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This paper explores the relationship between regional integration models and trade network structures. The paper further investigates the implications of these trade relationship configurations on risk. The exploratory study models the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as networks: countries in each region are nodes connected by lines representing commodity trade flows. The study compares the evolution of the two regional networks over a 25‐year period (1990–2014). The results confirm that different regional integration models lead to differently structured economic relationships. The findings show that loosely coupled networks are vulnerable to the failure of a few connected nodes (concentrated vulnerability), but that tightly coupled regional networks are vulnerable to the failure of any of its nodes (random vulnerability). These unique differences in vulnerability have critical implications for managing economic risk.

Proper assessment of the economic risk from hazards is an important prerequisite toward enhancing resilience and is often overlooked or underestimated in importance. This research describes a metho...

This paper considers the risk of incurring future medical expenditures in light of a family's resources available to pay for those expenditures as well as their choice of health insurance. We model non-premium medical out-of-pocket expenditures and use the estimates from our model to develop a prospective measure of medical care economic risk estimating the proportion of families who are at risk of incurring high non-premium out-of-pocket medical care expenses in relation to its resources. We further use the estimates from our model to compare the extent to which different types of insurance mitigate the risk of incurring non-premium expenditures by providing for increased utilization of medical care. We find that while 21.3% of families lack the resources to pay for the median expenditures for their insurance type, 42.4% lack the resources to pay for the 99th percentile of expenditures for their insurance type. We also find the mediating effect of insurance on non-premium expenditures to outweigh the associated premium expense for expenditures above $1804 for employer-sponsored insurance and $4337 for direct purchase insurance for those younger than age 65; and above $12 118 of expenditures for Medicare supplementary plans for those aged 65 or older. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Research consistently indicates that exposure to early family adversity is associated with compromised development in early childhood. Consequently, researchers, direct service workers, and policy makers have sought to understand and alleviate the multidimensional stressors faced by families during the prenatal and early childhood periods. Person-centered approaches are one method of understanding the interplay of risk factors. The present review synthesizes current person-centered research investigating social and economic risk factors during the prenatal and early childhood periods, and summarizes how person-centered approaches have advanced the understanding of early family risk and later child adaptive functioning. Results are discussed in the context of the family during early childhood development, with a discussion of clinical and prevention-based implications.

Skilled immigration to the United States has been multi-channeled via legislations on permanent and temporary visa programs. This paper argues that skilled immigrants were not disadvantaged during the Great Recession because of a new hedging mechanism, which starts with the federal legislations that admit skilled nonimmigrants, proceeds to vest authority in employers, who perform rigorous screening and selection of temporary workers for future permanency, and ends with greater protection of those selected. To test this mechanism, the paper examines skilled immigrants' spatial mobility out of the country and their domestic labor market outcomes. The paper presents evidence from analyzing repeated, nationally representative survey data of college graduates in the US using demographic techniques of intra-cohort and inter-cohort analyses. The major findings about the substantial cross-border mobility and high levels of labor force participation among at-entry temporary visa holders who later gained permanent residency provide strong evidence to support our proposed new hedging mechanism.

Earlier soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] planting, increased seed costs, and higher commodity prices have led to a surge in the use of soybean fungicide and insecticide seed treatments, while recent studies have suggested that growers should consider lowering seeding rates to increase their return on investment. Ultimately, growers would like to know the value proposition of combining seed treatments with lowered seeding rates. Therefore, three seed treatments (untreated, ApronMaxx, and CruiserMaxx) and six seeding rates (98,800, 148,200, 197,600, 247,000, 296,400, and 345,800 seeds ha -1 ) were evaluated to determine seed yield, profitability, and economic risk of various seed treatments and seeding rates, including the economically optimal seeding rate (EOSR) for each seed treatment. Trials were conducted at nine locations throughout Wisconsin during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons, totaling 18 site-years. Across a wide range of seeding rates, ApronMaxx provided no yield or profitability gains and only slight risk benefits (

We estimated the impact on economic risk associated with the prevalence of white spot disease in shrimp farms in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico. Farms located in the jurisdiction of Local Aquaculture Health Boards (LAHBs) were used for preparing estimates during 2008–2010. Probability distributions of economic losses were calculated by comparing net revenues obtained under normal operations and operations affected by the disease, using Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the impact of prevalence on losses in absolute and relative terms, probability of losing and loss per unit risk at USD$484.27/ha, 28.9%, 72.9% and 0.20. Regression analysis allowed estimating that, by an increases of 1% in prevalence, there were increases in the estimators of risk of USD$11.49/ha, 0.96%, 0.47% and 0.005. Correlation analysis showed that there were significant differences in prevalence among LAHBs districts and years. The higher prevalence coincided with the districts and years that exhibited higher risk. The source of water and use of nursery systems were the main differences in operating conditions among the districts, possibly determining to a large extent the differences in economic risk calculated for the districts. Sensitivity analysis indicated that prevalence was the main factor determining risk. A significant inverse relationship was found between shrimp prices and prevalence, as a consequence of speculative market conditions. The possibility of using this relationship for syndromic surveillance is considered. We propose the use of the estimators employed in this study for assessment of economic risk associated with white spot disease (and possibly others) and standardization of results for future research.

