Search

Fil: Walsh, Matthew. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Observatorio de la Deuda Social Argentina; Argentina Fil: Walsh, Matthew. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnica; Argentina Fil: Poy, Santiago. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Observatorio de la Deuda Social Argentina; Argentina Fil: Poy, Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnica; Argentina Fil: Tuñón, Ianina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Observatorio de la Deuda Social Argentina; Argentina Abstract: The Universal Child Allowance (AUH) is an Argentine cash transfer programme that conditions payment to parents on the fulfilment of health and education conditions for their children. While the impact of the AUH on education is well known, its effects on health have been less explored. This paper assesses the direct effect of the programme on children attending routine medical exams and receiving scheduled vaccinations, the health conditions of the programme, along with indirect health-related outcomes to explore the wider potential effects on child health. Using microdata from the Argentine Social Debt Survey (EDSA), a quasi-experimental design is implemented to determine the average treatment effect on AUH recipients. The AUH is found to have no effect on the behaviours on which it is conditioned or on dental visits, but it does increase food security. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for the design and implementation of programme conditionalities. Resumen: La Asignación Universal por Hijo (AUH) es una transferencia monetaria argentina que condiciona el pago al cumplimiento de condicionalidades en salud y educación de los niños. Mientras que el impacto de la AUH en la educación es bien conocido, los de salud han sido menos explorados. El objetivo del documento es evaluar el efecto directo del programa sobre la realización de exámenes médicos y la vacunación, junto con resultados indirectos relacionados con la salud para explorar los efectos más amplios de la AUH. Utilizando microdatos de la Encuesta de Deuda Social Argentina (EDSA), se implementó un diseño cuasiexperimental para determinar el efecto del tratamiento promedio de la AUH. La AUH no tiene efecto sobre los comportamientos en los que está condicionada ni sobre las visitas odontológicas, pero aumenta la seguridad alimentaria. El documento discute las implicaciones de estos resultados para el diseño y la implementación de las condicionalidades del programa.

RESUMEN: Este artículo analiza la relación entre pobreza y conflicto armado en Antioquia, Colombia. El análisis de la pobreza está enmarcado en el enfoque de las capacidades de Sen, el cual conforma la base conceptual del índice de pobreza multidimensional (IPM) desarrollado por Alkire y Foster. El IPM es calculado con información derivada de la base de datos Sisbén, la cual se utiliza para seleccionar la población atendida por los programas de asistencia social del Gobierno colombiano. Este artículo consideró tres dimensiones de pobreza: estándares de vida, salud, y educación. El conflicto armado fue medido por medio de datos de conteo acerca de la ocurrencia de eventos de violencia registrados entre 1996 y 2010 en cada municipalidad de Antioquia. Luego, la relación entre la pobreza y el conflicto armado se analizó mediante métodos exploratorios y no paramétricos como las distribuciones kernel. Los resultados sugieren que el IPM es robusto con respecto a la elección del umbral de pobreza multidimensional. Los mapas de caja y bigotes sugieren que los pobres están localizados en las regiones periféricas de Antioquia. Las distribuciones kernel muestran que las áreas más afectadas por el conflicto, usualmente, tienen altos niveles de pobreza multidimensional. ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the relationship between poverty and armed conflict in Antioquia, Colombia. The poverty analysis it uses is framed according to Sen’s capability approach, which constitutes the conceptual basis for the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) subsequently developed by Alkire and Foster. The MPI is measured employing data from the government database SISBEN, which is used by the Colombian authorities to identify beneficiaries of social assistance programmes. The paper considers three poverty dimensions: living standards, health, and education. Armed conflict is measured using count data on violent events recorded for every municipality in the Department of Antioquia between 1996 and 2010. The relationship between poverty and armed conflict is then analysed using exploratory and non-parametric methods such as kernel distributions. Results suggest that the MPI is robust when compared multidimensional cutoffs. The MPI box-plot maps suggest that poor people are located in Antioquia’s peripheral areas. Kernel distributions show that areas most affected by conflict tend to show higher levels of multidimensional poverty.

