1. Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic
- Author
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Gao, Chuanyu, Peters, Max, Kurver, Piet, Anbarasan, Thineskrishna, Jayaraajan, Keerthanaa, Manning, Todd, Cashman, Sophia, Nambiar, Arjun, Cumberbatch, Marcus, Lamb, Benjamin W, Pickard, Robert, Erotocritou, Paul, Smith, Daron, Kasivisvanathan, Veeru, Shah, Taimur T, BURST Collaborative MIMIC Study Group, Gao, Chuanyu [0000-0002-9824-6468], Manning, Todd [0000-0001-5609-3769], Cumberbatch, Marcus [0000-0001-5548-379X], Lamb, Benjamin W [0000-0003-2220-893X], Smith, Daron [0000-0001-8314-4795], Shah, Taimur T [0000-0003-1642-1208], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
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normogram ,predict ,Ureteric colic ,spontaneous stone passage ,multivariable - Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management. SUBJECT/PATIENTS: A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multi-centre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast CT-KUB. METHODS: SSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest AIC) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n=1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n=789). RESULTS: Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). Mean age (±[SD]) was 47 (±14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (OR 0.8, 95%CI 0.64-1.01, p=0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.06, p = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95%CI 0.59-1.05, p=0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95%CI 0.97-1.75, p =0.08), stone size >5-7mm (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.16-0.25, p7mm (OR 0.11, 95%CI 0.08-0.15, p
- Published
- 2022
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