This paper examines the effects of attitudes toward economic risk on occupational choice. Workers with a more favourable disposition toward economic risk have a higher probability of being employed in the more prestigious, high-paying Professional and Administrative occupations. Potential biases associated with omitted genetic and family background factors are considered. The marked differential in attitudes toward economic risk between males and females, however, makes only a minor contribution to the considerable occupational segregation on the basis of gender in the contemporary Australian labor market.

Most hybrid catfish, ♀Ictalurus punctatus × ♂Ictalurus furcatus, producers stock 18- to 19-cm fingerlings in single-batch production. While stocking smaller fingerlings would be less expensive, the economic trade-offs of using smaller fingerlings is unknown. Two sizes of hybrid catfish fingerlings (13-cm and 19-cm) were stocked in single-size treatments at 9884 head/ha and a multi-size treatment with each size stocked at 9884 head/ha (total 19,768 head/ha). In the 13-cm and 19-cm single-size treatments, 87 and 98%, respectively, reached market size in one season. In the multi-size treatment, 77% of all fish stocked reached market size, demonstrating that more than half of the 13-cm fish reached market size in this treatment. Gross, net, and marketable yields were significantly greater in the multi-size treatment when compared to the 13-cm or 19-cm single-size treatments, but were not significantly different between the two single-size treatments. The 19-cm single-size treatment resulted in greater break-even prices and economic risk than the other two treatments. This study demonstrated that 13-cm hybrid catfish fingerlings can be raised economically in both single- and multi-size production systems in the southern USA.

Despite the rapid producer adoption of hybrid rice (Oryza sativa L.) in recent years, the economic advantage of hybrid rice in the mid-southern United States remains disputed. This study compared the economic risk and return of three popularly sown hybrid rice cultivars: XL723, Clearfield (CL) XL729, and CL XL745; and eight conventional rice cultivars: Cheniere, CL 142-AR, CL 151, Francis, Roy J, Taggart, Templeton, and Wells, using University of Arkansas experimental test plot data from 2006 to 2010. Paddy and milling yield data on each cultivar were used to estimate a Just–Pope production function, allowing comparison of mean yields and mean yield variances across cultivars. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare net returns and net return variance (risk) across hybrid and conventional cultivars. Just–Pope estimation results indicated that hybrid cultivars exhibited mean paddy yield premiums of 1.6 to 2.4 Mg ha–1 relative to the best-performing conventional cultivar (Francis); furthermore, the hybrid yield advantage was not associated with increased yield risk. Among hybrid-CL and conventional-CL cultivars, hybrid milling quality was not statistically different. Among non-CL cultivars, the hybrid XL723 exhibited a mean head rice yield premium relative to conventional alternatives. Monte Carlo simulation results suggested that the net revenue advantage of hybrid cultivars makes them preferable to conventional alternatives in the CL and non-CL categories across the entire range of producer risk preferences considered in this study.

A risk analysis was conducted to compare the economic risk of producing hybrid striped bass (♀ white bass Morone chrysops × ♂ striped bass M. saxatilis) fingerlings in ponds and indoor tanks. Cost budgets developed previously for three pond sizes (0.4, 1.2, and 2.4 ha) and three tank sizes (945, 2,457, and 5,670 L) for each of six scales of production (50,000, 100,000, 250,000, 500,000, 1,000,000, and 2,000,000 fingerlings/year) were used as the initial starting point for the development of a spreadsheet-based risk analysis. Probability distributions and cumulative frequency distributions of break-even prices above total costs were calculated for each scenario. Pond production was less risky than tank production, and larger pond sizes had lower risk. Survival rates contributed the most to the economic risk of hybrid striped bass fingerling production. Research is needed to improve survival rates for hybrid striped bass fingerling production in ponds. Received December 9, 2011; accepted April 9, 2012

