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Non-PR, IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade; PRSSP, MTID, The impressive growth in aquaculture is now commonly dubbed a “blue revolution.” In some Asian countries, fish availability has increased at a faster rate in recent decades than did cereal availability during the Green Revolution. As an example, Bangladesh is one country where aquaculture has increased almost eightfold since the early 1990s. This growth has important implications for food and nutrition securities. Yet, there is little research on the determinants and impacts of this growth to document the lessons, identify evolving issues, and guide policy discussions. This paper attempts to fill that gap. Using several rounds of nationally representative household survey data, the authors conducted microsimulations to generate disaggregated estimates. The results show that, between 2000 and 2010, about 12 percent of Bangladesh’s overall poverty reduction can be attributed to aquaculture growth. In other words, of the 18 million Bangladeshis who escaped poverty during this period, more than 2 million of them managed to do so because of the growth in aquaculture. However, the results vary widely across income groups, with households in the third income quintile (which is not the poorest) benefiting the most. The implications of the results, methodological issues, and areas of future research are also discussed.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; REAP, MTID, The report is one of a series of commodity studies to be carried out by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the request of the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA). The general goal of these studies is to provide a comprehensive description of the commodity marketing channel from production to consumption to assist the ATA in its work of raising crop productivity and improving market efficiency.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; REAP, MTID, The broad goal of the study is to identify policy options to address the bottlenecks in the barley value chain. We analyzed the value chain from input supply and production to the terminal market and consumption across the four main regions of Ethiopia.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; E Building Resilience; C Improving markets and trade; CRP2; Strategic Food Reserve, DSGD; MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low per capita levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, political unrest, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. Agricultural productivity is low, and the country is highly dependent on private-sector imports of cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice) from Uganda to supply domestic markets. National household survey data indicate substantial diversity in consumption of cereals across households, and our econometric estimates suggest highly price- and income-inelastic demand for the two major cereals, sorghum and maize. Drawing on a review of international experience and the constraints facing South Sudan, we conclude that a national food security reserve (NFSR) system with a small national food security stock is feasible for South Sudan. Cereal stocks would be kept mainly for targeted safety nets and emergency distribution, and market interventions would be limited in scope, in keeping with a long-run goal of market development. Nonetheless, even with a functioning NFSR, promotion of private-sector domestic and import trade will remain crucial for ensuring adequate supplies of grain and food security

