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The new generation of heterogeneous CPU/GPU computer systems offer much greater computational performance but are not yet widely used for climate modeling. One reason for this is that traditional climate models were written before GPUs were available and would require an extensive overhaul to run on these new machines. In addition, even conventional "high–resolution" simulations don't currently provide enough parallel work to keep GPUs busy, so the benefits of such overhaul would be limited for the types of simulations climate scientists are accustomed to. The vision of the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) project is to create a global atmospheric model with the architecture to efficiently use GPUs and horizontal resolution sufficient to fully take advantage of GPU parallelism. After 5 years of model development, SCREAM is finally ready for use. In this paper, we describe the design of this new code, its performance on both CPU and heterogeneous machines, and its ability to simulate real‐world climate via a set of four 40 day simulations covering all 4 seasons of the year. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the design and development of a 3 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, which has been fully rewritten in C++ using the Kokkos library for performance portability. This newly rewritten model is able to take advantage of the state–of–the–science high performance computing systems which use graphical processor units (GPUs) to mitigate much of the computational expense which typically plagues high–resolution global modeling. Taking advantage of this high–performance we are able to run four seasons of simulations at 3 km global resolution. We discuss the biases, including the diurnal cycle, by comparing model results with satellite and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ground‐based site data. Key Points: Describes the C++/Kokkos implementation of the Simple Cloud–Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAMv1)SCREAMv1 leverages GPUs to surpass one simulated year per compute day at global 3 km resolutionHigh resolution improves some meso‐scale features and the diurnal cycle but large‐scale biases require improvement across all four seasons [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air‐entraining whitecaps provide an important source of bubbles over the global oceans, yet the rate at which the associated air is entrained is not well known. This lack of understanding limits the ability to accurately parameterize bubble‐mediated gas exchange and sea spray aerosol flux. In this paper I present a model to predict the total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps and extend it to estimate the rate at which air is entrained per unit sea surface area. The model agrees well with existing models and measurements and can be forced by the rate at which energy is dissipated by the wavefield which can be routinely provided by spectral wave models. I then use the model to present the first distributions of the estimated total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps, as well as their rate of air entrainment and air degassing. Plain Language Summary: The amount of air in the oceans in the form of bubbles at any given time is not well known because of the difficulty associated with making in‐situ measurements. This lack of knowledge inhibits how well ocean‐atmosphere exchange processes that are driven by air and bubbles can be represented in climate models. In this paper, I present a new model to estimate the volume of air entrained by individual breaking waves called whitecaps, as well as how quickly the air is entrained into the oceans and how quickly it leaves the oceans when bubbles rise to the surface and burst. Key Points: A model for the entrainment of air by oceanic whitecaps is presented which agrees well with existing models and measurementsDistributions of the estimated volume of air entrained by individual oceanic whitecaps are presented for the first timeKey uncertainties in the air fraction and entrainment velocities of individual whitecaps remain due to a lack of measurements [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An array of atmospheric profile observations consists of three‐dimensional vectors representing pressure, temperature, and humidity, with each profile forming a continuous curve in this three‐dimensional space. In this paper, the Signature method, which can quantify a profile's curve, was adopted for the atmospheric profiles, and the accuracy of profile representations was investigated. The description of profiles by the signature was confirmed with adequate accuracy. The machine‐learning‐based model, developed using the signature, exhibited a high level of annual accuracy with minimal absolute mean differences in temperature and water vapor mixing ratio (<2.0 K or g kg−1). Notably, the model successfully captured the vertical structure and atmospheric instability, encompassing drastic variations in water vapor and temperature, even during intense rainfall. These results indicate the Signature method can comprehensively describe the vertical profile with information on how ordered values are correlated. This concept would potentially improve the representation of the atmospheric vertical structure. Plain Language Summary: The atmospheric profile can be visualized as a three‐dimensional curve representing pressure, temperature, and humidity. By utilizing the Signature method, we can measure and quantify the profile's curve, allowing for comprehensive modeling of the atmosphere. In this paper, we confirmed the accuracy of atmospheric profile representation using signatures and introduced the characteristics of signatures revealed through machine‐learning models. The description of profiles by the signature was confirmed with adequate accuracy. Moreover, the model demonstrated robust annual accuracy, with minimal temperature and water vapor discrepancies. It effectively captured the vertical structure and instability of the atmosphere, even during heavy rainfall, characterized by significant temperature and water vapor content fluctuations. Key Points: The utilization possibility of the Signature method for atmospheric profiles was confirmedBy utilizing the Signature method, we can measure and quantify the profile's curve, allowing for comprehensive modeling of the atmosphereThe machine‐learning model developed with the signature can predict the profiles with high annual accuracy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards and yet, quantifying their financial impacts remains a significant methodological challenge. It is therefore of high societal value to synthetically simulate TC tracks and winds to assess potential impacts along with their probability distributions for example, land use planning and financial risk