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A well‐functioning trade relationship between Canada and the United States is crucial to the economic vitality of the Canadian agri‐food industry. However, agri‐food trade is more susceptible than other sectors to political interventions. The Trump presidency has strained Canada–US relations and his trade policy actions have significantly increased trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty and undermined the rules‐based global trading system. We examine the pattern of agri‐food trade between the two countries and find that the upward trajectory of bilateral agri‐food trade ended in 2013. Although this flatlining predates the Trump administration, we show that Trump increased trade policy uncertainty starting in 2017 and likely impacted further expansion of trade. We examine what might change under the Biden presidency and argue that the new administration is likely to restore strong relationships with allies and work to rebuild important international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although protectionist forces will continue to impact bilateral agri‐food trade, we expect closer political ties between a Biden administration and the Canadian Prime Minister. This should have a positive effect on the Canadian agri‐food industry by reducing trade uncertainties, thereby increasing agri‐food trade between Canada and the United States. Une relation commerciale efficace entre le Canada et les Etats‐Unis est essentielle a la vitalite economique de l'industrie agroalimentaire canadienne. Cependant, le commerce agroalimentaire est plus sensible que les autres secteurs aux interventions politiques. La presidence Trump a mis a rude epreuve les relations canado‐americaines et ses mesures de politique commerciale ont considerablement accru les restrictions et l'incertitude en matiere de commerce en plus de miner les regles sur lesquelles le commerce mondial se fonde. Nous examinons la structure du commerce agroalimentaire entre les deux pays et constatons que croissance du commerce agroalimentaire bilateral a pris fin en 2013. Bien qu'une stagnation precede l'administration Trump, nous montrons que Trump a accru l'incertitude de la politique commerciale a partir de 2017, impactant negativement une probable expansion du commerce. Nous examinons ce qui pourrait changer sous une presidence Biden et affirmons que la nouvelle administration est susceptible de retablir des relations solides avec les allies et de travailler a la reconstruction d'importantes institutions internationales telles que l'OMC. Bien que les forces protectionnistes continueront d'avoir un impact sur le commerce agroalimentaire bilateral, nous nous attendons a des liens politiques plus etroits entre une administration Biden et le Premier ministre canadien. Cela devrait avoir un effet positif sur l'industrie agroalimentaire canadienne en reduisant les incertitudes commerciales, augmentant ainsi le commerce agroalimentaire entre le Canada et les Etats‐Unis.

The COVID‐19 pandemic has put unprecedented strain on food supply chains. Given the ever‐increasing degree of globalization, those supply chains very often stretch across international borders. In the short run, countries have largely been working to keep those supply chains intact and operating efficiently so that panic buying is cooled and shifts in consumption habits arising from personal isolation can be accommodated. Once the crisis has passed, based on what has been learned regarding the international food system's resilience, governments may wish to strengthen institutions that govern international trade. On the other hand, based on their COVID‐19 experience, governments may feel that they are too dependent on foreign sources of supply and may wish to reverse the impacts of globalization on their food systems. As a result, they may become increasingly isolationist, eschewing international cooperation. Which of these opposing forces will prevail may depend on the paths economies follow after the disequilibrium precipitated by the pandemic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

The increasing policy interests and the vivid academic debate on non-tariff measures (NTMs) has stimulated a growing literature on how NTMs affect agri-food trade. The empirical literature provides contrasting and heterogeneous evidence, with some studies supporting the ‘standards as catalysts’ view, and others favouring the ‘standards as barriers’ explanation. To the extent that NTMs can influence trade, understanding the prevailing effect, and the motivations behind one effect or the other, is a pressing issue. We review a large body of empirical evidence on the effect of NTMs on agri-food trade and conduct a meta-analysis to disentangle potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates. Our findings show the role played by the publication process and by study-specific assumptions. Some characteristics of the studies are correlated with positive significant estimates, others covary with negative significant estimates. Overall, we found that the effects of NTMs vary across types of NTMs, proxy for NTMs, and levels of details of studies. Not negligible is the influence of methodological issues and publication process.