Today's merger-and-acquisition (Mx&A) activities include a renewed focus on limiting economic risk and preserving capital. That makes sense, given the current uncertainties in the credit markets and the historically high volatilities in the equity market. Of course, a company can eliminate the economic risks of M&As by abandoning all M&A efforts. But that also eliminates a company's ability to take advantage of current economic conditions-where some equity prices are now undervalued by 30 percent or more.The authors of this article argue for a more reasonable approach: rethink your M&A risks and take steps to reduce those risks both before and after an acquisition. And they suggest some strategies that will help. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The first NATM designs 40 years ago included only one plan with the tender documents, the so-called support measures plan with five to six rock quality classes and at the most 30 to 40 bill items and perhaps just 20 pages of technical conditions of contract. The tunnelling work on site was mostly implemented collaboratively, quickly and according to the requirements of the client. The main advantage of the NATM, its adaptability, could be exploited to the full. Meanwhile, the extent of the tender documents has increased by a factor of more than ten. Does the NATM have less economic risk and less conflict potential as a result of this? No! The only progress is that tunnelling has become safer. The reason for the exploding quantity of design and tender documents is not that the technical requirements and their solution have become more extensive but in the immense increase of legal influence and the resulting fixed idea that design and tender documents have to be produced without errors. The introduction of the standard ONORM B 2203-1 and the OGG guideline for geotechnical design of underground works 10 years ago have provided the tools for designers to exploit the advantages of the NATM with the required comprehensibility and with more adaptability. Die ersten NOT-Planungen vor 40 Jahren haben fur den Vortrieb einen einzigen Plan, den so genannten Stutzmasnahmenplan mit funf bis sechs Gebirgsguteklassen und maximal 30 bis 40 Positionen, und vielleicht 20 Seiten Technische Vertragsbedingungen beinhaltet. Der Vortrieb vor Ort wurde partnerschaftlich, rasch und meist im Sinne der Anforderungen des Auftraggebers abgewickelt. Der Hauptvorzug der NOT, namlich die die Anpassungsfahigkeit, konnte voll ausgenutzt werden. Inzwischen hat sich der Umfang der Ausschreibungsunterlagen auf das mehr als Zehnfache erweitert. Besitzt die NOT deswegen ein kleineres wirtschaftliches Risiko und weniger Konfliktpotenzial? Nein! Der einzige Fortschritt ist, dass der Vortrieb inzwischen sicherer geworden ist. Der Grund fur die Explosion der Planungs- und Ausschreibungsunterlagen liegt nicht darin, dass die technischen Anforderungen und deren Losungen umfangreicher geworden sind, sondern in der immensen Verrechtlichung und der damit verbundenen Zwangsvorstellung, eine fehlerfreie Planung und Ausschreibung erstellen zu mussen. Mit der Einfuhrung der ONORM B 2203-1 und der OGG-Richtlinie fur geotechnische Planung von Untertagebauwerken sind seit zehn Jahren Werkzeuge in der Hand des Planers, um die Vorzuge der NOT mit der notwendigen Nachvollziehbarkeit und mit groserer Anpassungsfahigkeit herauszuarbeiten.

We identify different sources of risk as important determinants of banks' corporate structures when expanding into new markets. Subsidiary-based corporate structures benefit from greater protection against economic risk because of affiliate-level limited liability, but are more exposed to the risk of capital expropriation than are branches. Thus, branch-based structures are preferred to subsidiary-based structures when expropriation risk is high relative to economic risk, and vice versa. Greater cross country risk correlation and more accurate pricing of risk by investors reduce the differences between the two structures. Furthermore, a bank's corporate structure affects its risk taking and affiliate size. In recent years, bank mergers and cross-border entry have intensified in advanced economies, and international banks have established a substantial presence in several middle-income and developing countries. Entry in these markets has taken a variety of forms, ranging from the acquisition of domestic

The purpose of this article is to explain the returns of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), compar-ing the results across emerging and developed markets. Using a sample of 167 ADRs from 14 emerg-ing and 17 developed markets (31 markets in total) for the period 2000–2004, we found variations in the impacts of specific variables and in the explanatory power of models associated with the annual holding-period return of firms. Dividing ADRs into emerging and developed markets suggests that firm size and local market conditions influenced returns in the two groups in similar ways. However, firm-specific business risk and country-specific economic risk are only important to emerging markets’ ADRs, while country-specific exchange-rate variables are more important to developed markets’ ADRs. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