management. A common approach to generate TC tracks is to apply storm detection methodologies to climate model output, but such an approach is sensitive to the method and parameterization used and tends to underestimate intense TCs. We present a global TC model (the UQAM‐TCW model thereafter) that melds statistical modeling, to capture historical risk features, with a climate model large ensemble, to generate large samples of physically coherent TC seasons. Integrating statistical and physical methods, the model is probabilistic and consistent with the physics of how TCs develop. The model includes frequency and location of cyclogenesis, full trajectories with maximum sustained winds and the entire wind structure along each track for the six typical cyclogenesis basins from IBTrACS. Being an important driver of TCs globally, we also integrate ENSO effects in key components of the model. The global TC model thus belongs to a recent strand of literature that combines probabilistic and physical approaches to TC track generation. As an application of the model, we show global hazard maps for direct and indirect hits expressed in terms of return periods. The global TC model can be of interest to climate and environmental scientists, economists and financial risk managers. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural hazards and yet, quantifying their financial impacts remains a difficult task. Being able to randomly simulate TCs and their features (such as wind speed) with mathematical models is therefore critical to build scenarios (and their corresponding probability) for land use planning and financial risk management. A common approach is to simulate TCs by tracking them directly in climate model outputs but this often underestimates the frequency of intense TCs while being computationally costly overall to generate a large number of events. For these reasons, many authors have looked into alternative approaches that replicate key physical features of TCs but rather using statistical models that are much less computationally demanding. This paper therefore presents a global TC model that leverages the strengths of both statistical and climate models to simulate a large number of TCs whose features are consistent with the physics and observations. As an important global phenomenon that affects TCs globally, we also integrate in our model the effects of El Niño. The paper focuses on the methodology and validation of each model component and concludes with global hazard maps for direct and indirect hits. Key Points: We present a global tropical cyclone (TC) wind model built upon a climate model large ensemble that can be used for risk analysisWe integrate ENSO into our model since it is a strong driver of storm annual frequency, cyclogenesis, trajectories, and intensityWe present global hazard maps consistent with statistical features of TC components and coherent with a global climate model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a contribution to national strategic energy planning, recent developments in meteorological modeling and wind generation technologies have improved the representation of the spatio‐temporal features of wind. This paper describes an updated Italian Wind Atlas (Atlante EOLico ItaliANo [AEOLIAN]) released in the early 2000s. The objective of AEOLIAN is to guide future wind generation to accord with ambitious European greenhouse gas emission targets set for 2030 and 2050. AEOLIAN is the result of a collaboration effort between Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico (RSE) SpA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which jointly developed a novel approach combining high‐resolution numerical weather modeling with the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) statistical technique. This paper uses dynamical model runs with hourly output for 1990–2019 with 4 km horizontal grid spacing. For 2015–2019, an inner grid nest with 1.33 km horizontal grid spacing is used. The AnEn is then employed to temporally extend the 5 years of high‐resolution runs back through 1990–2014 to create a 30‐year dataset for Italy and surrounding marine areas. A thorough verification is carried out using 104 observational stations homogeneously distributed throughout the territory. Compared with other state‐of‐the‐art products, AEOLIAN provides enhanced accuracy over complex terrain thanks to higher horizontal resolution and the assimilation of observational wind data over the domain, which result in a reduction of model bias on complex terrain and a better reconstruction of the wind distributions. Finally, a new WebGIS interface (https://atlanteeolico.rse-web.it/) to explore AEOLIAN data is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that "all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming" is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion "that spatial t‐statistics rejects the data‐model agreement" is also not sustainable. Plain Language Summary: Comparisons of models and observations need to account from multiple sources of uncertainty in both the observations and due to the chaotic dynamics of the weather. The analyses in Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) do not take either of these issues into account and thus the conclusions in that paper are not supportable. Key Points: Scafetta (2022) contains errors in both of the statistical tests used that make the conclusions unsupportable [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the "pattern effect." To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation. Plain Language Summary: Many properties of the atmosphere are affected by the temperature of the ocean surface. Knowing how strong these effects are would help us to better predict global warming. The response to a given surface warming depends on where the warming occurs. To account for this, researchers sometimes simulate the response to individual patches of warming and then assume the response to an arbitrary warming pattern can be summed together from these patch responses. This is sometimes called the atmospheric Green's function method, and it works well at recreating the atmospheric response to historical temperature changes. We are organizing a Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP), in which participants will apply the method consistently for many climate models. This paper presents the GFMIP protocol. In the course of developing this protocol, we found that the atmospheric response to warming is not proportional in all cases: the response to surface warming is not the opposite of the response to surface cooling; warming twice as much doesn't cause twice as much of a response; and making a patch of warming twice as large doesn't cause twice as large a response. GFMIP will help us figure out how to account for this nonlinearity. Key Points: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) explores