Global food trade has become an increasingly crucial element for feeding the world's population. Enhancing bilateral or multilateral trust in food safety in international food trade is not only important for promoting the sustainable development of trade but is also beneficial for cooperation when facing a global food crisis. However, highly credible traceability systems (TSs) for the cross‐border movement of food are still absent in many countries and regions. Blockchain is regarded as a promising technology that can help build trust for transparency and security issues. In this paper, an interconnected conceptual traceability framework based on blockchain is proposed in order to increase trust in food safety during food trade. Taking the food trade between China and the European Union as an example, a conceptual framework is designed in order to take full advantage of existing TSs in these two locations, and the features of logistical flow, data flow, and blockchain flow are analyzed. Considering the data capacity and data privacy level, a hybrid data storage method combining on‐chain and off‐chain is adopted. Smart contracts according to the features of cross‐border food trade—including the recording of exportation data, exporter inspection data, shipment data, importer inspection data, importation data, and tracing queries—are packaged and deployed to a blockchain network. An effective operation mechanism involving the distribution of related rights for different roles is presented. The blockchain‐based TS framework has the advantages of enhancing bilateral trust in cross‐border food trade, providing a flexible and intelligent technical framework, and having effective operability. Future challenges, such as data security, special smart contracts, and consensus mechanisms, and interoperability with other systems, are discussed.

The “new‐new” trade theory has dramatically shifted the focus of international economics research to heterogeneous firms and the margins by which firms participate in international trade. However, few studies have examined the dynamics of agricultural trade at the firm level. This paper employs China Customs data comprising the universe of Chinese firm‐level agricultural import transactions over the period 2000–2009 and develops an empirical strategy to decompose the growth of Chinese agri‐food imports of its four major suppliers, Canada, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Our findings reveal that China's growth in agricultural imports is highly concentrated among a small group of firms, where the top 10% of Chinese agricultural importers account for nearly 90% of its agricultural imports. We also find evidence of a significant turn‐over of importers of agri‐food products. Over 40% of new firms entering China's agricultural import market during our sample exited after just 1.7 years. Finally, decomposing import growth patterns for Canada and its competing suppliers reveals significant differences in the intensive and extensive margins of trade that hold important implications for trade policies aimed at enhancing Canada's position as a major agri‐food supplier in the Chinese market.

The Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) substantially expands the authority of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to regulate fresh produce marketed in the United States. This article uses an equilibrium-displacement framework incorporating stochastic food-borne illness outbreaks to simulate long-run market effects of FSMA using the North American fresh-tomato industry as a case study. We demonstrate how, under FSMA, certain categories of suppliers will gain advantage over others. Growers and suppliers within the United States, and their buyers, are likely to gain relative to foreign producers and importers because FSMA imposes specific requirements for importers. Among fully regulated growers, large growers will benefit relative to small growers. Many producers have already adopted food-safety standards that closely resemble the FSMA rules, and the cost of implementing the FSMA requirements for these producers will be much lower than for other producers.

Hepatitis A infection, caused by hepatitis A virus (HAV), is the leading cause of human viral hepatitis throughout the world and is mainly propagated via the fecal–oral route. Transnational outbreaks of food-borne infections are reported with increasing frequency as a consequence of international food trade. Food-borne outbreaks caused by HAV are mainly associated with bivalve molluscs, produce (soft fruits and leafy greens), and ready-to-eat meals. The purpose of this paper was to conduct a structured and systematic review of the published literature on the current state of knowledge regarding the stability of HAV in foods as well as the efficacy of food processing strategies and to identify and prioritize research gaps regarding practical and effective mechanisms to reduce HAV contamination of foods. In particular, processing and disinfection strategies for the 3 food categories have been compiled in this review, including common and emerging food technologies. Overall, most of these processes can improve food safety; however, from a commercial point of view, none of the methods can guarantee total HAV inactivation without affecting the organoleptic qualities of the food product.

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has become a widespread phenomenon with a growing role in international trade, though agricultural trade is usually neglected in empirical works. This article identifies the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between New Member States (NMS) and the EU-27 in 1999–2010, by applying static and dynamic models with different specifications to panel data. Results show that IIT is mainly of a vertical nature in the NMS, though the majority of NMS export low quality agri-food products to EU-27 markets. Factor endowments are negatively related to agri-food horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), but positively to vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). Economic size is positively and significantly related to both types of IIT, while distance and IIT are found to be negatively related in both cases. Results also suggest that HIIT and VIIT are greater if a New Member State exports agri-food products to another NMS while EU accession has had positive and significant impacts on both HIIT and VIIT, suggesting that economic integration fosters IIT.