Non-PR, IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade; DCA, MTID, While the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) is widely credited to be a successful on several accounts, there has been little rigorous empirical investigation. This paper attempts to fill that gap by analyzing how ECX has influenced the international-domestic price relationships of coffee—the largest traded commodity on its floor. We examine three aspects of price dynamics—market interdependence, volatility transmission, and structural breaks—using a spatially disaggregated prices of five coffee varieties. The results indicate that contrary to popular media stories, ECX’s success in improving coffee price relationships has been limited. The results appear to be robust under all three sets of analysis.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; C Improving markets and trade; C.2 Institutions and Infrastructure for market development, MTID, Financial cooperatives and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are the two major sources of rural finance in Ethiopia. Whereas MFIs are relatively new, financial cooperatives have existed for centuries in various forms. The coexistence of two different institutions serving the same group of people, and delivering the same financial services, raises several policy questions. Those questions have become particularly relevant, as the government has embarked on developing a new strategy for improving rural financial services delivery. This study is expected to serve as an input to that policy discussion. Using a unique household survey dataset and the propensity-score-matching technique, we examine the impacts of the two financial service providers on agricultural technology adoption. The results suggest that access to institutional finance has significant positive impacts on both the adoption and extent of technology use.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS; C.4 Land and Input Markets; E.3 Resilience management tools and knowledge products; F.2 Political Economy of Development Policy and Investment Processes; CRP2, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The case for enhancing agricultural productivity through promotion of modern inputs is fairly easy to make. Promoting input use and intensifying agriculture, however, have proved difficult for most African countries under a wide range of policy initiatives since 1970s, ranging from universal subsidy, market liberalization, to smart subsidies in recent years. The central objective of this paper is to highlight the evolving policy options and, to do so, we analyze the trends in fertilizer and seed use and synthesize the evidence on the impacts of modern input promotion policies.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; REAP, MTID, We note at the outset that, the main objective of this paper is to draw broad conclusions in order to guide discussions between the ATA management and the policy makers, not to present in depth analysis to answer each of these questions with equal depth of analytical rigor.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; ReSAKSS; C.1 Macroeconomics, trade and non-agricultural policies, DSGD; WCAO; ESAO; MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.1; C Improving markets and trade; D Transforming Agriculture, MTID, Since the publication of the World Development Report 2008, two related strands of research have emerged-one on the validity of smallholder-led development strategy and the other on agricultural intensification under population pressure. The former casts doubt about the role of agriculture in economic development in smallholders dominated countries and the later provides evidence that are contrary to earlier findings on induced innovation theory. Using a unique panel dataset, we examine whether these arguments are valid for Bangladesh--a densely populated country that has experienced significant growth in recent decades. The results suggest that (1) agriculture as a source of income declined significantly over the past two decades; (2) the operated farm size stopped declining in the late 1980s; and (3) that population density relates positively with a host of agricultural intensifications indicators with no evidence of threshold.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Theme 2; Subtheme 2.2; GRP27; Theme 3; Subtheme 3.2, MTID, The study involved interviewing a large number of stakeholders in fertilizer value chain, collection of data on costs and margins from the key actors in the value chain, as well as household survey data. In this paper, we present the key findings from that study. In particular, the paper presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, and the costs of government’s fertilizer promotion policies. Based the estimates of the costs and margins in the fertilizer value chain, the study argues that the current value chain will not be sustainable unless the scale of operation, as well institutional capacity, of the primary cooperatives goes up.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; REAP; Theme 3; Subtheme 3.2; GRP27, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; Theme 6; Subtheme 6.2; GRP32; Theme 3; Subtheme 3.2; E Building Resilience; CRP2, DSGD; MTID; PHND; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Using data from multiple sources, we show that in Bangladesh, the increase in real wages, particularly female wages, has accelerated since the late 2000s, suggesting that the Lewis turning point (the point at which the labor market starts to shift in favor of workers) has arrived in Bangladesh. Rising wages are likely a result of a combination of more ample job opportunities in the nonfarm sector, especially in the manufacturing sector for females, and a greater amount of remittances, primarily from male workers overseas. Since human capital is the most important asset for the poor, the escalation in real wages has boosted the poor’s earnings, thereby reducing their likelihood of being poor.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, DSGD, Ethiopia has made considerable progress toward food security since the 1984 famine captured worldwide media attention. Almost 30 years after that calamity, Ethiopian per capita income has increased, poverty has fallen, food security has improved, and the groundwork has been laid for sustained economic growth.