We examine the influence of genetics on economic risk preferences by administering a measure of these preferences to monozygotic (MZ) (i.e., identical) and dizygotic (DZ) (i.e., non-identical) twin pairs. Our analysis supports a dominant genetic effect and virtually no additivegenetic effect on economic risk preferences, with the heritability of preferences estimated at 0.63. These findings suggest that over half of the variation in such preferences can be explained by genetic factors, with the remainder of thevariance explained by environmental influences not shared among sibling twins. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of individual differences in economic risk preferences. Copyright # 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Soil borne diseases can greatly reduce marketable yields and are a major concern to Maine potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) producers. Control of these organisms is difficult as they can persist in the soil for several years and symptoms typically worsen each year. Depending on the specific pathogen, different mechanisms for moderating soil borne disease can be employed, such as breaking the hostpathogen cycle, stimulating beneficial microbial activity, and direct inhibition of the pathogens. Current research at the USDA-ARS New England Plant, Soil, and Water Laboratory is investigating the effect of rotation crops and rotation sequences on the incidence and severity of soil-borne diseases in the following potato crop. These results (incidence, severity, and potato yield) are incorporated into an economic simulation model to determine the impact of rotations on profitability, level of income risk, and probability of economic loss for different rotation sequences and rotation lengths. The results show that several rotation sequences can increase profitability and reduce economic risk when compared to continuous potato or to the standard barley-potato rotations.

— The effect of on-farm production of various sizes of stocker catfish Ictalurus punctatus on farm profitability was compared to profitability of understocking fingerlings directly into multiple-batch growout production. Vat-graded catfish averaging 9 × 2 g (10 cm total length) and 27× 8 g (15 cm total length) were stocked into eight 0.1-ha ponds at 100,000 fingerlingdha. Fish were fed once daily to apparent satiation and harvested 210 d after stocking. There were no significant differences (P < 0.10) in yield, feed conversion ratio (FCR), and survival across treatments. Mean gross yield (× SD) was 9,469 × 852 kg/ha and 8,846 × 2,099 kg/ha; net yield averaged 8,531× 885 and 6,374 × 2,189 kg/ha; FCR averaged 1.8 × 0.1 and 2.4 × 0.7, and survival averaged 38 × 7% and 26 ×11% for the 10-cm and 15-m fingerling stocking treatments, respectively. While experimental survival was low, varying survival rates of stockers in the economic analysis did not affect selection of the most profitable stocking strategies. The 15-cm hgerlings reached a size significantly larger (361× 81 g or 32.8 × 2.2 cm) than the 10-cm fingerlings (255 × 28 g or 29.6 × 1.4 cm) (P < 0.07). Whole-farm budgets were developed based on three sizes of farm (65, 130, and 260 ha) and eight production strategies involving the purchase of different sizes of fingerlings for either understocking growout ponds (6,12, or 37-g fingerlings) or to grow into stockers (114,135, 176, 255, or 361 9). Purchasing 37-g advanced fingerlings for multiple-batch production was the most profitable strategy for the three sizes of farm. The second most important profit-maximizing strategy for larger farm sizes was single-batch production with 255-g stockers produced on-farm, but purchasing 12-g fingerlings to stock into multiple-batch production was the second most profitable strategy for the smallest farm. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust to variation in survival, prices, and other production characteristics. Risk analysis indicated that purchasing 37-g advanced fingerlings for multiple-batch production was associated with the lowest levels of economic risk for growout production.

This article examines the context of mothers' economic risk postdivorce. Data collected from 212 divorced custodial mothers and 225 divorced noncustodial fathers are used to illustrate income dynamics pre- and postdivorce as well as differences in income distribution between men and women. Findings confirm trends uncovered in other studies: Women's economic decline appears to be more pronounced than men's. Risk factors encompassed by various systemic levels are summarized and discussed as a context for understanding and intervention. Specific recommendations for policy are offered.

This paper examines international joint ventures (IJVs) by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Numerous papers have been published regarding international investments as a tool for diversification; however, the real estate industry has not experienced such research. Few researchers have studied the impact of IJVs on the real estate industry and, as a result, it is the authors' hope that this paper becomes a stimulus for further research in this field. The paper highlights recent IJVs within the real estate industry, including CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.'s JV with Galileo American REIT; Developers Diversified Realty Corporation's JV with Macquarie Bank of Australia; ProLogis' JV with Macquarie Bank of Australia; and Great White Shark Enterprises' JV with Macquarie Bank of Australia. The authors have focused their efforts on foreign investors acquiring US-based properties. The IJVs examined in this study appeared to be motivated by the foreign investors' desire to invest in US property. In this regard, foreign investors perceive US investments to be associated with less political and economic risk. Several characteristics emerge from the IJVs studied; specifically, IJVs present unique opportunities for global expansion for US firms otherwise prohibited by foreign governments. Further, IJVs allow firms to obtain additional capital resources. In most cases, IJVs are time consuming and messy to design. IJVs are unstable arrangements with, more than likely, one firm seeking to dissolve the arrangement in no more than five years. IJVs generally follow a very structured plan that includes opportunity assessment, evaluation, design and implementation. Copyright © 2005 Henry Stewart Publications

