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In this paper we study a class of multivariate partially linear regression models. Various estimators for the parametric component and the nonparametric component are constructed and their asymptotic normality established. In particular, we propose an estimator of the contemporaneous correlation among the multiple responses and develop a test for detecting the existence of such contemporaneous correlation without using any nonparametric estimation. The performance of the proposed estimators and test is evaluated through some simulation studies and an analysis of a real data set is used to illustrate the developed methodology. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 1–22; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada Dans cet article, nous etudions une classe de modeles de regression multivariee partiellement lineaires. Nous developpons plusieurs estimateurs des composantes parametrique et non parametrique et etablissons leur normalite asymptotique. Nous proposons notamment un estimateur de la correlation contemporaine parmi les reponses multiples et nous construisons un test pour detecter l'existence d'une telle correlation sans utiliser aucune estimation non parametrique. La performance des estimateurs et du test proposes est evaluee par le biais d'etudes de simulation et la methodologie elaboree est illustree par l'analyse d'un ensemble de donnees reelles. La revue canadienne de statistique 41: 1–22; 2013 © 2013 Societe statistique du Canada

The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples. Etude de I'influence locale dans les modeles multi-niveaux Les auteurs etudient l'influence locale des observations dans les modeles de regression multi-niveaux. A cette fin, ils perturbent a la fois les variances, les variables endogenes et la matrice d'incidence. Pour mesurer le changement local cause par ces perturbations, ils se servent des statistiques de Cook generalisees associees aux estimations des effets fixes et aleatoires. Des formules explicites leur permettent aussi de mesurer l'influence locale conjuguee de diverses observations. Ils suggerent une methode de calcul simple et illustrent leurs resultats a l'aide de deux exemples.

The authors consider a semiparametric partially linear regression model with serially correlated errors. They propose a new way of estimating the error structure which has the advantage that it does not involve any nonparametric estimation. This allows them to develop an inference procedure consisting of a bandwidth selection method, an efficient semiparametric generalized least squares estimator of the parametric component, a goodness-of-fit test based on the bootstrap, and a technique for selecting significant covariates in the parametric component. They assess their approach through simulation studies and illustrate it with a concrete application. L'inference dans le cadre d'un modele de regression semiparametrique partiellement lineaire a termes d'erreur correles en serie Les auteurs s'interessent a un modele de regression semiparametrique partiellement lineaire a termes d'erreur correles en serie. Ils proposent une facon originale d'estimer la structure d'erreur qui a l'avantage de ne faire intervenir aucune estimation non parametrique. Ceci leur permet de developper une procedure d'inference comportant un choix de fenětre, l'emploi de la methode des moindres carres generalises pour l'estimation semiparametrique efficace de la composante parametrique, un test d'adequation fonde sur le reechantillonnage et une technique de selection des covariables significatives de la composante parametrique. Ils evaluent leur approche par voie de simulation et en donnent une illustration concrete.

The authors study a varying-coefficient regression model in which some of the covariates are measured with additive errors. They find that the usual local linear estimator (LLE) of the coefficient functions is biased and that the usual correction for attenuation fails to work. They propose a corrected LLE and show that it is consistent and asymptotically normal, and they also construct a consistent estimator for the model error variance. They then extend the generalized likelihood technique to develop a goodness of fit test for the model. They evaluate these various procedures through simulation studies and use them to analyze data from the Framingham Heart Study. Estimation polynomiale locale corrigee dans les modeles a coefficients variables comportant des erreurs de mesure Les auteurs s'interessent a un modele de regression a coefficients variables dont certaines cova-riables sont entachees d'erreurs additives. Ils montrent que l'estimateur localement lineaire (ELL) usuel des coefficients fonctionnels est biaise et que le facteur de correction habituel du phenomene d'attenuation est inefficace. Ils proposent une version corrigee de l'ELL qui s'avere convergente et asymptotiquement normale; ils suggerent aussi une estimation convergente de la variance du terme d'erreur du modele. Une adaptation de la technique de vraisemblance generalisee leur permet en outre d'elaborer un test d'adequation du modele. Ils evaluent ces diverses procedures par voie de simulation et s'en servent pour analyser des donnees issues de l'etude Framingham sur les risques cardiometaboliques.

The authors define a class of "partially linear single-index" survival models that are more flexible than the classical proportional hazards regression models in their treatment of covariates. The latter enter the proposed model either via a parametric linear form or a nonparametric single-index form. It is then pos sible to model both linear and functional effects of covariates on the logarithm of the hazard function and if necessary, to reduce the dimensionality of multiple covariates via the single-index component. The par tially linear hazards model and the single-index hazards model are special cases of the proposed model. The authors develop a likelihood-based inference to estimate the model components via an iterative algorithm. They establish an asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed estimators, examine their finite-sample behaviour through simulation, and use a set of real data to illustrate their approach. Une classe de modeles de survie partiellement lineaires a indice simple Rgsum=: Les auteurs d6finissent une classe de modeles de survie dits "partiellement lineaires a indice simple" qui s'averent plus flexibles que les modeles de regression a risques proportionnels classiques dans le traitement des covariables. Ces dernieres entrent dans le modele propose soit sous une forme lin6aire param6trique, soit sous une forme a indice simple non parametrique. I1 est alors possible de modeliser a la fois des effets lineaires et fonctionnels de covariables sur le logarithme du risque, et de reduire au besoin la dimension de covariables multiples par l'intermediaire de la composante a indice simple. Les modeles a risques partiellement lineaires et a indice simple sont des cas speciaux du modele propose. Les auteurs developpent une methode d'inf6rence vraisemblantiste pour l'estimation des composantes du modele au moyen d'un algorithme it6ratif. Ils d6terminent la loi asymptotique des estimateurs proposes, en etudient le comportement a taille finie par voie de simulation et illustrent leur approche a l'aide de donnees reelles.

