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Your search keyword '"Rohani, Pejman"' showing total 33 results
Start Over Author "Rohani, Pejman" Publisher the royal society
33 results on '"Rohani, Pejman"'

3. Supporting Information from Anticipating infectious disease re-emergence and elimination: a test of early warning signals using empirically based models

Author

Tredennick, Andrew T., O’Dea, Eamon B., Ferrari, Matthew J., Park, Andrew W., Rohani, Pejman, and Drake, John M.

Abstract

Timely forecasts of the emergence, re-emergence and elimination of human infectious diseases allow for proactive, rather than reactive, decisions that save lives. Recent theory suggests that a generic feature of dynamical systems approaching a tipping point—early warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD)—can anticipate disease emergence and elimination. Empirical studies documenting CSD in observed disease dynamics are scarce, but such demonstration of concept is essential to the further development of model-independent outbreak detection systems. Here, we use fitted, mechanistic models of measles transmission in four cities in Niger to detect CSD through statistical EWS. We find that several EWS accurately anticipate measles re-emergence and elimination, suggesting that CSD should be detectable before disease transmission systems cross key tipping points. These findings support the idea that statistical signals based on CSD, coupled with decision-support algorithms and expert judgement, could provide the basis for early warning systems of disease outbreaks.

Published
2022
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6. Online appendices from Five approaches to the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 without intensive social distancing

Author

Drake, John M., Rohani, Pejman, Dahlin, Kyle, and Handel, Andreas

Abstract

Initial efforts to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 relied on intensive social distancing measures such as school and workplace closures, shelter-in-place orders and prohibitions on the gathering of people. Other non-pharmaceutical interventions for suppressing transmission include active case finding, contact tracing, quarantine, immunity or health certification, and a wide range of personal protective measures. Here we investigate the potential effectiveness of these alternative approaches to suppression. We introduce a conceptual framework represented by two mathematical models that differ in strategy. We find both strategies may be effective, although both require extensive testing and work within a relatively narrow range of conditions. Generalized protective measures such as wearing face masks, improved hygiene and local reductions in density are found to significantly increase the effectiveness of targeted interventions.

Published
2021
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25. Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of rabies exposure in vampire bats: implications for transmission and control

Author

Streicker, Daniel G., primary, Recuenco, Sergio, additional, Valderrama, William, additional, Gomez Benavides, Jorge, additional, Vargas, Ivan, additional, Pacheco, Víctor, additional, Condori Condori, Rene E., additional, Montgomery, Joel, additional, Rupprecht, Charles E., additional, Rohani, Pejman, additional, and Altizer, Sonia, additional

Published
2012
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