Summary A pathogen of great significance to amphibian populations is the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). It has been demonstrated as causing recent epizootics in wild populations and is also widely found in captive animals. It is listed as a notifiable disease within the pet, bait and food trade because of its risk of introduction into wild populations. Due to this status, there has been much emphasis on reliably identifying and quantifying the pathogens in amphibians. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has served as the recent standard for identifying this pathogen's presence. Newer technologies have greatly improved these reactions enabling researchers to use smaller volumes and run the reactions in less time. These ‘fast’ qPCR chemistries are gaining popularity because the reduced volumes required to run the reactions can save funding resources and reduce the time to data acquisition. In this study, we compare the results from differing reaction methodologies using the same DNA extracts from pathogens collected from wild sampled amphibians. In addition to comparing the standard methodology and fast methodology for both pathogens, we also conducted a reduced volume methodology using the standard TaqMan chemistry for Bd. Estimated pathogen loads from 114 field swab samples were compared among methodologies. We found that for Bd, all three methodologies produced similar results for prevalence (presence/absence) estimates. In terms of estimating pathogen loads in the samples, both the standard and fast methodologies produced comparable estimates but the reduced volume methodology exhibited significantly lower values. Therefore, it appears that the fast methodology is adequate for use with Bd, and potentially several other wildlife pathogens, in estimating both prevalence and quantity, but the reduced volume methodology is inadequate and not recommended for use in quantifying samples.

We estimate the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri-food trade using a gravity analysis that relies on detailed data on non-tariff measures (NTMs) collected by the NTM-Impact project. The data cover a broad range of import requirements for agricultural and food products for the EU and nine of its major trade partners. We find that trade is significantly reduced when importing countries have stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for plant products than exporting countries. For most other measures, due to their qualitative nature, we were unable to infer whether the importer has stricter standards relative to the exporter, and we do not find a robust relationship between these measures and trade. Our findings suggest that, at least for some import standards, harmonising regulations will increase trade. We also conclude that tariff reductions remain an effective means to increase trade even when NTMs abound.

We analyze the trade and welfare impact of quarantine measures imposed by Australia on imports of pigmeat. In particular, we account for changes to Australia's pigmeat quarantine policy over time including those changes related to the recent resolution of a WTO dispute between Australia and the European Union. Using a random utility model, and applying it to corner solutions in import decisions, tariff equivalents (by major trading partner) are estimated for the different pigmeat quarantine regimes implemented by Australia during the period 1988- 2009. The welfare impact on consumers, producers, and foreign exporters is computed using a partial equilibrium model calibrated on the econometric estimates. The quarantine regimes have a strong effect on trade and welfare with a tariff equivalent above 113% of average real world prices over the period analyzed.

This study develops an import demand model to explore the role of income in explaining the trade performance of low-, middle- and high-income countries with a special emphasis on Brazil, Russia, India and China – the BRIC economies. The study estimates the impact of the growth in per capita income on the trade of agrifood products using data from 52 countries and 20 agrifood products for the years 1990–2006. The results suggest that China, Russia and Brazil now have more income elastic import demands than other middle-income countries. Conversely, the income elasticities of import demand in India are similar to other low-income countries and for the most part statistically equal to zero.

The structure of Hungary’s food trade expansion over the period 1995–2003 and its implications for labour market adjustment are examined. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, we test the sensitivity of results to the choice of measurement and their implications for the results. Second, we introduce more industry-specific control variables. Third, we distinguish the short- and long-run adjustment effects. Our results provide some support for the smooth-adjustment hypothesis of intra-industry trade. Estimations confirm that industry-specific variables may have a significant effect on adjustment costs.

The main objective of this article is to examine econometric estimates of price elasticities of food trade functions. We investigate the relevance of the prominent gravity approach. This approach is based on the assumptions of symmetric, monotone, homothetic, Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences. We test all these assumptions using intra-European trade in cheese. In general, the assumptions made on preferences by the gravity approach are not supported by our dataset. The bias induced in the estimated price elasticities is ambiguous.

The Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects at Intellectual Property Rights contains several provisions that both allow for exclusion from patentability, as well as exceptions from the exercise of the rights of the patent holder. With the exception of the first part of article 30, none of these have until now been clarified by the World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) dispute-settlement system. Based on an in-depth analysis of a number of these TRIPS provisions, the article identifies whether and how human rights provisions, as well as more overall human rights principles, can be applied in order to strengthen and confer legitimacy to these exclusion and exception provisions. While there is general agreement of the weight of human rights, there is more disagreement on the relevance of human rights, primarily due to the general wording of human rights provisions. Without undertaking a full analysis of the relevant human rights provisions, the article finds that human rights also do provide guidance in negotiations and enforcement of intellectual property rights. An analysis of the prospects for taking into account human rights within the dispute-settlement system and in the political bodies of the WTO is also conducted.