The authors propose a block empirical likelihood procedure to accommodate the within-group correlation in longitudinal partially linear regression models. This leads them to prove a nonparametric version of the Wilks theorem. In comparison with normal approximations, their method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, which makes it easier to conduct inference on the parametric component of the model. An application to a longitudinal study on fluctuations of progesterone level in a menstrual cycle is used to illustrate the procedure developed here. Une vraisemblance empirique par bloc pour les modeles de regression partiellernent lineaires longitudinaux Les auteurs proposent une procedure a base de vraisemblance empirique par bloc pour tenir compte de la correlation intra-groupe dans des modeles de regression partiellement lineaires longitudinaux. Ceci les ameneo a demontrer une version non parametrique du theoreme de Wilks. A la difference des approximations normales, leur methode ne fait pas appel a un estimateur convergent de la matrice des cova-riances asymptotiques, ce qui facilite l'inference concernant la composante parametrique du modele. Une etude longitudinale sur la fluctuation du niveau de progesterone pendant le cycle menstruel sert a illustrer le propos.

The authors extend the block external bootstrap to partially linear regression models with strongly mixing, nonstationary error terms. In addition to providing an approximate distribution for the semiparametric least square estimator of the parametric component, they propose a consistent estimator of the co-variance matrix of this estimator. Les auteurs etendent le bootstrap externe par bloc aux modeles partiellement lineaires dont les termes d'erreur sont fortement melangeants et non stationnaires. En plus de donner une approximation de la loi de l'estimateur des moindres carres semiparametrique de la composante parametrique, ils proposent un estimateur convergent de la matrice de covariance de cet estimateur.

Insight into the causes and consequences of changes in aquatic biodiversity requires an improved understanding of the nature of the relationships between species richness and ecosystem function over a much longer temporal perspective than we currently possess. We used high-resolution paleoecological records from two prairie lakes to show that diatom species richness (as fossil frustules) was negatively correlated ( r 2 5 0.09‐0.24, p , 0.001) with diatom production (as fossil pigments) during the past 2,000 yr. By comparing analyses from intervals of fresh and saline waters, we demonstrate that these significant richness‐production relationships arose during freshwater periods (r 2 5 0.13‐0.45, p , 0.001) and could be eliminated (r 2 , 0.02, p . 0.1) by abiotic disturbances such as droughts. Procrustes analyses of the concordance of species change within freshwater communities and the change in richness‐ production relationships through time revealed that shifts in diatom community composition could have a large influence in determining the negative relationship between richness and production. Finally, significant correlations (r 2 5 0.09‐0.24, p , 0.0001) between past diatom species richness and ratios of stable isotopes (primarily d 15 N) suggested that C and N biogeochemical cycles are also linked to changes in algal biodiversity. Taken together, these analyses suggest that the ongoing disruption of climate and biogeochemical systems by humans may obscure the relationship between aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem function in the future.

The authors provide a rigorous large sample theory for linear models whose response variable has been subjected to the Box-Cox transformation. They provide a continuous asymptotic approximation to the distribution of estimators of natural parameters of the model. They show, in particular, that the maximum likelihood estimator of the ratio of slope to residual standard deviation is consistent and relatively stable. The authors further show the importance for inference of normality of the errors and give tests for normality based on the estimated residuals. For non-normal errors, they give adjustments to the log-likelihood and to asymptotic standard errors.

This paper studies general sufficient conditions for the geometric ergodicity and the existence of moments for a class of nonlinear autoregressive models with nonlinear ARCH errors. Applications of these conditions to various well-known nonlinear time series models yield specific sufficient conditions, many of which are new or generalizations of existing conditions.

Threshold autoregressive models are widely used in time-series applications. When building or using such a model, it is important to know whether conditional heteroscedasticity exists. The authors propose a nonparametric test of this hypothesis. They develop the large-sample theory of a test of nonlinear conditional heteroscedasticity adapted to nonlinear autoregressive models and study its finite-sample properties through simulations. They also provide percentage points for carrying out this test, which is found to have very good power overall.

