled out: common shocks and common transmission mechanisms. In the article it is shown that they are complementary, rather than alternative, explanations. By means of a large-scale Factor Vector Autoregressive (FVAR) model, allowing for full economic and statistical identification of all global and idiosyncratic shocks, it is found that both common disturbances and common transmission mechanisms of global and country-specific shocks account for business cycle comovement in the G-7 countries. Moreover, spillover effects of foreign idiosyncratic disturbances seem to be a less important factor than the common transmission of global or domestic shocks in the determination of international macro-economic comovements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article a realized regression version of the Britten-Jones (BJ, 1999) portfolio selection approach is proposed, yielding a conditional mean-variance efficient portfolio selection strategy. Application to euro area stock markets diversification, differently from other standard approaches, actually yields a balanced and stable allocation of wealth, free from the problem of corner solutions, suggesting that diversification among euro area stock markets is still feasible and desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, a small-scale macroeconomic system is estimated in the framework of a common trends model, in order to explore the dynamic interactions between real house prices, consumption expenditure and output in the US and major European economies. The results point to important differences across countries, with long-run house price effects on consumption only for France, Germany and the US. However, interactions between house prices and consumption are detected in all countries at shorter horizons, with important implications of the current unwinding of the sub-prime crisis for real activity. Evidence for international comovements in the common trend component of house price dynamics is also found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What explains the cross section of expected returns for the 25 size/value Fama-French (FF) portfolios? It is found that modelling time-varying betas is important to explain the cross section of expected returns, as well as to comply with the time series restriction on Jensen-alpha. Support for a modified version of the conditional Jagannathan and Wang's (1996) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is found, where implementation is carried out in the realized beta framework proposed in this article. About 63% of the cross-sectional variability of the expected returns for the 25 FF size and value sorted portfolios is then found to be explained by this parsimonious two-variable model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, a multivariate unobserved components model for returns and net inflows into hedge funds is employed to assess whether the flows of funds into the industry are dynamically related to returns. The econometric model is used to estimate expected flows and expected returns as unobserved components. The results point to strong autocorrelation in both flows and returns and to positive correlation between past returns and future flows, while the evidence concerning the linkage between past flows and future returns is mixed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally co-integrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the common persistent feature in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterized by all the properties that an ‘ideal’ core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the relation between the stock market and income distribution? There are many potential links between the two, some of which are associated with the relations of each of these with the rate of economic growth. An empirical analysis set in the framework of the neoclassical growth model shows that the key mechanisms explaining income distribution in the US operate through the labour market rather than through the stock market, even though stock market shocks appear to have some short time relevance for the dynamics of income distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we investigate the long-run link between inflation and money growth in the United States since 1960. A measure of the long-run inflation trend is constructed, which bears the interpreation of ‘monetary’ inflation rate and is directly related to the excess nominal money growth process (money growth less output growth), as postulated by the quantity theory. Consistent with the memory characteristics of the series, their fractional integration and cointegration properties are taken into account in empirical modelling. The proposed measure is then compared with several existing measures of ‘core inflation’, aimed at capturing long-run inflation dynamics but unrelated to money growth. The ‘monetary’ long-run inflation rate performs well in out-of-sample forecasting exercises especially over a 2–3-year horizon, yielding valuable information to monetary policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FIGARCH models are estimated with data sets of daily and 30 minute returns on the Deutsche mark-US dollar exchange rate. The results point to the importance of accurately modelling the persistence properties of volatility in terms of structural breaks and long memory, and controlling for stochastic intradaily repetitive patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the time series properties of the Fama–French factor returns volatility processes are studied. Among the original findings of this paper, structural breaks in the volatility of the factors, and strong coincidence between the timing of the breaks in the volatility of the market portfolio and the timing of the breaks in the volatility of SMB are emphasized. Moreover, analyses of the break free series show that two common long memory factors drive the long-run evolution of the series. The first factor mainly affects the volatility of the market and the volatility of SMB, while the second one mainly affects the volatility of HML. These results imply that the time-varying volatility of stocks is driven mainly by the time-varying volatility of the market as a whole and of the HML portfolio, while the volatility of SMB does not seem to be an independent driving force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The definition of price stability adopted by the ECB has recently been criticized in the literature, particularly for being unable to fully anchor inflation expectations and creating a deflation risk. In the paper empirical evidence is provided against these claims. Despite the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions for the euro area since 2001, monetary policy management has lead to the setting of the policy rate at levels compatible with trend inflation (the long-run inflation forecast) in the range 1–3%, and therefore without affecting negatively the inflation outlook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies the euro area money market from a microstructure perspective. The focus is on the empirical estimation of the factors underlying the volatility of the overnight interest rate and its transmission along the money market yield curve. Two sources of volatility are separated out, one related to the institutional features of the operational framework and payments system, and the other, related to the impact of policy decisions. A novel data set is used composed of hourly observations and covering several short-term interest rates. The sample runs from 4/12/2000 to 31/05/2002. Two common long-memory factors are found to drive the volatility processes. The first explains the long-memory dynamics of the shortest maturity. The other explains the transmission of volatility to other maturities. It is shown that announcements of interest rate changes exercise the strongest impact on the volatility of the shortest maturities. Persistent effects of liquidity shortages that are transmitted along the money market yield curve are documented. However, these effects are not the rule and can be explained by exceptional circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Has deflation contributed to the long lasting stagnation of the Japanese economy? Could the Bank of Japan have stopped deflation by implementing a more expansionary monetary policy? Tentative answers are probably not to the first question, and probably yes to the second question. It is found that the total cost of deflation over the period 1995–2003 has been close to a 1.1% rate of lost GDP. Yet, on the basis of statistical significance and robustness to specification choices, this evidence is not compelling. On the other hand, the estimated positive linkage between nominal base money growth and inflation is significant and robust, even given current economic conditions. However, in order to be inflationary, monetary policy should have been more expansionary than what actually observed, even since the launch of the quantitative easing in 2001. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper shows that the multiple squared coherence at the zero frequency for fractionally differenced (fractionally) cointegrated processes is equal to one, while the simple squared coherences assume a value greater than zero but lower than one. In the bivariate case the multiple and simple squared coherence coincide and, therefore, the simple squared coherence at the zero frequency assumes a unitary value. It is also found that processes that are not fractionally cointegrated show, in general, positive, but lower than one, multiple and simple squared coherences at the zero frequency. In the case the dependent and independent variables are driven by different long memory factors, i.e. in the case when the dependent variable is orthogonal at the zero frequency to any of the regressors, the squared multiple coherence will assume a zero value, as any of the squared simple coherences. It is finally shown that all the above results also hold for the series in levels, as the frequency tends to zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the loading matrix for the common factors for fractionally cointegrated long memory processes. A Monte Carlo simulation exercise reveals that the proposed estimator has already good properties with relatively small sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a common trends model, a forward-looking 'core' inflation measure is estimated for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the 'two-pillar' monetary policy strategy of the ECB which focuses on medium-term inflation prospects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]