International aid in conflict-affected countries is based on the liberal assumption that an inverse relationship exists between violent conflict and development. This paper contests this assumption through a study of the Colombian context that demonstrates violent conflict and development can in fact be interconnected as part of the transition to capitalist modes of production and in the process of state formation. It further argues that a failure by aid agencies to comprehend the complex interaction between conflict and development can result in distorted outcomes in their programming that are detrimental to the stated objectives of achieving peace, development, and justice. La ayuda internacional para países en conflicto está basada en el supuesto liberal de que existe una relación inversa entre conflicto violento y desarrollo. Este artículo refuta este supuesto por medio de un estudio del contexto colombiano que demuestra que, de hecho, el conflicto violento y el desarrollo pueden estar interconectados como parte de la transición a formas de producción capitalistas y el proceso de formación del Estado. También argumenta que la falta de comprensión de la compleja relación entre conflicto y desarrollo por parte de las agencias de ayuda puede generar consecuencias distorsionadas en su programación, que son perjudiciales para el objetivo de lograr la paz, el desarrollo y la justicia.

Este trabajo analiza el impacto de las infraestructuras públicas sobre la productividad de las industrias manufactureras en Colombia entre 1990 y 2005, mediante el enfoque basado en la teoría de la dualidad. Concretamente, estudia los efectos que tiene la inversión en capital público sobre la estructura de costos de la industria, a través de la interrelación de los diferentes factores de producción privados y dicho capital. This paper analyzes the impact of public infrastructure on the productivity of manufacturing industries in Colombia between 1990 and 2005 by focusing on the theory of duality. The paper draws specific attention to the effects of public capital investment on the cost structure of the industry, through their interrelationships with the different private production factors.

Resumen El estudio de la demanda de dinero es importante porque permite comprender los efectos de la política monetaria. En este trabajo se estima la demanda de dinero para quince países de América Latina entre 1996 y 2016 usando el método de cointegración en panel y estimación FMOLS. Adicionalmente, se estima un modelo de factores comunes dinámicos para probar la existencia de tendencias comunes. Los resultados muestran una relación de largo plazo entre la demanda de dinero, el nivel de ingreso y los tipos de interés. Sin embargo, no existe evidencia de factores comunes entre países, lo que es consistente con la heterogeneidad observada en las elasticidades estimadas. Contrario a lo esperado, en varios casos se observa una elasticidad-ingreso mayor a uno, lo que se asocia a incrementos en las percepciones de riesgo de los agentes que afectan sus preferencias por liquidez. Clasificación JEL: E41, C23, C13. Abstract The study of money demand enables us to understand the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. In this paper, we estimate the money demand for 15 Latin American countries from 1996 to 2016, using panel cointegration and FMOLS estimation methods. We also estimate a model of dynamic common factors to test for the existence of common trends between countries. The results show a long run relationship between money demand, income, and interest rates. However, there is no evidence of common factors between countries, which is consistent with the heterogeneity observed in the estimated elasticities. Contrary to what we expected, in several cases, the estimated income elasticity is greater than one, which could be associated with agents’ higher risk perceptions which affect their liquidity preferences. JEL Classification: E41, C23, C13.

Resumen La inversión en la primera infancia es fundamental para un mejor desarrollo en la niñez y sus efectos a largo plazo. Este estudio analizó el impacto de la educación en el desarrollo infantil medido a través del Ages and Stages Questionnaires, Third Edition (ASQ-3). Según información longitudinal de la Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud (Endis), se aplicaron dos métodos cuasiexperimentales: propensityscore matching (PSM) y diferencias en diferencias. Los resultados no son homogéneos para la población considerada, no se encontraron efectos para el total de la muestra, pero sí al considerar la edad de los niños3 . La asistencia educativa tiene resultados negativos sobre la motricidad gruesa para los menores de 40 meses y positivos para los mayores de 40 meses sobre los test de resolución de problemas y el socioindividual. Las políticas de educación temprana resultan fundamentales para contribuir a un adecuado desarrollo infantil. Clasificación JEL: I31, I39, I10. Abstract Investment in childhood is fundamental to healthy child development and positive long-term effects. This paper aims to analyze the impact of early education on child development, measured through: Ages and Stages Questionnaires - Third Edition (ASQ-3). The results are not homogenous for the studied population, and effects are not found when the total sample is considered. A negative and significant effect on gross motor skills was found for children under 40 months. For children over 40 months, the effect of early education on socioindividual tests and problem-solving tests is positive and significant. Early education policies are fundamental to contributing to the improvement child development. JEL classification: I31, I39, I10.