A study of the production of stocker channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus in earthen ponds was conducted to analyze the effect of stocking density on net yield, growth, final size, feed conversion ratio, and cost of production. Vat-graded catfish fingerlings averaging 2.5 g (6.7 cm) were stocked into twelve 0.1-ha earthen ponds at 50,000, 100,000, or 150,000 fingerlings/ha. Fish were fed to satiation and harvested 166–171 d after stocking. Net yields (±SD) for the low-, medium-, and high-density treatments were 4,343 ± 1,025, 6,220 ± 399, and 7,231 ± 1,490 kg/ha, respectively. Fingerlings stocked at the lowest density reached a size significantly larger (176 ± 29 g or 26.9 ± 1.4 cm) than fingerlings stocked at medium density (135 ± 10 g or 24.8 ± 0.6 cm) or high density (114 ± 23 g or 23.4 ± 1.4 cm). Mean condition factors ranged from 0.88 to 0.91. Mean survival rates ranged from 45% to 51%. The equation that best (R 2 = 0.97) predicted fish length from weight was log e (L) = 1.649 + 0.318 log e (...

Zusammenfassung Hintergrund: Die sachgerechte Abbildung der Behandlungsfalle im DRG-System stellt die Grundlage der Vergutung fur die durchgefuhrte Behandlung in deutschen Krankenhausern dar. Dies kann nur uber eine ausreichend gute Kodierung der medizinischen Daten ermoglicht werden. Ziel der vorliegenden Studie war, den Einflus einer kontrollierten Leistungsdokumentation auf die klinischen Patientendaten zu untersuchen und die Auswirkungen einer verbesserten Kodierqualitat auf die theoretischen Ertragsvolumina im australischen AR-DRG-System zu ermitteln. Patienten und Methodik: Im Rahmen einer prospektiven Studie sind 1 914 Patientendatensatze einer dermatologischen Universitatsklinik nach Anwendung unterschiedlicher Dokumentationsstandards auf der Basis des AR-DRG-Systems V4.1 gruppiert und analysiert worden. Zur besseren Differenzierung des dermatologischen Behandlungsspektrums wurden die Patienten in elf Behandlungsgruppen eingeteilt, um gezielter Schwerpunkte aufzeigen zu konnen. Ergebnisse: Durch eine kontrollierte Leistungsdokumentation konnten Steigerungen von Casemix, Casemix-Index und mittlerem PKKS-Wert erzielt werden. Ebenso zeigte sich, dasuber gesteuerte Masnahmen zur Optimierung der Kodierqualitat langfristig die tatsachliche durchschnittliche Fallschwere einer Klinik abgebildet werden kann. Schlusfolgerungen: Unterschiedliche Dokumentationsstandards konnen drastische Auswirkungen auf die Erlossituation eines Krankenhauses haben. Unvollstandige Leistungsdokumentation, Fehl- und Uberkodierung stellen ein groses okonomisches Risiko fur ein Krankenhaus dar. Nur die Sicherstellung und Uberwachung einer hohen Kodierqualitat kann eine kostendeckende Erlossituation garantieren. Summary Background: High-quality coding of patient clinical data is mandatory for an effective DRG classification to result in adequate allocation of funding for in-patient treatment. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of controlled documentation on patient clinical data and to ascertain the outcome of calculated DRG-based yields depending on higher coding quality of patient treatment. Patients and methods: In a prospective study, 1914 patient clinical records from the Department of Dermatology, University of Muenster, were captured using different documentation standards and the data was analysed. Grouping was performed on the basis of the Australian Refined DRG system v4.1. Dermatological patients were broken down into eleven groups based on principle diagnosis. Results: As a result of a controlled documentation, case mix, case mix index and patient clinical complexity level (PCCL) value were increased within identical samples. Furthermore, it was shown that high-quality coding may result in exact and reasonable classification of patient clinical data. Conclusions: Different documentation standards may cause undesired effects on the monetary yields of in-patient treatment. It appears that high-quality coding and controlled documentation may guarantee adequate yields. Faulty, incomplete and (up)coding could be a potential economic risk for hospitals.

We conduct an extensive review of the literature on testosterone and economic risk-taking behavior. In sum, there is evidence of a positive association between testosterone and economic risk taking, although it is unlikely to be a strong association given the abundance of null results. However, we argue that the existing literature may overstate the causal effects of testosterone on economic risk taking (or even report a spurious correlation) because this research has not considered the potentially confounding role of social status. Status could concurrently influence both testosterone and economic risk taking, given that testosterone is a social hormone with a reciprocal relationship with social status, and social status has been found to drive risk-taking behavior. We also argue against using findings from this literature to make gender essentialist claims, primarily because social phenomena influence the size—and existence—of gender differences in economic risk-taking behavior. We conclude with suggestions for future research.

type="graphical" xml:id="gpol12144-abs-0001"> While pursuing high economic growth, policy makers must be ready to bear the high economic risk accompanying that growth. The best policy is to find a realistic combination where the needed economic growth is pursued with controllable financial fluctuation.

