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ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to determine the measured and simulated rates of soil organic carbon (SOC) change in Vertisols in short-term experiments when the tillage system is changed from traditional tillage (TT) to conservation tillage (CT). The study was conducted in plots in four locations in the state of Michoacán and two locations in the state of Guanajuato. In the SOC change simulation, the RothC-26.3 carbon model was evaluated with different C inputs to the soil (ET1-ET5). ET was the measured shoot biomass (SB) plus estimated rhizodeposition (RI). RI was tested at values of 10, 15, 18, 36 and 50 % total biomass (TB). The SOC changes were simulated with the best trial where ET3 = SB + (0.18*TB). Values for model efficiency and the coefficient of correlation were in the ranges of 0.56 to 0.75 and 0.79 to 0.92, respectively. The average rate of SOC change, measured and simulated, in the study period was 3.0 and 1.9 Mg ha−1 yr−1, respectively; later, in a simulation period of 45 years, SOC change was 1.2 ± 0.8. In particular, without making adjustments in the RothC parameters and with information on measured plant residue C inputs to the soil, it was possible to simulate changes in SOC with RothC and estimate trends over a period of more than 45 years.