Resumen Este documento describe la evolución de la cobertura de la educación secundaria en Colombia. Combina técnicas de evaluación de impacto y un análisis de costo-beneficio para comparar la calidad de la educación media pública con la privada. Se observa que el crecimiento de la matrícula pública está desplazando a la oferta privada, y se evidencia una gran variación en los resultados en las pruebas Saber 11 entre los colegios públicos. En algunas ciudades y estratos hay estudiantes asistiendo a una oferta pública de menor calidad que la privada disponible, y otros asistiendo a privada en lugares con oferta pública de mejor calidad. Finalmente, se encuentra que el Gobierno podría generar beneficios sociales si incentivara en los hogares, mediante el otorgamiento de becas parciales, el tránsito de colegios públicos a colegios privados. Beneficios similares se podrían generar si el Gobierno regulara la educación privada de baja calidad en las ciudades y estratos con oferta pública de mayor calidad. Clasificación JEL: I22, I24, I25, J24, H52. Abstract This paper describes the evolution of the coverage of secondary education in Colombia. We combine impact evaluation techniques and cost-benefit analysis to compare the quality of public and private secondary education. We document that the increase of the public enrollment is crowding-out the private supply, and we show a considerable variation in the standardized test (Saber 11) results within public schools. In some cities and socioeconomic strata, some students attending public schools of lower quality than the available private schools, and others are atttending to private in places with better available public supply. Finally, our results show that if the government encourages families to transit from public school to private (through partial scholarships award), it could generate social profits. Similar profits could be generated if the government regulates the low quality of private education in some cities and socioeconomic strata with public schools of better quality. JEL Classification: I22, I24, I25, J24, H52.

This paper uses matched survey and administrative data on first-year Economics students who were studying at the Javeriana University in Bogota, Colombia, in 2015 in order to estimate peer effects ...

Este trabajo analiza la contribución de los clústeres para el desarrollo local. Se analiza el caso de los Arreglos Productivos Locales (APL) en los municipios no metropolitanos del Estado de San Pablo-Brasil. Mediante la técnica de descomposición de efectos de Oaxaca Blinder, se examina si existe una brecha de desarrollo local o ?mejor calidad de vida? en los municipios con APL respecto de aquellos donde no hay.Los resultados obtenidos corroboran que los municipios con APL presentan mejores niveles de desarrollo que aquellos sin APL. Sin embargo, tal diferencia responde a las características demográficas y económicas de los municipios con APL, más que a factores inobservables. This paper analyzes the contribution of clusters to local development. The case of the Local Productive Arrangements (APL) in the non-metropolitan municipalities of the Sao Paulo StateBrazil is examined. By means of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique, it is examined if there is a local development gap or if lives conditions are better in municipalities with APL compare to those without. Results obtained indicate that municipalities with APL achieve better development levels than municipalities without APL. However, such difference responds to demographic and economic factors rather than unobservable ones. Fil: Alderete, Maria Veronica. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; Argentina Fil: Bacic, Miguel Juan. Universidade Estadual de Campinas; Brasil

Este ensayo estudia cómo Nelson Estupiñán Bass da cuenta de la dinámica de la creación del tercer espacio en Ecuador con relación a la utopía de progreso socioeconómico que esta arrastra. Contempla la articulación entre “tercer espacio” y “utopía”. Este trabajo, que se apoya en el enfoque sociocrítico, analiza el espacio en Timarán y Cuabú y las inscripciones ideológicas que en ello afloran. Culmina en los siguientes resultados: 1) el tercer espacio es un lugar de intereses y resistencia para el ecuatoriano;y 2) este espacio suscita cierta utopía de desarrollo en el ecuatoriano. This paper studies how Nelson Estupiñán Bass realizes the dynamics in the creation of the third space in Ecuador relative to the utopia of socio-economic progress dragged by the latter. The study focuses on the articulation of the “third space” and the “utopia”. As this work is based on the sociocritical approach, it analyses the space from Timarán y Cuabú and the ideologies that it outcrops. The study deals with the following findings: 1) the third space is a space of interests and resistance for the Ecuadorian and 2) that space create a utopia of development in the Ecuadorian.

