1. Efficient estimation and particle filter for max-stable processes
- Author
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Zhengjun Zhang, Tsuyoshi Kunihama, and Yasuhiro Omori
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Mathematical optimization ,Bayes estimator ,Applied Mathematics ,05 social sciences ,Bayesian probability ,Markov chain Monte Carlo ,01 natural sciences ,Marginal likelihood ,Maxima and minima ,010104 statistics & probability ,symbols.namesake ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,symbols ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Maxima ,Extreme value theory ,Particle filter ,050205 econometrics ,Mathematics - Abstract
Extreme values are often correlated over time, for example, in a financial time series, and these values carry various risks. Max-stable processes such as maxima of moving maxima (M3) processes have been recently considered in the literature to describe time-dependent dynamics, which have been difficult to estimate. This article first proposes a feasible and efficient Bayesian estimation method for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models based on these processes and describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm where the sampling efficiency is improved by the normal mixture sampler. Furthermore, a unique particle filter that adapts to extreme observations is proposed and shown to be highly accurate in comparison with other well-known filters. Our proposed algorithms were applied to daily minima of high-frequency stock return data, and a model comparison was conducted using marginal likelihoods to investigate the time-dependent dynamics in extreme stock returns for financial risk management.
- Published
- 2011
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