— Different sizes of catfish fingerlings understocked in multiple-batch production may result in different survival, yield, cost, and economic risk. A pond production study was conducted to compare net yield, growth, survival, costs, and economic risk of understocking 7.6-cm, 12.7-cm. or 17.8-cm channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus fingerlings in growout ponds. Fingerlings were understocked at 15,000/ha with 1,369 kg/ha carryover fish averaging 0.58 kg. Mean growth rate increased significantly with size of fingerling understocked (1.4 ± 0.2 g/d, 1.8 ± 0.07 g/ d, and 2.2 ± 0.06 g/d for 7.6-cm, 12.7-cm, and 17.8-cm understocked fingerlings, respectively). Mean individual weights at harvest also increased significantly with size at stocking but none of the understocked fingerlings reached minimum market size (0.57 kg) over the 201-d study period. Survival of the smallest (7.6-cm) understocked fingerlings was significantly lower, but there was no difference in survival between the two other treatments. Net yields were highest for the two treatments understocked with 12.7- and 17.8-cm catfish and significantly lower for the treatment understocked with 7.6-cm fish. Growth of large carryover fish was significantly less in the treatment understocked with 17.8-cm fingerlings. Breakeven production costs were highest for the treatment understocked with 7.6-cm fish and lower for the other two treatments. The risk analysis showed that it was very likely that the 12.7- and 17.8-cm understocked fish could be grown profitably (very little risk of costs exceeding $ 1.32/kg—$1.65/kg). However, the risk of growing out 7.6-cm understocked fish at costs above market prices increased sharply. This static analysis indicated that the preferred size to understock in growout ponds would be 12.7 cm; however, additional work is needed in a dynamic framework to quantify the benefit of 17.8-cm fingerlings reaching market size earlier in the second year.

Singapore is the least corrupt country in Asia according to the annual surveys recently conducted by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy and Transparency International. This article deals with the major causes of corruption in Singapore during the colonial period, it describes the features of Singapore’s anti-corruption strategy, and identifies six lessons to be learned from Singapore’s experience in fighting corruption.

Many variables influence yields of grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and make it difficult to provide appropriate recommendations to managers concerning planting dates, seeding rates, and hybrid maturity classes. General recommendations in extension publications provide a wide range of possible planting dates and seeding rates and usually suggest planting the latest maturing hybrid within the limitations of projected moisture availability and average length of growing season. Most research related to these issues focuses on just one variable, while holding others constant. This study used simulated grain sorghum yields to provide an economic risk analysis of planting date, seeding rate, and hybrid maturity for grain sorghum production in Kansas. The results showed that optimal planting dates, seeding rates, and maturity classes vary by location and risk preference. In general, the results indicate that extremely risk-averse managers would choose somewhat later planting dates, earlier maturing hybrids, and lower seeding rates than less risk-averse or risk-preferring managers.

This paper outlines some of the arguments for and against the funding of public pensions, with a view to establishing whether there is an economic basis for judging it to be superior to pay-as-you-go (PAYG). It is concluded that if funding has an edge over PAYG, it is not an overwhelming one. While funding may have a modest cost advantage over PAYG and have superior characteristics from the standpoint of intergenerational redistribution, its alleged superiority in handling demographic and economic risk, as well as in signalling future pension costs, is difficult to justify. While theoretical arguments tend to be consistent with the view that funding will be associated with higher saving than PAYG, convincing empirical support is missing. Nevertheless, the momentum for shifting from PAYG to funding remains. But if there is to be such a shift, there may also be a case for shifting from public to private pension provision.

The present paper is an attempt to establish some stylized facts about the process of export diversification and structural change in exports for six key Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. There has been a long-run trend toward export diversification in the region which has persisted through both inward- and outward-looking policy experiments, and over a variety of macroeconomic conditions. Structural change in exports accelerated during the debt crisis episode of the early 1980s, and more rapid structural change may be associated with policy reform. Our results suggest that important sources of economic risk in Latin America may be declining in the long run, and that economic risk is less sensitive to political risk than is often assumed. 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Does fair trade reduce migration? Yes, but the answer is nuanced. Farmers who are able to sell their produce under fair trade terms are much less likely to leave their farms for urban destinations within their own country. But participation in fair trade and international migration are very compatible strategies because migration is an important way to diversify economic risk. Whether or not farmers or their family members migrate is more influenced by their community's history of migration (or nonmigration) than by fair trade. Keywords: political economy; labor supply; labor; poverty; social justice

Efficient allocation of remediation resources is a critical need throughout the nation. Economic risk-cost-benefit analysis is an important tool for meeting this need. This paper provides site engineers, geologists, and managers with a conceptual understanding of economic risk-cost-benefit analysis and shows how it can be applied, even in situations where existing data are sparse or poor in quality. An example analysis is applied to the remediation of radioactive waste at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in which the cost-effectiveness is compared for two remediation alternatives: containment of the waste or monitoring only. A data-worth analysis is also carried out to estimate the maximum justifiable exploration budget and the cost-effectiveness of two proposed data collection programs. Results indicate that the methodology has potential in making robust remediation decisions regarding certain types of questions.

