Search

Historical patterns of hog slaughterings are analyzed and related to a hog-corn price ratio series using the transfer function or dynamic regression technique. This technique permits explicit tests of causal relationships and provides a systematic means for specifying distributed lag forms. It is determined that the hog-corn price ratio series leads hog slaughterings and that there is no feedback. The estimated transfer function is analyzed in terms of its implications for the supply of hogs and its implications for the length of the hog cycle. Nous analyserons les schemas historiques de l'abattage de pores et Us mettrons en correspondence avec une serie de rapportsprix du porc —prix du mais en ulilisant lafonction de transfert ou la technique de regression dynamique. Cette technique permet de tester explicitement les relations causales et foumit un moyen systematique de specifier les formes de retard distribue. On a determine que Vabattage de pores depend de la serie de rapports prix du pore —prix du mais mais que I'inverse n'est pas vrai. La fonction de transfert est analysee en fonction de ce qu'elle impliquepour I'approvisionnement en pores et pour la longueur du cycle chez les pores.

This study develops an empirical model for determining whether a nation's health care expenditures are experiencing a crisis based on the trend over time of the ratio of total health spending to total domestic expenditures. A dynamic regression model is applied to 22 OECD nations for the 1960–1994 period to estimate whether or not levels of health spending are converging towards a stable equilibrium and, if they are, what this equilibrium is and how long it will take to reach it. Crisis is defined as an empirically divergent process. The principal findings from this analysis are that: 1) three nations (France, Greece, and the United States) are experiencing a crisis according to this definition; 2) although the crisis potential is relatively high in all the OECD nations, there appears to be a critical region or threshold where the tendency towards crisis increases dramatically; 3) the time to reach equilibrium is generally quite long, indicating the opportunity for substantial policy intervention; and 4) Denmark stands out as a successful case where health costs have been contained.

Salinity changes in the Baltic Sea have been attributed to a lack of balance between irregular pulses of North Sea water penetrating the Danish Straits and the freshwater runoff to the Baltic Sea. Both pulses and runoff are controlled by climatic factors in the Atlantic. The occurrence of major pulses of oceanic water has proved unpredictable, being non-existent during the 1980s. We used dynamic regression models to relate the response of the Baltic Sea salinity to hypothetical controlling factors: westerly winds, freshwater runoff, and, ultimately, the Northern Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Our results provided evidence for general chain-of-events relationship between the NAO and a subsequent weather effect over the North Sea, which was finally extended to the Baltic Sea salinity. Westerly winds followed changes in the NAO with a lag of

The assessment of subjects' 'usual' intake of nutrients is important in assessing relationships between diet and disease and in identifying malnourished sub-groups of the populations. Estimation of the variation in intakes within subjects over time ('within variation') has importance in epidemiologic research; estimation of the between subject variation in the sample has use in defining the recommended dietary allowances that take into account the inter-individual differences. This paper estimates the between and within variances in the energy and protein intakes of 1189 Filipino children, based on 4 rounds of 24-hour recall data within a dynamic framework by means of maximum likelihood. The main findings are that the proportion of variation due to the within variance is higher for children from poorer households. Also, from the estimates of dynamic regression models for nutrient intakes of children and adults, it appears that school programmes that provide subsidized foods with good sources of protein to the poorest among school attendees will be cost effective.

The paper examines the role of "traded" and "domestic" goods prices in international capital transfers. Difficulties of measurement and conceptualization are discussed, and the causal relations between capital flows to Australia, Australia's terms of trade and "domestic prices" are investigated over the years 1870-1939 using Sargent's_(1976) dynamic regression test of Granger_(1969) causality. The results suggest: that capital inflow proceeded without causing the terms of trade of the importer to change; that the ratio of "domestic" to "traded" goods prices rose, helping to effect the capital transfer; and that "domestic" prices positively fedback on capital inflow. Copyright 1986 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

Dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation, the U.S. and Montana. The analysis for Montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated with letting the sample data help specify the model. Rational lags on average price received by farmers for calves and the ratio of fed beef to corn prices at Omaha constitute the primary explanatory variables. The equations perform exceedingly well over the sample period ( 1950–80) and in post-sample forecasts with the sample truncated back to 1970.