This paper studies the geographic distribution of unemployment rates in Colombian urban areas. It introduces measures of spatial correlation and spatial econometric techniques to analyze the dependence in local unemployment rates across municipalities. Results suggest that Colombian municipalities have experienced a polarization process between 1993 and 2005, as municipalities' unemployment rates have followed different evolutions relative to the National average. This process has been accompanied by the creation of unemployment clusters, that is to say, municipalities had very similar unemployment outcomes to those of their neighbors. This analysis uses a spatial Durbin model to explore the influence of various factors in determining differences in regional unemployment rates. According to our findings differences in labor demand, immigration rates, and urbanization are factors behind observed municipal unemployment disparities.

This paper discusses the need to delineate metropolitan areas and current practice in several countries. It argues for the use of a simple algorithm that examines cross-municipality commuting patterns. Municipalities are aggregated iteratively provided they send a share of their commuters, above a given threshold, to the rest of a metropolitan area. The algorithm is implemented on Colombian data and its robustness is assessed. Finally, the properties of the resulting spatial labor market networks are explored. Este artículo analiza la necesidad de definir las áreas metropolitanas y su actual implementación en diversos países. Plantea el uso de un algoritmo sencillo que examina los patrones de los desplazamientos intermunicipales de las personas a su sitio de trabajo. Los municipios son agregados de forma iterativa siempre y cuando envíen un número de personas de un área metropolitana a otra que supere un umbral determinado. Este algoritmo es implementado utilizando datos colombianos y su eficacia es evaluada. Por último, se estudian las propiedades de las redes de mercados laborales espaciales que surgen como resultado del análisis.

In the context of financial crises influenced by the development and burst of housing price bubbles, the detection of exuberant behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of vital importance. This paper applies the bubble-detection methodology developed by Phillips, Shi and Yu (2012) to the most important Colombian residential property market. The empirical results suggest that this housing market experienced a price bubble that began in the second half of 2012. This result holds true under alternative robustness checks, namely alternative price deflators, regression windows and price segments. The only exception is in the case of the low-price segment of the housing market where prices have not increased recently. Bubble episodes, under this approach, consist of periods of explosive behavior of the nominal asset price which are not explained by the evolution of its market returns. En el contexto de crisis financieras influenciadas por el desarrollo y caída en las burbujas de precios de la vivienda, la detección de comportamientos exuberantes en los mercados financieros y la implementación de pruebas diagnósticas de detección temprana son de importancia vital. Este artículo aplica la metodología de detección de burbujas desarrollada por Phillips, Shi y Yu. (2012), al mercado de propiedad residencial más importante en Colombia. Los resultados empíricos sugieren que este mercado de vivienda ha experimentado una burbuja de precios a partir de la segunda mitad del 2012. Este resultado se mantiene para varios chequeos de robustez alternativos, en particular, para diferentes deflactores de precios, ventanas de regresión y segmentos de precio. La única excepción se da en el caso del segmento de precios de vivienda bajos, ya que allí no se han observado incrementos recientes. Los episodios de burbuja, según este enfoque, se definen como periodos de comportamiento explosivo del precio nominal del activo, los cuales no son explicados por la evolución de sus retornos de mercado.

Since 2004, the district of Bogota has built massively schools of great capacity and infraestructure known as Megacolegios (Mega-schools). By 2010, the city counted with 42 new school which were built in the areas of the city with the highest demand for educational access. This paper uses matching techniques to measure the impact of the megacolegios in the students performance on the Saber 11° estandarized test. The results show that the megacolegios have no impact on the students performance. Nevertheless, The megacolegios do mitigate the negative relation between performance and some students characteristics like over age.

This paper appraises quantitatively the efficiency of public expenditure of 15 Latin American countries using cross-country data for averages between 2000 and 2009. For this purpose two non-parametric methods are used: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposal Hull (FDH). Selected output indicators in primary and secondary school are evaluated respect to public spending in education per student. As a study case, Colombia's efficiency scores are compared with the most efficient peers in each of the educational levels to identify best practices and achieve better results.

