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Cognitive decline and osteoporosis often coexist and some evidence suggests a causal link. However, there are no data on the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline, bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging. This study aimed to determine the association between: (i) cognitive decline and bone loss; and (ii) clinically significant cognitive decline (≥3 points) on Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) over the first 5 years and subsequent fracture risk over the following 10 years. A total of 1741 women and 620 men aged ≥65 years from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were followed from 1997 to 2013. Association between cognitive decline and (i) bone loss was estimated using mixed-effects models; and (ii) fracture risk was estimated using adjusted Cox models. Over 95% of participants had normal cognition at baseline (MMSE ≥ 24). The annual % change in MMSE was similar for both genders (women -0.33, interquartile range [IQR] -0.70 to +0.00; and men -0.34, IQR: -0.99 to 0.01). After multivariable adjustment, cognitive decline was associated with bone loss in women (6.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2% to 9.9% for each percent decline in MMSE from baseline) but not men. Approximately 13% of participants experienced significant cognitive decline by year 5. In women, fracture risk was increased significantly (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.34). There were too few men to analyze. There was a significant association between cognitive decline and both bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging, in women. Further studies are needed to determine mechanisms that link these common conditions. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current under-management of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged ≥60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture, and mortality, accounting for their complex inter-relationships, confounding effects and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow up of 13 years (IQR: 7, 15). The prediction model included gender, age, BMD, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow up, and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years following hip fractures to 15 years following non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year old woman with a T-score of -1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% following a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualisation of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Cognitive decline and osteoporosis often coexist and some evidence suggests a causal link. However, there are no data on the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline, bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging. This study aimed to determine the association between: (i) cognitive decline and bone loss; and (ii) clinically significant cognitive decline (>= 3 points) on Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) over the first 5 years and subsequent fracture risk over the following 10 years. A total of 1741 women and 620 men aged >= 65 years from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were followed from 1997 to 2013. Association between cognitive decline and (i) bone loss was estimated using mixed-effects models; and (ii) fracture risk was estimated using adjusted Cox models. Over 95% of participants had normal cognition at baseline (MMSE >= 24). The annual % change in MMSE was similar for both genders (women -0.33, interquartile range [IQR] -0.70 to +0.00; and men -0.34, IQR: -0.99 to 0.01). After multivariable adjustment, cognitive decline was associated with bone loss in women (6.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2% to 9.9% for each percent decline in MMSE from baseline) but not men. Approximately 13% of participants experienced significant cognitive decline by year 5. In women, fracture risk was increased significantly (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.34). There were too few men to analyze. There was a significant association between cognitive decline and both bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging, in women. Further studies are needed to determine mechanisms that link these common conditions. (c) 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR). The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR); Merck Frosst Canada Ltd.; Eli Lilly Canada Inc.; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Inc.; The Alliance: sanofi-aventis & Procter and Gamble Pharmaceuticals Canada Inc.; Servier Canada Inc.; Amgen Canada Inc.; The Dairy Farmers of Canada; and The Arthritis Society. This work was supported by the National Health Medical Research Council Australia Projects 1070187, 1008219, and 1073430. Other funding bodies were an Osteoporosis Australia-Amgen grant; the Bupa Health Foundation (formerly MBF Foundation); the Mrs Gibson and Ernst Heine Family Foundation; and untied grants from Amgen, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Sanofi-Aventis, Servier, and Novartis