The authors give easy-to-check sufficient conditions for the geometric ergodicity and the finiteness of the moments of a random process xt = ϕ(xt-1,…, xt-p) + ϵtσ(xt-1,…, xt-q) in which ϕ: Rp R, σ Rq R and (ϵt) is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. They deduce strong mixing properties for this class of nonlinear autoregressive models with changing conditional variances which includes, among others, the ARCH(p), the AR(p)-ARCH(p), and the double-threshold autoregressive models. Les auteurs enoncent des conditions faciles a verifier qui garantissent l'ergodicite geometrique et la finitude des moments d'un processus aleatoire xt = ϵ(xt-1,…, xt-p) + ϵtσ(xt-1,…, xt-q) defini a partir de fonctions ϕ: Rp R, σ: Rq R et d'une suite (ϵt) d'aleas independants de měme loi. Ils en deduisent des proprietes de melangeance forte pour cette classe de modeles autoregressifs non lineaires a variances conditionnelles variables qui englobe, entre autres, les modeles ARCH(p), les modeles AR(p)-ARCH(p), ainsi que les modeles autoregressifs a double seuil.

A Box-Cox transformed linear model usually has the form y(λ) = μ + β1x1 +… + βpxp + oe, where y(λ) is the power transform of y. Although widely used in practice, the Fisher information matrix for the unknown parameters and, in particular, its inverse have not been studied seriously in the literature. We obtain those two important matrices to put the Box-Cox transformed linear model on a firmer ground. The question of how to make inference on β = (β1,…,βp)T when λ; is estimated from the data is then discussed for large but finite sample size by studying some parameter-based asymptotics. Both unconditional and conditional inference are studied from the frequentist point of view. Un modele lineaire transforme suivant Box-Cox a habituellement la forme y(λ) = μ+β1x1 +…+ βpxp + oϵ, ou y(λ) est est la transformation puissance de y. Malgre le fait qu'elle est communement utilisee dans la pratique, la matrice d'information de Fisher pour les parametres inconnus et, en particulier, son inverse n'ont pas ete etudiees serieusement dans la litterature. Dans cet article, nous obtenons ces deux importantes matrices ce qui permet de placer le modele lineaire transforme suivant Box-Cox sur des bases plus solides. Nous etudions I'inference au sujet de β = (β1,….βp)T lorsque λ est estime a partir des donnees, cela pour un echantillon fini de grande taille et en considerant certaines asymptotiques fondees sur des parametres. Nous etudions, d'un point de vue frequentiel, les inferences inconditionnelle et conditionnelle.

Time series modelling methods can be loosely classified as (i) parametric methods and (ii) non-parametric methods. Within a usually quite flexible but well structured family of models, the parametric modelling process typically consists of model identification, parameter estimation, model diagnostic checking, and forecasting. On the other hand, within a much less structured framework, different non-parametric smoothing techniques are usually used to bring out the features of the observed time series, however, few serious and systematic attempts have been made to model time series non-parametrically. We concentrate on a non-parametric method based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Parallel to the parametric modelling process, we systemize a non-parametric modelling process as (i) model perception (where a very large spline expansion of a very large family of models is specified), (ii) model search (forward plus backward search to come up with a model), (iii) model diagnostic checking, and (iv) forecasting. The major difference between the MARS and the parametric methods is that the potential models for the MARS method form a family which is much larger than any family of parametric time series models, and the local structures found in the data are used to guide the search for a fitted model. Also, unlike most non-parametric methods, MARS time series models can be analytically written down. In this paper, we present the results of an empirical comparison of parametric (ARIMA) and non-parametric (MARS) time series modelling methods. Eight environmental time series are used for the comparison. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Very often in regression analysis, a particular functional form connecting known covariates and unknown parameters is either suggested by previous work or demanded by theoretical considerations so that the deterministic part of the responses has a known form. However, the underlying error structure is often less well understood. In this case, the transform-both-sides (TBS) models are appropriate. In this paper we generalize the usual TBS models and develop tests to assess goodness of fit when fitting TBS or GTBS models. Parameter estimation is discussed, and tests based on the Cramer-von Mises statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic are presented with a table suitable for finite-sample applications. Tres souvent, lors de l'analyse de la regression, une forme fonctionnelle particuliere reliant des “covariates” connus et des parametres inconnus est soit suggeree par des travaux anterieurs, soit exigee par des considerations theoriques afin que la partie deterministe des reponses ait une forme connue. Toutefois, la structure d'erreur sous-jacente est souvent moins bien comprise. Dans ce cas, les modeles TBS (“transform-both-sides”) sont appropries. Cet article generalise les modeles TBS habituels et developpe des tests pour evaluer la validite de l'ajustement lorsqu'on ajuste des modeles TBS ou GTBS. Nous discutons l'estimation des parametres et presentons des tests fondes sur la statistique Cramer-von Mises et la statistique Anderson-Darling avec un tableaux convenant a des applications a echantillon fini.

In this paper we consider the estimation of the degree of differencing d in the fractionally integrated autoregressive moving-average time series model ARFIMA (p, d, q). Using lag window spectral density estimators we develop a regression type estimator of d which is easy to calculate and does not require prior knowledge of p and q. Some large sample properties of the estimator are studied and the performance of the estimator for small samples is investigated using the simulation method for a range of commonly used lag windows. Some practical recommendations on the choice of lag windows and the choice of the window parameters are provided.