The short-run effects of fungicide application on economic risk and the effects of risk on fungicide use in Swiss wheat production are empirically explored. A quadratic production function model is developed. With the help of the moment-based approach, marginal contributions of fungicides (representing controlled inputs) and of rain (representing uncontrolled inputs) to the variances of yield and revenue are analyzed. It is not possible to show risk-reducing effects of fungicides on yield or revenue. At low rain quantities during the vegetation period fungicides have a statistically significant risk-increasing effect on revenue. Increasing risk leads Swiss wheat growers to use more fungicide. This increase is statistically significant at higher levels of revenue. For example, when risk is doubled fungicide inputs are raised by 44% at the highest revenue quartile.

Production of early maturing rather than traditionally maturing soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] varieties can benefit producers through crop diversification that spreads economic risk and through earlier harvest that allows timely fall planting of winter cereals. However, planting system can influence the success of early maturing soybean production. This study was conducted to determine the effect of ANH (April, narrow 7-in. rows, high population-336 000 seeds/acre) and JWL (June, wide 30-in. rows, low population-139 000 seeds/acre) planting systems on yield, plant and lowest pod heights, and visual grain quality of early maturing (Maturity Groups [MGs] 00, 0, and I) and traditionallyl maturing (MGs III, IV, and V) soybean varieties. In 1987, early maturing soybean varieties yielded more than 30 bu/acre when planted in the ANH system, but yields of these varieties were approximately 50% lower in the JWL system. 'Hodgson 78' (MG I) yielded 41 bu/acre in the ANH system in 1987; this yield was higher than yields of all other varieties except 'Bay' (MG V) planted in the JWL system. From 1988 through 1990 in either system, Hodgson 78 yielded 20 to 30 bu/acre, which was equal to or greater than the yields of all other varieties except 'Zane' planted in the ANH system in 1990. Plant heights of early maturing varieties were generally shorter than those of the determinate varieties, 'Crawford' (MG IV) and Bay (MG V). Lowest pod height of early maturing soybean varieties ranged from 1 to 4 in. during all years, whereas later maturing varieties podded as high as 8 in. from ground level. Quality of grain varied by year, but in 1987, grain quality of the early maturing varieties was improved by the ANH planting system. These results show that early maturing soybean varieties from MG I offer a viable alternative to traditional MGs; however, additional research is needed to refine these new management systems.

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between perceived risk regarding apparel selection and mail order shopping. One-hundred and two adult women from a medium-sized midwestern city in the U.S.A. participated in a telephone survey. Factor analysis uncovered four distinct types of risk associated with mail order shopping: economic, performance-related, physical and social/psychological. Multivariate and univariate analyses revealed that economic risk was the only risk that was significantly different from other categories of risk. A Scheffe post hoc comparison indicated that economic risk was higher for respondents who were non- or infrequent mail order shoppers than for frequent mail order shoppers. These results contribute to the literature on mail order shopping by isolating the product category of apparel. The results can aid catalogue and other direct marketing companies by suggesting that they focus on alleviating economic losses of future clients, thereby making it easier for consumers to capitalize on the convenience features of this patronage mode.

This research compared fashion preferences of males and females and the types of risk that they perceived in both men's and women's clothing styles. Thirty married couples responded to drawings of six men's suits and six dresses using a semantic differential and full forced-choice paired comparison. Polar adjectives were selected to describe temporal quality of styles and specific types of per ceived risk. Males and females ranked clothing for themselves and for the other sex in the same order of preference and classified styles into the same temporal categories. Most-preferred and least-preferred garments were described using the same words; preferences for suits and dresses were associated with aesthetic appeal and performance risk. Males and females differed in their descriptions of the aesthetic appeal and economic risk of the garments. Both sexes judged the aesthetic appeal of styles for the other sex more favorably than that of styles for themselves. Males and females differed in their perceptions of money risk but not in their perceptions of performance risk. These differences could contribute to conflict between husbands and wives about clothing choices for each other and the cost of garments.

Large damage and business losses can result from heater fires and explosions and these occur fairly often. An economic risk analysis using fault tree/event techniques can efficiently determine heater protection system retrofit priorities— and show where money does not need to be spent.