Starting from a theoretically consistent gravity model, this paper first provides estimates of bilateral 'border effects' in food trade among Quad countries (Canada, USA, Japan and EU) at the ISIC 4-digit level. Then, it investigates the underlying reasons of border effect, assessing the role played by policy barriers (tariffs and non-tariff barriers) with respect to barriers unrelated to trade policy, such as information related costs and cultural proximity. In contrast with several previous findings, we show that policy barriers are part of the story in explaining the strong trade reduction effect induced by national borders, and this is especially true when we control for the endogeneity of trade policy to imports, as suggested by political economy arguments. Moreover, our results show that elements linked to cultural proximity and consumer preference for home goods, matter a great deal in explaining the magnitude of border effects. The trade reduction effect induced by these policy-unrelated components are from 1.5 to 3 times larger than that induced by policy barriers. These results have implications for the economic and welfare significance of national borders.

Changing agricultural trade patterns and policy have powerful but often misunderstood effects on food security in the medium term — partly because they are indirect and partly because insufficient attention is given to the key changes. Africa, in particular, is being squeezed. Current patterns of importing cereals and exporting other agricultural products depend upon price effects of both OECD protectionism and preferences. In the future changes to both could increase the price of cereal imports and reduce the volume and prices of exports. These shifts are not from the formal Doha negotiations on agriculture but from the re-arrangement of agricultural subsidies in OECD countries, changes in trade preferences, and Africa's limited technical capacity to participate actively in setting standards.

Price competition is a fundamental assumption in modeling trade. Empirical applications often use unit values as proxies for price. This is a problem if unit values cannot explain trade flows consistent with the price competition assumption. The paper determines whether this condition exists in food product trade. Trade balances by product are used to indicate successful competition in trade. Export and import unit values are used to determine if competition is dominated by price or nonprice competition. Trade flows are then categorized in four ways: successful price competition, unsuccessful price competition, successful nonprice competition, and unsuccessful nonprice competition. This categorization is applied to 372 food products using the Standard International Trade Classification. Nearly 40% of U.S. food exports could be characterized as dominated by nonprice competition. In those instances, we contend that unit values are not valid proxies for price, thereby limiting their usefulness in traditional import demand estimation and trade policy simulation models. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

En abordant les questions de la liberalisation de l'economie dans les pays d'Europe de l'Est, les AA. introduisent la dimension normative de la notion de marche, sur les plans de la rhetorique et de la legitimite politique. Ils invitent les chercheurs en sciences sociales a prendre des precautions methodologiques qui tiennent compte notamment de l'historicite et des processus empiriques par lesquels les societes non-europeennes produisent et se reproduisent. C'est dans ce cadre que la liberalisation des marches agricoles est-africains est envisagee et les AA. montrent les differences de regulation entre « marches abstraits » et « marches reels »

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.

The substantial investment in models of international food markets prior to and during the Uruguay Round of international trade negotiations has been a mixed blessing so far as the prospects for reform are concerned. At worst, results from these models have misled the negotiations because they have most often ignored a primary concern lending domestic political support to food market interventions, namely the avoidance of risks borne of dependence on international markets. In this paper the reasons for market insulating policies are reviewed and their links with protection elucidated. Some errors that have stemmed from the application of 'standard' but inappropriate models are noted. Finally, the implications of extending the standard method to include dynamic behaviour and market insulating policies are examined.

Despite i t s internal differences, the European Economic Community seems to be moving toward an established and permanent position as agricultural exporter. European nations have moved irreversibly from being an import market to bejng a self-sufficient and large-scale producer. An established and politically entrenched agriculture in the European Economic Community has widespread support and their general economic needs elevate agriculture to promirience in attacking trade deficits.

The Codex Alimentarius Commission was established in 1962 to implement the Joint FAO/WHO Food Standards Program. The purpose is to protect the health of consumers, ensure fair practices in food trade, promote coordination of food standards, and to draft, finalize, and publish standards. At the Twelfth Session of the Codex Alimentarius Commission in 1978, the establishment of a Codex Committee on Vegetable Proteins was accepted. The terms of reference for the Committee are “to elaborate definitions and worldwide standards for vegetable protein products deriving from soyabeans, cottonseed, groundnuts, cereals, and from other vegetable sources as they come into use for human consumption; and to elaborate guidelines on utilization of such vegetable protein products in the food supply system, on nutritional requirements and safety, on labeling, and other aspects as may seem appropriate.” The first meeting of the Codex Committee on Vegetable Proteins was held in Ottawa, November 1980. The Committee considered proposed international standards for vegetable protein flours, concentrates and isolates; reviewed draft guidelines for the use of vegetable proteins in foods; and considered labeling declarations concerning the use of vegetable proteins in other foods. In preparation for a second meeting of the Committee, a future program of work was established.