To date, there is still great controversy as to which exchange rate model should be used or which monetary channel should be considered, when measuring the effects of monetary policy. Since most of the literature relies on structural models to address identification problems, the validity of results largely turn on how accurate these assumptions are in describing the full extent of the economy. In this paper we compare the effects of different types of central bank intervention for the Colombian case during 2000-2012, without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions or without the need to adopt a structural model. Using an event study approach, we find that all types of interventions (international reserve accumulation options, volatility options and discretionary) have been successful according to the smoothing criterion. In particular, volatility options had the strongest effect. Results are robust when using different windows sizes and counterfactuals. Hasta la fecha, hay gran controversia sobre el modelo de tipo de cambio que se debe utilizar o el mecanismo de transmisión que debe ser considerado para medir los efectos de la política monetaria. Dado que la mayoría de la literatura se basa en modelos estructurales como estrategia de identificación, la validez de los resultados depende, en gran medida, de la validez de sus supuestos. Este artículo compara los efectos de diferentes tipos de intervenciones para el caso colombiano durante el período 2000-2012, sin imponer supuestos paramétricos restrictivos y sin la necesidad de adoptar un modelo estructural. Nuestros resultados muestran que todos los tipos de intervención cambiaria (opciones de acumulación de reservas, opciones de volatilidad e intervenciones discrecionales) han tenido éxito según el criterio de suavización en el estudio de eventos. En particular, las opciones de volatilidad parecen haber tenido el mayor efecto. Los resultados son robustos cuando se utilizan ventanas de diferentes tamaños y diferentes escenarios.

The effects of the judicial appeal process in the Colombian legal system have not been thoroughly analyzed. Using an economic approach that conceives the judge as a rational agent and takes into account the system's institutional structure, this paper uses game theory to create different models that predict the judges' decisions when appealing is possible. These are later contrasted with the results of a series of interviews with civil judges to confirm the robustness of their theoretical predictions. Finally, based on this analysis, a set of public policy alternatives is suggested in order to enhance the efficiency of the judicial system as a whole while maintaining a fair and effective administration of justice.

In Colombia, the nineties was a period characterized by significant increases in unemployment, especially since the second half of the decade. Although several reasons have been discussed in order to explain this increase, it has been given very little attention to the effect of technological progress, which showed a significant measured as the growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), it recorded a significant slowdown for the period 1996 - 2000. Through the quantitative application of Pissarides and Vallanti model (2007), that a negative model with economic growth and frictions in the labor market, this paper shows that negative relationship between technological progress and unemployment could only be explained by the dominance of capitalization effect, where lower rates of TFP growth would have discouraged the creation of jobs and generated an unemployment's increase. However, it was found that, even in the extreme case where all technological progress would have operated under this effect, the slowdown in TFP observed during the period 1996-2000 does not explain the increases in unemployment, indicating that other factors different to technological progress are the ones that explain which explain this phenomenon.

In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium fiscal model for the Colombian economy. The model has three main components: the existence of non-Ricardian households, price and wage rigidities, and a fiscal authority that finances government spending partly with public debt. The model is calibrated to capture the empirical evidence on the macroeconomic effects of government spending and it is used to study the effect of an oil price shock under different fiscal policy rules. Our results show that fiscal multipliers in Colombia are positive in a way consistent with the evidence. Our analysis also shows that a structural fiscal rule delivers a better outcome in terms of macroeconomic volatility relative to a balanced budget rule or a countercyclical fiscal rule.

During the second half of the last century Botswana and Singapore experienced an unparalleled economic performance among the Tropical countries. This paper explores and describes the main economic and institutional causes behind the rapid economic development observed in these two economies. The quality of institutions -inherited from the precolonial times and the British rule-, the appropriate integration into the world markets, and the political stability -achieved by their single ruling parties-, played a significant role in the "miracles" of Botswana and Singapore.

In this paper, Mincer equation is used to calculate the returns to education of the working population in Colombia. The study focuses in the relationship between educational returns and the areas where individuals were educated. In this way, the differences in returns to education of people who studied in the cities and work in them, who studied in the countryside and continue to live there, and of those who were educated in the countryside but are working in the cities are examined and compared. Based on the results obtained it is possible to speculate on labor markets, the quality of education and the selection bias of the migrant group as some of the possible explanations of the differentials between the urban, rural and migrant groups.