the atmospheric response to surface temperature patch perturbationsThis paper presents the GFMIP protocol, which was generated using insights from past studies and new sensitivity testsGreen's functions reconstruct the response to historical temperatures, but nonlinearities can affect responses to other warming patterns [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the methodology for the construction of the KNMI'23 national climate scenarios for the Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part of the uncertainty in CMIP6 projections of future climate change in the region. Different sources of uncertainty are disentangled as much as possible, partly by means of a storyline approach. Uncertainty in future emissions is covered by making scenarios conditional on different SSP scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each SSP scenario and time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine a global warming level based on the median of the constrained estimates of climate sensitivity from IPCC AR6. The remaining climate model uncertainty of the regional climate response at these warming levels is covered by two storylines, which are designed with a focus on the annual and seasonal mean precipitation response (a dry‐trending and wet‐trending variant for each SSP). This choice was motivated by the importance of future water management to society. For users with specific interests we provide means how to account for the impact of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. Since CMIP6 GCM data do not provide the required spatial detail for impact modeling, we reconstruct the CMIP6 responses by resampling internal variability in a GCM‐RCM initial‐condition ensemble. The resulting climate scenarios form a detailed storyline of plausible future climates in the Netherlands. The data can be used for impact calculations and assessments by stakeholders, and will be used to inform policy making in different sectors of Dutch society. Plain Language Summary: To prepare society for the effects of future climate change, we need to know what the future climate will be like. In this paper we explain the method that is used to construct six different scenarios that describe possible future climates of the Netherlands. The scenarios make assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, and are based on the outcomes of climate models that simulate the response of the climate to these emissions. The KNMI'23 climate scenarios show that strongly reducing global emissions strongly reduces the expected changes in the climate of the Netherlands. In the scenario in which global emissions continue to rise until 2080, Dutch society will have to adapt to a much stronger increases in heat and precipitation extremes, increased risks of droughts with low river discharge in summer, and increased risk of flooding due to high river discharges in winter. In the coming years the climate scenario data will be used to evaluate what needs to be done to keep the country a safe place for people to live in and to thrive in, under changing climate conditions. Key Points: We present a methodology for the construction of regional climate scenarios using a storyline approach to partition uncertaintyResults from CMIP6 are reconstructed with a GCM‐RCM initial condition ensemble to produce high‐resolution scenario data for end‐usersSix scenario variants cover emission uncertainty (high, moderate, low) and uncertainty in the regional response (dry‐trending, wet‐trending) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well‐known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air‐sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale. Plain Language Summary: A significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) is widely recognized. However, this study found that the correlation between the two was significantly weakened in late winter during 1980–2001 while no such change was detected in early winter. Therefore, this paper will focus on the late winter and discuss the role of NAO spatial structure in the above correlation changes. When the NAO south center is located over the North Atlantic, both observations and the climate models indicate that the corresponding North Atlantic SST shows a significant tripole pattern. However, during 1980–2001, the NAO south center shift significantly eastward from the North Atlantic toward Western Europe (up to 20° longitude). At the same time, the NAO north center expanded eastward significantly. The eastward shift of the NAO results in the significant eastward shift of the turbulent heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Shift in the region of strong air‐sea interaction led to the collapse of NAO‐related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale and also provide implications for subseasonal‐seasonal predictions of Eurasian climate extremes. Key Points: The link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST weakened obviously during 1980–2001 late winter, which was not detected in early winterThe eastward shift of ∼20° longitude in NAO south center forced the strong air‐sea interactions region to shift in observations and CMIP6NAO's spatial shift in late winter caused the changes in the link between NAO and North Atlantic tripole SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over‐estimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a well‐known and persistent problem in most climate models. This study demonstrates the impact of a Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme on rainfall simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. It is found that this scheme in both 0.1° and 0.05° resolutions significantly reduces the wet bias through both local feedbacks and large‐scale dynamic process. Specifically, increased cloud water/ice content with this scheme reduces surface shortwave radiation, and consequently surface heat fluxes and evapotranspiration. This, in turn, dampens the large‐scale thermal effect of the TP and weakens the exaggerated monsoon circulation and low‐level moisture convergence. It is this large‐scale dynamic process that contributes the most (∼70%) to the wet bias reduction. Although this paper presents a modeling study, it highlights the cloud radiative feedback to the large‐scale dynamics and precipitation over the TP. Plain Language Summary: Despite numerous attempts to correct the overestimation of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in current global and regional climate models, the issue persists. This study applies the Gaussian Probability Density Function (GPDF) cloud fraction scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model at two different resolutions (0.1° and 0.05°) during a summer over the TP. The results show that the GPDF scheme significantly mitigates the precipitation overestimation, particularly in the high‐resolution