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Evidence of climatic health hazards on the general population has been discussed in many studies but limited focus is placed on developing a relationship between climate and its effects on occupational health. Long working hours with high physical activity can cause health problems for workers ranging from mild heat cramps to severe heat stroke leading to death. The paper presents the possible risk of heat hazard to outdoor workers, using the example of Warsaw. The heat stress hazard, defined by WBGT values above 26 and 28°C and UTCI above 32 and 38°C, is assessed from two perspectives: its spatial distribution on a local scale and its temporal changes during the 21st century due to climate change. City centre and industrial districts were identified as the places with the greatest heat stress hazard. The number of heat stress days in a year (as predicted for the 21st century) is increasing, meaning that heat-related illnesses are more likely to have a direct impact on workers’ health.

This paper presents the results of research dealing with forecast changes in the frequency of occurrence of heat and cold stress in Warsaw (Poland) in the years 2001-2100, and the possible influence these may exert on mortality risk. Heat and cold stress were assessed by reference to the U niversal T hermal C limate I ndex (UTC I), for which values were calculated using meteorological data derived from the MPI-M-RE MO regional climate model, at a with spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. The simulations used boundary conditions from the EC HAMP5 Global Climate Model, for SRES scenario A1B. Predictions of mortality rate were in turn based on experimental epidemiological data from the period 1993-2002. Medical data consist of daily numbers of deaths within the age category above 64 years (TM64+). It proved possible to observe a statistically significant relationship between UTC I and mortality rates, this serving as a basis for predicting possible changes in mortality in the 21st century due to changing conditions as regards heat and cold stress.