En este artículo se presentan modelos binarios logit y probit para analizar el impacto de la inflación de los activos financieros (acciones, vivienda y crédito) sobre la probabilidad de desaceleración económica en Colombia, para el período 1990-2011. Se determina el plazo (corto o mediano) con el que cada variable financiera afecta al sector real de la economía y se hace una interpretación del efecto que predomina en la variable al impactar la probabilidad de desaceleración económica. Los resultados muestran que aumentos en el crecimiento del crédito afectan la economía en el corto plazo de manera positiva y disminuyen la probabilidad de desaceleración económica mediante un efecto riqueza. Los aumentos en los precios de la vivienda tienen un efecto riqueza inicial de corto plazo, pero en el mediano plazo tienen un efecto de sobrevaloración de activos. La sobrevaloración hipotecaria puede generar burbujas en los precios de la vivienda y desacelerar la economía en el mediano plazo. Se evidencia que la variable de vivienda es un adecuado indicador de alerta temprana para los ciclos económicos en Colombia. This paper analyses the impact the inflation of financial assets (stocks, housing and credit) have on the probability of economic slowdown in Colombia for the period 1990-2011 by using binary models Logit and Probit. The term (short or medium) with which each financial variable affects the real sector of the economy is determined and an interpretation of the effect that predominates in each variable as it impacts the probability of economic slowdown is made. The results show that increases in the growth of credit positively affect the economy in the short term and reduce the probability of economic slowdown through a wealth effect. Increases in housing prices have a wealth effect in the short term but in the medium term they have an asset overvaluation effect. The mortgage overvaluation can generate bubbles in the housing prices and slowdown the economy in the medium term. It is evidenced that the housing variable is an adequate early warning indicator to the economic cycles in Colombia.

Este artículo estima la brecha del PIB para Venezuela por medio de un modelo de vectores autorregresivo estructural y el método de descomposición de Blanchard y Quah para el período 1999:1-2010:4. Se usó información trimestral para la tasa de inflación, el producto interno bruto real, la tasa de desocupación y los precios de realización del barril de petróleo; se identificaron shocks fiscales y monetarios por el lado de la demanda, y tecnológicos y laborales por el lado de la oferta. Los resultados empíricos revelan que aunque inicialmente existe una amplia brecha entre el producto real y el potencial, esta tiende a cerrarse progresivamente hacia finales del período como consecuencia del aumento de los precios del petróleo. Las proyecciones revelan que la brecha pudiera eventualmente caer como resultado de la contracción económica observada durante los años 2009 y 2010. This paper estimates the GDP gap in Venezuela by means of the structural VAR methodology and the Blanchard and Quah decomposition for the period 1999:1-2010:4. We use quarterly data for the inflation rate, real GDP, unemployment rate, and oil prices. We identify fiscal and monetary innovations on the demand side and technological and labor market disturbances on the supply side. Empirical results reveal that even though there is a wide gap between real and potential GDP at the beginning of the period, it tends to narrow towards the end of the period as a result of the rise in oil prices. The GDP sample forecast shows that this gap, eventually, could fall as a result of the contraction in economic activity during 2009 and 2010.

Las metodologías tradicionales utilizadas para calcular el valor en riesgo y el valor en riesgo condicional usualmente modelan el primer y segundo momento de las series, suponiendo que el tercer y cuarto momento son constantes. En este artículo se utiliza la metodología de Hansen (1994) para modelar los primeros cuatro momentos de la serie y, en particular, se usan varias formas paramétricas para modelar la asimetría y la curtosis. Las medidas tradicionales de VaR y CVaR y las propuestas se calculan para la tasa representativa del mercado, los TES y el IGBC para el periodo comprendido entre enero de 2008 y febrero de 2014. En general, se encontró que las medidas de riesgo de mercado presentan mejor desempeño cuando se modelan la asimetría y la curtosis condicionales de la serie. Traditional methodologies used to calculate the value at risk and conditional value at risk usually model the first and second moments of the series, assuming that the third and fourth moments are constant. This paper uses the methodology proposed by Hansen (1994) to model the first four moments of the series, in particular, several parametric shapes are used to model the skewness and kurtosis. The traditional measures of VaR, CVaR and proposals are calculated for the Representative Market Rate, TES, and the IGBC for the period between January 2008 and February 2014. Overall, it was found that measures of market risk have better performance when conditional skewness and kurtosis of the series is modeled.

This paper quantifies the economic impact of geographical features using Colombian data at the municipal level. We use the proportion of slave population in 1835 as an instrument of current institutions. We find that, controlling for institutional quality, geographical characteristics, such as the percentage of flat terrain, the proximity to the marketplace and the proximity to the main rivers are statistically-significant determinants of income per capita and have large economic effects.

