1. Simple non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms and nomogram for detecting undiagnosed diabetes mellitus
- Author
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Shing-Chung Siu, Carlos K. H. Wong, Fangfang Jiao, Angela Y. M. Leung, Cindy L. K. Lam, Colman Siu Cheung Fung, KW Wong, Eric Yuk Fai Wan, and Esther Yee Tak Yu
- Subjects
Glucose tolerance test ,Receiver operating characteristic ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,business.industry ,Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism ,030209 endocrinology & metabolism ,Nomogram ,Logistic regression ,medicine.disease ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Diabetes mellitus ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Family history ,business ,Risk assessment ,Algorithm ,Body mass index - Abstract
Background The aim of the present study was to develop a simple nomogram that can be used to predict the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the asymptomatic non-diabetic subjects based on non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk algorithms. Methods Anthropometric data, plasma fasting glucose, full lipid profile, exercise habits, and family history of DM were collected from Chinese non-diabetic subjects aged 18-70 years. Logistic regression analysis was performed on a random sample of 2518 subjects to construct non-laboratory- and laboratory-based risk assessment algorithms for detection of undiagnosed DM; both algorithms were validated on data of the remaining sample (n = 839). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to assess the calibration and discrimination of the DM risk algorithms. Results Of 3357 subjects recruited, 271 (8.1%) had undiagnosed DM defined by fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or 2-h post-load plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L after an oral glucose tolerance test. The non-laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 33, included age, body mass index, family history of DM, regular exercise, and uncontrolled blood pressure; the laboratory-based risk algorithm, with scores ranging from 0 to 37, added triglyceride level to the risk factors. Both algorithms demonstrated acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P = 0.229 and P = 0.483) and discrimination (AUC 0.709 and 0.711) for detection of undiagnosed DM. Conclusion A simple-to-use nomogram for detecting undiagnosed DM has been developed using validated non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk algorithms.
- Published
- 2015
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