PR, IFPRI4, MTID

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP27, MTID, Cereal price variability in Ethiopia has worsened in recent years, and some of the earlier liberalizations are being reversed due to the unacceptable economic and political costs of increased price variability. The challenge now is to achieve price stability in a cost-effective way. This paper examines intercommodity price relationships to assess the relative importance of each of the three major cereals in generating price volatility. Based on the estimates from a dynamic econometric model, the paper concludes that maize is the most significant in exacerbating price variability with respect to the persistence of shocks to itself and the two other cereals. This implies that focusing on maize, instead of wheat, will not only help better stabilize prices but also reduce costs of stabilization. The results are also discussed in the context of ongoing policy discussions.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, Holding strategic grain reserves to address food price hikes has received renewed attentions in recent years. This paper examines such a program in Ethiopia that has been successful in addressing several emergencies since the 1990s. The analysis suggests that the key ingredients behind the success are a unique institutional design, coordination during emergencies with food-based safety net programs, and keeping the grain stocks to a minimum. Institutional design is unique because, unlike similar agencies in other countries, Ethiopia’s Emergency Food Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) is independent of price stabilization and hence is not engaged in buying and selling of grain. The paper also demonstrates that scaling up school feeding programs will generate additional food demand and an effective outlet for stock rotation; and that increasing the stock level for price stabilization will adversely affect both grain markets and the performance of the EFSRA.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, This report provides an analysis of the critical role of pulses in agricultural production as a driver for economic growth and food security. Pulses, which occupy approximately 13 percent of cultivated land and account for approximately 10 percent of the agricultural value addition, are critical to smallholder livelihoods in Ethiopia. Pulses contribute to smallholder income, as a higher-value crop than cereals, and to diet, as a cost-effective source of protein that accounts for approximately 15 percent of protein intake. Moreover, pulses offer natural soil maintenance benefits through nitrogen-fixing, which improves yields of cereals through crop rotation, and can also result in savings for smallholder farmers from less fertilizer use.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP2, MTID, This paper reviews the purpose and potential of commodity exchanges in Africa. Drawing from the existing literature and using indicative empirics, it examines the conditions that enable successful exchanges, highlights the special challenges to setting up exchanges in Africa, and reviews alternatives to domestic exchanges. We argue that many critical preconditions for the successful establishment of commodity exchanges in Africa remain binding in the short to medium term. The development of commodity exchanges in the region is impeded by the relatively small size of domestic commodity markets, the weak physical and communication infrastructure, a lack of supportive legal and regulatory environments, and the likelihood of policy interventions, particularly in the staple cereals market. Meanwhile, the demand for a domestic commodity exchange for export crops may be limited due to the availability of well-established exchanges abroad and functioning auction floors. The paper highlights three points: (a) efforts to launch exchanges in Africa should realistically assess whether basic conditions for success can be met, (b) if the pre-conditions cannot be met, the use of existing exchanges abroad or the development of regional exchanges may be more feasible than the establishment of national commodity exchanges, and (c) the goals of risk management and reduced transaction costs might be achieved more effectively by improving market fundamentals through investments in transportation, information services, or other financial institutions.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, This document is a summary report of the soil fertility and fertilizer value chain diagnostic work-one of eight reports across the agricultural system facilitated by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and undertaken at the request of H.E. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Over 70 stakeholders, ranging from smallholder farmers and local Development Agents to the private sector and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, contributed to the report's findings and recommendations.

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, This report reaffirms that maize continues to be a significant contributor to the economic and social development of Ethiopia. As the crop with the largest smallholder coverage at 8 million holders (compared to 5.8 million for teff and 4.2 million for wheat), maize is critical to smallholder livelihoods in Ethiopia. In addition, maize is the staple crop with the greatest production at 4.2 million tons in 2007/08, compared to teff at 3.0 million tons and sorghum at 2.7 million tons1.

PR, IFPRI4, FCND, 618 pages

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP27, MTID; NDO, "Governments in Asia used grain price stabilization as a major policy instrument when they began to promote the Green Revolution in the 1960s. In the process, they created parastatal agencies, which were quasi-governmental in nature, to undertake public marketing activities in basic staples such as rice and wheat. These operations often meant providing a support price to farmers, procuring staples on government account, holding public stocks, and distributing these stocks through public distribution systems or open market operations to hold the price line for consumers. This led to a sizeable degree of government intervention in most of these countries' grain markets, which continues to a large extent today." -- from Text

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP2; Theme 2, MTID, Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper (a) assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in foodgrain markets, (b) documents the existing policies and regulations that support operation of grain parastatals, (c) provides estimates of benefits and costs of parastatals, and (d) compares experiences of countries that liberalized (or reduced intervention) with the ones that continue to have significant presence of parastatals. Our results suggest that conditions in the region have improved significantly over the past thirty years; and none of the four commonly agreed rationales—that is, poorly integrated domestic markets, thin and volatile world market, promoting modern technology and the scarcity of foreign exchange reserves—for public intervention in foodgrain markets are now persuasive. Domestic foodgrain markets are integrated, international markets for both wheat and rice are significantly more robust than they were thirty years ago, High-Yielding Varieties (HYV) now cover practically all of the high potential area sown to wheat and rice; and foreign currency reserves have increased dramatically in all countries in recent years. However, although rationales have lost their significance, many countries continue to practice old policies and provide regulatory supports to parastatals, including monopoly control over international trade, preferential access to transportation, restrictions on movement of foodgrains, and cheap or interest-free credit. Relative to the private sector, the costs of the grain parastatals have been high and are increasing, as special interests and rent- seeking are increasingly dictating their operation. This is being manifested in various forms, such as excessive public stocks in India, vacillating import policies in Indonesia and Pakistan, questionable government foodgrain import decisions in the Philippines, and politically-determined ceiling and floor prices in India. On the other hand, the exper

