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The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with the 1.5–2°C “safe limit” of the United Nations Paris Agreement is currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here, we present new, transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been attempted. Our empirically constrained simulations indicate that the AIS contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We resolve the conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the West AIS may be predisposed to future collapse even in the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous studies.

The Southern Ocean plays a significant role in driving global climate–ocean–carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, a relative dearth of datasets across the region limits our ability to understand past and future mechanisms of change. Here we report a new dataset from the south-west Pacific: radiocarbon-dated subfossil tree stumps (Dracophyllum) eroding out from peat exposures on Campbell and Auckland Islands (52–50°S). Dracophyllum are the southernmost growing trees in the south-west Pacific and their growth on exposed sites and at altitude is strongly controlled by the prevailing westerly airflow, providing a unique measure of past changes in zonal wind strength. Here we demonstrate a significant collapse in the altitudinal limit of growth between approximately 2000 and 1000 years ago (hereafter 2–1 ka), consistent with other records across the Southern Hemisphere that indicate westerly airflow was significantly enhanced. Importantly, this period in the late Holocene was one of marked change across the broader region, suggesting westerly airflow played a key role in driving Southern Ocean variability at this time.

The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135 000-116 000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2uC higher and rates of sea-level rise >5.6m ka 1 , leading to sea levels 6.6- 9.4m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated. Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub-polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2-0.8uC in the upper 1200m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st-century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum-Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability. Copyright # 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The transition from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene (30 000–5000 years ago) was a period of considerable climate variability, which has been associated with changes in deep water formation and the intensity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. Although numerous records exist across the North Atlantic region, few Antarctic ice core records have been obtained from the south. Here we exploit the potential of upwelling ancient ice – so-called blue ice areas (BIAs) – from the Patriot Hills in the Ellsworth Mountains to derive the first deuterium isotope record (δD) from continental Antarctica south of the Weddell Sea. Gas analysis and glaciological considerations provide a first relative chronology. Inferred temperature trends from the Patriot Hills BIA and snow pit suggest changing climate influences during the transition between the last glacial period and Holocene. Under modern conditions, the interplay between the Antarctic high-pressure system and the Southern Annular Mode appears to play a significant role in controlling katabatic wind flow over the site while the BIA record suggests that greater sea ice extent during the last glacial period was a major control. Our results demonstrate the considerable potential of the Patriot Hills site for reconstructing past climate change in the south Atlantic region.

Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbacks is key to reducing uncertainty. Here we present a series of climate system model simulations that explore the potential effects of increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) meltwater flux on Southern Ocean dynamics. We project future changes driven by sectors of the WAIS, delivering spatially and temporally variable meltwater flux into the Amundsen, Ross, and Weddell embayments over future centuries. Focusing on the Amundsen Sea sector of the WAIS over the next 200 years, we demonstrate that the enhanced meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, resulting in a significant decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This triggers rapid pervasive ocean warming (>1°C) at depth due to advection from the original site(s) of meltwater input. The greatest warming is predicted along sectors of the ice sheet that are highly sensitized to ocean forcing, creating a feedback loop that could enhance basal ice shelf melting and grounding line retreat. Given that we do not include the effects of rising CO2—predicted to further reduce AABW formation—our experiments highlight the urgent need to develop a new generation of fully coupled ice sheet climate models, which include feedback mechanisms such as this, to reduce uncertainty in climate and sea level projections.