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This article investigates the differences between candidate turnover at national legislative and European Parliament elections. Multilevel analysis is applied on original data containing 2754 electoral lists, clustered within 79 political parties, within 48 national and European elections. These comparative data allow (1) to test hypotheses on second-order EU elections within the context of electoral recruitment and (2) to measure the effect of systemic turnover drivers, which in turn may differ for EP elections. As such, this paper builds further on the emerging literature on candidate renewal by offering a comparative perspective and understanding the particular dynamic for EP elections. Results suggest that candidate turnover is lower at EP elections. Moreover, the effects of turnover drivers differ at EP elections: candidate turnover is lower on lists of fringe parties at the European level and elections with higher electoral volatility are characterised by higher candidate turnover, particularly at European elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Re-election of all incumbent Presidents, most of them from the Socialist Party (PS) or the Republicans (LR), was the main feature of the French regional elections of 20 and 27 June 2021. As a result, regional government remained controlled by the two parties that have dominated French politics since the early 1980s, even though both lost the 2017 presidential and legislative elections to newcomer Emmanuel Macron. The second-order elections model captures part of these dynamics, but the candidate-centered politics model provides a more appropriate framework to understand the general pattern of these regional elections. In a context of increasing split-ticket voting between regional and departmental elections, which were held at the same time, an era of divided government seems to have emerged since 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a cross-national comparison of the aggregate turnout rates in local elections across 21 European countries between 1990 and 2014. The study confirms that the aggregate turnout in local elections is almost always lower than the turnout in the preceding parliamentary election; yet, the national–local turnout gap varies considerably across European countries. The level of local autonomy, i.e. the amount of power and discretion available at the local level turned out to be only a weak explanation of this participation gap. The Local Autonomy Index (LAI) had a positive effect on the local voter turnout, which is in line with the 'less at stake' argument of the second-order elections theory, yet the magnitude of this effect is rather small. The synchronization of electoral cycles plays a much more significant role in explaining the aggregate local voter turnout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2019 provincial elections marked a spectacular victory for challenger party Forum voor Democratie and a substantial defeat for two government parties. The Liberals, led by prime minister Rutte, which had been the largest party in many recent elections, came second in a fragmenting party-political landscape. The Greens were the other opposition winner, while two opposition parties at the ideological extremes, the Socialist Party and the Freedom Party, suffered considerable losses. Regional or non-statewide parties remained a marginal phenomenon: they attained on average three percent of the votes. Further illustrating the heavily nationalized nature of the provincial elections, the campaign mainly focused on national issues such as climate change and the possible loss of the majority for the coalition parties in the Senate, which is elected by the provincial councils. The latter clearly affected turnout, which rose to over 56%, the highest turnout in provincial elections in thirty years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students of local elections have had a lasting interest in Dahl and Tufte's conjecture that jurisdictions with smaller populations should enjoy higher voter turnout rates than their larger counterparts. This hypothesis is typically tested at the aggregate level. While valuable, such aggregate-level studies are nonetheless prone to ecological fallacy; inhabitants of smaller municipalities may differ systematically from those of the larger ones as regards relevant individual-level traits. In order to overcome this difficulty, we analyse data from a large-scale survey of more than 18,000 respondents from over 1,000 municipalities located in 14 countries of Central and Eastern Europe. We thus simultaneously evaluate the effects of municipal population size and those of citizens' individual traits. We demonstrate that inhabitants of smaller municipalities indeed tend to vote more in local elections, but not necessarily in national ones. The effects of respondents' individual traits are similar for both election types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One year after the birth of an unprecedented government characterised by the strong populist stance of both coalition partners (M5S and the Lega) and amid a growing polarisation in party positions on a number of political issues, the European and regional elections of 2019–20 marked an important test for Italy. After presenting the results of the 2019–20 election cycle, the article investigates the most salient lines of party competition and the varying degrees of polarisation. Our analysis shows two kinds of polarisation: the first being the intra-coalitional polarisation which characterised the first Conte government; while the second, affecting the party system as a whole, is driven by the electoral rise of far-right parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a general interpretation of the 2019 European parliamentary elections, with a special focus on the vote in Italy and on its consequences for the functioning of the Italian political system. It also offers a short description of the articles included in this special issue dedicated to the 2019 E.U. election. In the last section this introduction discusses critically the interpretation of the 2019 European vote as a case of so-called 'second-order elections'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between