This paper analyzes the evolution and main features of the railway system of Peru in the 19th and early 20th centuries. From mid-19th century railroads were considered a promise for achieving progress. Several railroads were then built in Peru, especially in 1850-75 and in 1910-30. With the construction of railroads, Peruvians saved time in travelling and carrying freight. The faster service of railroads did not necessarily come at the cost of higher passenger fares and freight rates. Fares and rates were lower for railroads than for mules, especially for long distances. However, for some routes (especially for short distances with many curves), the traditional system of llamas remained as the lowest pecuniary cost (but also slowest) mode of transportation. Este artículo analiza la evolución y las principales características del sistema ferroviario durante el siglo diecinueve y principios del siglo veinte. Desde mediados del siglo diecinueve, los ferrocarriles fueron considerados una promesa para alcanzar el progreso económico. Varios ferrocarriles fueron entonces construidos en el Perú, especialmente en 1850-1875 y en 1910-1930. Con la construcción de los ferrocarriles, los peruanos ahorraron tiempo en sus viajes y en envíos de carga. El servicio más rápido de transporte no se produjo necesariamente al costo de mayores tarifas para los pasajeros y para carga. Las tarifas para pasajeros y para carga fueron menores para los ferrocarriles que para las de las mulas, especialmente para distancias largas. Sin embargo, para algunas rutas (especialmente para rutas cortas con muchas curvas), el sistema tradicional de llamas se mantuvo como el sistema de transporte de menor costo (aunque más lento).

In this paper we are interested in investigating the effects of the three part tariffs system on consumers’ behavior in the local fixed telephone service provided by the incumbent Telecommunications Company une in Medellin, which was authorized by the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT, for its Spanish name). In order to study consumer behavior and the effect of this tariff system we specify a sort of Engel Curve, which relates expenditure in fixed telephone service and expenditure in public utilities. Endogeneity problems could well arise from this specification, so the empirical strategy for studying households’ consumption is based on a panel data analysis by performing instrumental variables and GMM procedures. Our results supports the hypothesis that consumers surpass expected consumption levels and therefore the total payment for the service is greater than planned, showing a sort of short-run irrationality in consumption.

En el artículo se analizan los determinantes de la presencia de hijos no planeados en Colombia. Se utiliza la información de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud 2005, específicamente para las mujeres de cuarenta años o más. Dadas las características especiales de la variable que se analiza, se utilizan modelos de conteo para verificar si determinadas características socioeconómicas, como la educación o el estrato económico, explican la presencia de hijos no deseados. Se encuentra que la educación de la mujer y el área de residencia son determinantes significativos de los nacimientos no planeados. Además, la relación inversa entre el número de hijos no deseados y la educación de la mujer tiene implicaciones cruciales en cuanto al manejo de la política social. In this paper, we attempt to analyze the determinants of unintended births among Colombian women aged 40 years old or more using data from the Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud 2005, which is Colombia's national demographic and health survey. Given the especial characteristics of the variable under analysis, we used count data models in order to test whether certain characteristics of women and their socioeconomic backgrounds such as their level and years of schooling or socioeconomic group, explain the number of unintended births. We found that women's education and the area of residence are significant determinants of unintended births. The inverse relationship between the level of education of women and the number of unintended births has key implications to social policies.

This paper examines the uncompensated elasticity of labor supply to real labor income (own and partner) and household income among married women in Uruguay (1991-2006) based on cross-sectional data. As has been shown for other countries, women's labor supply is considerably more sensitive to their own wages than men's. The own wage elasticity is relatively stable in the nineties and it is slightly decreasing in the 2000s. Children in home (negative) and schooling (positive) have the strongest incidence in labor hours. More educated women present smaller and decreasing wage elasticities. Public policies must consider children care and promote joint responsibility between men and women on non remunerated work in order to facilitate female employment.

The present paper attempts to measure empirically the externalities generated by the street vendors in four zones of the city. Given the lack of information censuses and surveys were carried out during December of 2004 and January 2005. The descriptive statistics show that the established commerce is less formal than expected; whereas the street vendors are mostly stationary, exhibit reduced scale and low space rivalry. The econometric estimations show that the congestion of the public space generated by street vendors has a negative impact on both sales and employment of established retail commerce. The simulations of a reduction of street vendors pinpoint that although street sales account for just 2% of total sales in the four areas under study, they reduce 14% and 16% sales and employment of formal retail commerce respectively. Finally, some limitations of the methodological strategy are raised and some public policy proposals to face the phenomenon are presented.