What kinds of clothing styles do people see as having greater or lesser economic risk? What are the dimensions of this risk? Female university students responded to drawings of three dress styles (shirtwaist, chemise, softly fitted), each shown in four variations, by using selected polar adjectives describing economic risk, other types of perceived risk, and certain characteristics of the dresses. Data were examined by analysis of variance, graphing, and correlation. The three economic word pairs differentiated among styles and variations. Inexpensive-costly seemed to measure primarily money risk. Luxury-necessity was associated with performance and overall risk. Rich–poor functioned least well of the eco nomic word pairs. Of the three styles, the shirtwaist was seen as lowest in economic risk; variations having larger amounts of fabric were seen as higher in economic risk, but this risk was related to general impressions of formality and drama, rather than directly to amount of fabric. Economic risk did not seem to be related to texture of fabric.

Clothing-related risk perceptions of wheelchair-bound consumers were examined and then compared to risk perceptions of able-bodied consumers reported in previous studies. A scenario was used which involved the purchase of a pair of pants or slacks for a job interview to measure specific and overall clothing-related risk perceptions of 75 wheelchair-bound consumers. These disabled consumers perceived the order of clothing-related risk components as: physical, performance, psychological, economic and social. In previous studies, able-bodied students, reported a reverse order of perceived clothing-related risks. In this study, performance and social risk significantly correlated with overall risk; the same correlations held for able-bodied consumers in previous studies. Unique to this study were the high correlations of physical risk with psychological risk and economic risk. Wheelchair-bound males and persons with congenital disabilities perceived greater overall risk than other disabled consumers in this study.

SUMMARY The paper analyzes risk allocation in large-scale resource ventures. High set-up costs, a long gestation period of ten years and more and a high financial risk are characteristics for large-scale resource ventures. Financial risk is the result of economic risk (price risk, cost risk), technological risk (innovation in extraction, exploration) and political risk (taxation schemes, extraction rights). Large-scale resource ventures represent an interesting case of risk allocation in which many players are involved. Institutional arrangements for risk allocation in large-scale resource ventures are interpreted as a complex net of contractual relationships between different players. The paper analyzes a theoretical framework in which risk allocation is studied. Policies of risk shifting for the individual agent and institutional arrangements for risk shifting in the case of large-scale resource ventures are studied. The net of relations between different players is a check on the strategic behavior arising from idiosyncratic problems and thus reduces contract risk. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Der Artikel untersucht die Risikoallokation bei Ressourcengrossprojekten. Hohe Anfangsinvestitionen, eine lange Ausreifungszeit der Investition von zehn oder mehr Jahren und ein hohes finanzielles Risiko sind die Merkmale von Ressourcengrossprojekten. Das finanzielle Risiko ist das Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Risiken (Preisrisiken, Kostenrisiken), technologischer Risiken (innovative Explorations- und Abbautechniken) und politischer Risiken (Besteuerungsmodalitaten, Abbaurechte). Ressourcengrossprojekte stellen einen interessanten Fall fur Risikoallokation zwischen vielen Spielern dar. Institutionelle Arrangements der Risikoallokation bei Ressourcengrossprojekten konnen als komplexes Netz von vertraglichen Beziehungen interpretiert werden. In der Arbeit wird ein theoretischer Rahmen entwickelt, in dem die Allokation von Risiken analysiert werden kann. Strategien der Risikoreduktion fur einzelne Agenten durch interne Anpassungen und institutionelle Ausgestaltungen der Risikoubertragung im Falle der Ressourcengrossprojekte werden untersucht. Das Netz von vertraglichen Beziehungen dient auch dazu, das Risiko des Vertragsbruches zu vermindern. RESUME Dans cet article, l'allocation des risques dans des mega-projets de l'industrie extrac-trice de matieres premieres est analysee. Les traits caracteristiques de tels projets sont des couts eleves d'investissement, un long temps de gestation de dix ans ou plus et un grand risque financier. Le risque financier resulte de risques economiques (risque de prix, risque de frais), de risques technologiques (innovations ȩ l'exploitation et ȩ l'extraction) et de risques politiques (modalites de taxation, droits d'exploitation). Les mega-projets de l'industrie extractrice de matieres premieres representent un cas tres interessant dans lequel beaucoup de joueurs prennent part ȩ l'allocation des risques. Les arrangements institutionnels de transmission de risque peuvent ȩtre interpreted comme un filet complexe de relations contractuelles. Dans cet article, un cadre theorique est developpe dans lequel l'allocation de risque est etudiee. De plus, des strategies de reduction des risques pour des agents individuels et des arrangements institutionels de transmission de risque sont analyses. Le systeme des relations contractuelles sert egalement ȩ reduire le risque d'une violation de contrat.

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.