October 2012 and May 2015, all Italian regions went to the polls to renew their assemblies and executives. In contrast to previous election rounds, only seven out of fifteen ordinary regions held their elections in (horizontal) simultaneity. For the first time, some ordinary regions held their elections in (vertical) simultaneity with the national or European election. The election results were somehow exceptional in three ways. First, they were affected by an extremely low level of turnout vis-à-vis previous regional elections and, in line with the second-order election model, vis-a-vis the 2013 general election. Turnout was, however, comparatively higher in the special status regions governed by dominant ethno-regionalist parties (Aosta Valley and South Tyrol); and in the regions that voted in vertical simultaneity with the national and (to a lesser extent) European elections. Secondly, in contrast to previous regional elections, competition for regional executives was (at least) tri-polar, following the pattern that emerged in the 2013 general election. Thirdly, in contrast to the predictions of the second-order election model, this round of regional elections did not punish the national incumbent. Indeed, the Democratic Party won fifteen out of twenty-one regional presidencies, taking nine of them from the centre-right. Finally, it is worth stressing that the combination of low turnout and tri-polar competition, in conjunction with presidential executives and majoritarian voting systems, raises serious issues of democratic legitimacy, as most regional presidents are voted in office by between a fifth and a quarter of registered voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two years into the first term of the right wing Conservative/Progress Party coalition government, the 2015 Norwegian local elections displayed many features of a ‘second-order’ election: the governing parties lost considerable support, minor parties did well and voter turnout was low. For the second local elections in a row, political circumstances prevented the far right Progress Party from mobilizing on the anti-immigration issue, adding to the burdens of governing nationally for the first time. The Green Party leveraged its 2013 entry into the national parliament into record support, consolidating the progress made in the 2011 local elections. Although the elections were shaped by national politics, municipal and county variation shows that local political factors did matter. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) election in Spain took place in a context of deep economic recession and distrust of political institutions. These conditions triggered an unprecedented electoral response through which Podemos, a radical leftist party created shortly before the election, obtained eight per cent of votes and gained electoral momentum thereafter, seriously threatening the two-party-plus system. Using data from a panel survey, our analyses reveal some unexpected findings. The intensity of protest voting and the timing of the contest within the national electoral cycle have had a major impact on national politics – with the possibility of eventually producing a party-system change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Considering the potential impact of the economic crisis, the main goal of the article is to ascertain whether the second-order election model lost ground in Portugal during the 2014 election to the European Parliament. We conclude that this was a more second-order contest than ever. The explanation for the resilience of the model relies on a mismatch between the citizens’ growing potential for contestation and the low politicisation of European Union (EU) issues at the party level. However, the election outcomes also reveal the significance of EU issues for the radical left. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article examines the 2014 European election in Greece. Held two years after the double-earthquake elections of 2012 and with the country still mired in a protracted economic crisis, our findings largely support the conclusion that the post-‘earthquake’ European election of 2014 can be classified as one of the most classic second-order elections in the history of Greek elections. Both ideology and attribution of blame for the ongoing economic crisis to the PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) and ND (New Democracy) governments to a large extent explain the victory of SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left). At the same time, however, more fundamental positions towards European unification appear to have become more relevant to party choice for the first time since the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The 2014 European Parliament elections saw an unprecedented surge of support for Eurosceptic parties. This article provides an overview of the ideologically highly diverse Eurosceptic camp in the European Parliament and addresses the causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote. Based on an analysis of aggregate election results and opinion-poll data, it argues that the electoral success of Eurosceptic parties cannot be dismissed as a mere protest vote against unpopular governments. Instead, fundamental worries about the effects of European Union (EU) policies and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics lie at the heart of the Eurosceptic success. The selection of Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the Commission, backed by overwhelming majorities in the European Council and the European Parliament, suggests that Eurosceptics, despite their considerable electoral support, will continue to be excluded from the EU's corridors of power. This strategy of exclusion provides the ideal breeding ground for an even stronger Eurosceptic backlash in five years' time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the considerable increase in its powers over recent decades, this article asks how far the European Parliament (EP) is an attractive place to build a legislative career. Using a theory of members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as policy-seekers, it shows that MEPs are indeed building careers in this supranational institution. Turnover is in decline in the EP and on its committees, average length of service has increased and greater proportions of MEPs aspire to stay than previously. Looking at the 30 years since direct elections began, policy influence and office benefits are associated with lower likelihood of exiting the EP while being on the geographical periphery of the EU makes MEPs more likely to leave. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Elections to the European Parliament (EP) fall into the category of second-order national elections. In these types of elections voters behave differently when casting their vote. But what about political parties: do they behave differently in EP elections than in national parliamentary elections? This article draws on available electoral data related to women's representation in the Czech Republic and Slovakia to explicitly link the second-order election (SOE) model to independent actions of political parties. The results show that women candidates have (1) more positions and better ranking on ballot lists; as well as (2) better chances of getting elected when running in SOEs in Slovakia but not in the Czech Republic. In order to explain this variance in results, the most similar system design (MSSD) was applied. The findings from the MSSD indicate that three variables have the potential to explain this variance in representation of women in EP elections between the countries: parties’ positions on European integration dimension, the numerical size of national legislature, and preferential voting. The variable parties’ positions on European integration have the highest explanatory power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irish presidential elections have sometimes been characterised as part of a ‘culture war’, where different sides of a cultural and policy space compete for the ‘soul of Ireland’. Alternatively, voters might choose on the basis of partisan loyalties, candidate characteristics, or as a way of punishing, rewarding or influencing government. This article argues that the 2011 presidential election was almost an ideology-free zone where candidates' positions on specific issues were less important than their ability to withstand character tests. It argues that despite Higgins's landslide victory, his support was soft, and only came to him after all other candidates had been effectively eliminated from contention by allegations during the campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the context, actors, campaign, and results of the Catalan election of 2010, which took place in a context of economic recession and growing political discontent. I argue that certain circumstances concurred in this particular contest to enhance the influence of factors pertaining to the first-order (i.e. national) arena as compared with the influence of second-order (i.e. region specific) factors. As a result, regional incumbent support was found to be largely driven by evaluations of national incumbent performance, which worked against the tripartite coalition government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article looks for common sources to explain the systematic electoral change produced between regional and general elections in Catalonia and Scotland. In both territories, regional voting shows a systematic pattern whereby nationalist parties tend to have more success in the regional than in the national arena. Looking for differences and similarities between the two patterns, we first revise the literature on less mobilizing elections and the different answers given to electoral change across arenas in different contexts. Secondly, we use particular data to compare those who remain loyal to the main parties with those who alternate between them depending on the electoral level. Lastly, we test whether this electoral change is better explained by the idea that regional elections are dependent on, autonomous or different from national politics using multivariate analysis. Two main conclusions emerge. On the one hand, electoral change is produced by change in the salient issues and a change in the main contending parties at each level. For those who change their vote, the regional arena is different from the national one. On the other hand, the evaluation of contextual elements by the party-switchers is related more to autonomous considerations of the regional arena than to dependent evaluations of the national one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the 2009 European Parliament elections in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta. First, it presents the general background and key issues of the electoral campaigns in these six countries. Second, it tries to answer the question of whether or not these elections in Southern Europe conform to the theoretical framework of the national second-order election model. The major conclusion is that the hypotheses of this model are partially confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Second-order election models are based on several assumptions about individual-level motivations. These can be summarized by a transfer hypothesis: individuals presumably apply their evaluations of national-level phenomena to the EU level when voting in EU elections. In contrast, a suis generis hypothesis stipulates that voters evaluate the EU on its own performance terms. This paper tests these competing hypotheses. We find considerable support for both models. In the election context, where national institutions — political parties — dominate the representation process, the transfer hypothesis receives considerable support. However, we also find surprisingly strong support for the first-order hypothesis: electoral choice in EU election is influenced to a considerable extent by EU level factors. Furthermore, when voters evaluate the mechanisms of representation more broadly without a focus on elections per se, we find much more support for the first-order than the transfer hypothesis — voters clearly separate the two levels and evaluate each level on its own terms. These results have important implications, both for how we analyse voters' decisions in European elections, and how we view the sophistication of voters more broadly in the context of multi-layered institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]