Non-PR, IFPRI1, MTID, Using weekly price data for two sub-periods, this paper analyzes how Ugandan maize market performed in the years following agricultural market liberalization in the early 1990's. For each time period, the extent of integration, causality among spatial locations, and relative importance of spatial locations in price formation are examined. The extent of integration, defined as a set of markets that shares common long-run price information, and the causal relationships among markets have been tested within Johansen's cointegration framework. The relative importance of each market locations is examined by estimating the common trend coefficients with a dynamic vector moving average model. Results indicate that, while there has been an overall improvement in spatial price responsiveness, the northern districts, which have been in a state of insurgency since 1986, continue to lack integration with major consumption markets in the central region. Causality test results show that compared to the 1993-1994-time period, representing the early years of liberalization, interdependence among markets has increased. Estimates of the common integrating trend suggest that public policies, such as price stabilization, can have desired impacts by targeting a small number of locations. These results are consistent with recently conducted household and market surveys in the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP28; Theme 8, FCND, "The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a comprehensive study of the efficiency of food distribution in food aid-supported programs in Bangladesh. The capacity and efficiency of the food distribution system was assessed from entry ports to targeted beneficiaries. The study identified problems in the whole food distribution system, determined the level of losses, leakages, and other lapses at various stages, and recommended solutions. The study has three components: (1) food discharge at harbors, (2) the public food distribution system, and (3) food distribution to program beneficiaries. This brief summarizes the main findings and a few of the many key recommendations of the third component of the study." -- from Text

Non-PR, IFPRI1; GRP28; Theme 8, FCND, The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) conducted a comprehensive study of the efficiency of food distribution in food aid-supported programs in Bangladesh. The capacity and efficiency of the food distribution system was assessed from entry ports to targeted beneficiaries. The study identified problems in the whole food distribution system, determined the level of losses, leakages, and other lapses at various stages, and recommended solutions. The study has three components: (1) food discharge at harbors, (2) the public food distribution system, and (3) food distribution to program beneficiaries. This brief summarizes the main findings and a few of the many key recommendations of the third component of the study.

PR, IFPRI1; Public Policy and Investment, Table of Contents: Tables, Figures, Foreword, Acknowledgments, and Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Determinants of the Placement and Outreach of Group-Based Financial Institutions:A County-Level Analysis; 5. Analysis of the Household-Level Impact of Group-Based Credit Institutions in Bangladesh; 6. Conclusions and Implications for Policy; Appendix A: Survey Modules, Sampling Frame, and Location of Survey Sites; Appendix B: Adult Equivalent Consumption Units Differentiated by Age and Gender; References" 3. Group-Based Financial Institutions:Structure, Conduct, and Performance; 4. Household Participation in Financial Markets

Non-PR, IFPRI1, FCND, Table of Contents: Tables, Figures, Foreword, Acknowledgments, and Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Determinants of the Placement and Outreach of Group-Based Financial Institutions:A County-Level Analysis; 3. Group-Based Financial Institutions:Structure, Conduct, and Performance; 4. Household Participation in Financial Markets; 5. Analysis of the Household-Level Impact of Group-Based Credit Institutions in Bangladesh; 6. Conclusions and Implications for Policy; Appendix A: Survey Modules, Sampling Frame, and Location of Survey Sites; Appendix B: Adult Equivalent Consumption Units Differentiated by Age and Gender; References