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If the scarcity of water resources and their limitation is a characteristic of the climate of Morocco, this phenomenon seems to know a distinct accentuation during the last decades. But, on the other hand, the scarcity of this resource and the drought are the main constraints of agricultural production; the situation then is more alarming. Although scientists in the region have developed many technologies to cope with these environmental problems, the difference between the yields achievable by farmers and the potential yields generally remains huge in rainfed and irrigated areas. This paper develops the problem of rainfed agriculture in the Khemisset region, El Ganzra site, in the constraining context of climate change and natural resources degradation. Indeed, several measures are necessary to cope with these climate changes; therefore, we propose a method of agro-climatic analysis of the first significant rains. Our investigations, which are part of the decision support approach, are based on choosing the suitable period for sowing cereals using the "InStat" tool. The method used is based on a quantitative approach, allowing us to study the Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and the analysis of drought intensity on the site. Consequently, the modelling makes it possible to propose scenarios to farmers regarding sowing dates and crop selection at the appropriate time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The air temperature in Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasing (0.3 - 0.6 °C per decade), while rainfall events are more extreme. Additionally, there is an increased variability in weather conditions across all seasons, marked by rapid shifts from extremely cold to warm weather, as well as transitions from periods of exceptionally high rainfall to exceedingly dry periods. Droughts and floods pose the most significant risks. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a lack of adequate information and analyses of extreme climate events, especially regarding their timing, intensity, magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Therefore, this study aims to address these questions using the precise drought index SPEI. The identified wet years were: 1969, 1970, 1976, 1978, 1999, 2001, 2010, 2013, and 2014, while the dry years were 1961, 1971, 1983, 1990, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2020. In the northern and western regions of BiH, the longest wet period in terms of duration and spatial extent occurred from May 2014 to July 2015. In the central and southern parts of BiH, the longest wet period extended over 19 months from February 1969 to August 1970. The longest drought with the largest spatial extent was the drought from August 2011 to July 2013. The obtained data shows a significant shift towards drier weather, as dry months have increased by 15% compared to wet months. At the same time, there has been a decrease in near-normal conditions and an increase in extremely wet months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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