modeling. We explored the physical processes, both local and remote, that contribute to this improvement. Specifically, an increase in cloudiness reduces the amount of radiation reaching the land surface. This decrease in surface radiative heating not only reduces local evaporation but also weakens the thermal effect of the TP. The latter is a major driver of the South Asian monsoon that conveys moisture to the TP, and its weakening reduces moisture convergence over the TP. Both the decreases in local evaporation and remote moisture convergence contribute to the alleviation of the precipitation overestimation, and the latter plays a dominant role. These findings provide a unique perspective for reducing the wet bias over the TP, focusing on the surface available energy and associated remote moisture processes. Key Points: The use of the Gaussian Probability Density Function cloud fraction scheme in high resolution greatly reduces wet bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during summerMore cloud water/ice with the scheme lessens TP's thermal effect, causing a weaker South Asian monsoon and moisture convergenceWet bias reduction is mainly governed by the decrease in remote moisture rather than local evapotranspiration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a data‐driven method to improve rainfall‐runoff models used to generate future water resources scenario in climate change studies. The method, which we have called "Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement" (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to monthly streamflow simulations over a large data set of catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that DAISI improves model performance for a wide range of metrics and increases the sensitivity of the model to climate inputs, which is critical in climate change scenarios. Finally, the improvements identified by DAISI take a simple mathematical form with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the study domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). Several improvements of DAISI are discussed including the inclusion of additional observed variables such as evapotranspiration to better constrain model simulations. Key Points: Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement method diagnoses hydrological model structures by combining data assimilation with a polynomial update of state equationsThe method was applied to the GR2M rainfall‐runoff model with significantly improved streamflow simulations in 201 Australian catchmentsThe method identified updates to state equations with marked regional characteristics that could guide future improvement of GR2M [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes rainfall data to characterize the rainy season and define rice and maize crop calendars for current and future conditions in Madagascar. The daily rainfall data are taken from observational climate records and climate model simulations from the CMIP6 under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Rainy season characteristics are calibrated to fit rice and maize crop growth stages. The comparison between the past (1950–2018) and the future (2030–2100) highlights changes in the onset and cessation dates, which happen later and earlier, respectively. This causes the reduction of the rainy season duration, which affects the rice and maize crop calendars, especially its sowing or seeding periods. The worst (best) case is mainly observed in the southeast (southwest). On the one hand, the southwestern region may need to adapt to grow rice and maize crops with short or medium crop cycles in the future. In the Highland or Central land, the length of the sowing or seeding period increases. On the other hand, the North and East face a significant reduction in the length of the sowing or seeding period. Rice endures more than maize. Growing rice crops twice a year may not be possible in the future. But rather, we observe minor changes in the West. Our analysis suggests the imperative necessity to advise smallholder farmers to rely on short crop cycle varieties of rice and maize crops. Predominantly, the harvesting period is postponed. It is recommended to carefully consider our results for the definition of food policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cloud feedback may result in amplification or damping of Arctic warming. Two common techniques used to diagnose the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere cloud feedback are the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect (AdjCRE) method and the Cloud Radiative Kernel (CRK) method. We apply both to CMIP5 and CMIP6 model data, finding that the AdjCRE calculated Arctic shortwave cloud feedback is twice as correlated with sea ice loss in CMIP5, and four times in CMIP6, as the CRK method. We find that the CRK method produces Arctic all‐sky residual percentages exceeding 20% in 15 of 18 models. We use the CRK method to decompose the feedback in CMIP5 and CMIP6 finding that its median value changed from negative to positive driven by a less‐negative cloud optical depth feedback. Despite its lack of closure, we conclude that the CRK method is better suited for Arctic SW feedbacks as it is less impacted by surface albedo changes. Plain Language Summary: The cloud feedback is the process by which cloud property changes in a warming climate can either further enhance warming or damp it. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, and one of the largest sources of uncertainty in its climate projections is the cloud feedback. There are two popular methods to calculate the cloud feedback: the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect technique, and the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique. In this paper we compare the two methods in a suite of climate models by considering the extent to which changes in Arctic sea ice impact the cloud feedbacks. From this analysis we conclude that the Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less affected by sea ice loss. We then apply the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique to data from the two most recent generations of global climate models to investigate how polar day Arctic cloud feedbacks have changed between these generations. We find that the median value of these Arctic feedbacks is slightly positive in the newest generation of models, a change from slightly negative in the previous generation that is largely fueled by a weakening of the feedback associated with changes in cloud optical depth. Key Points: The Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less sensitive to surface albedo changes than the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect techniqueThe Cloud Radiative Kernel method provides poor radiative closure in a suite of global climate modelsThe median shortwave Arctic cloud feedback in recent climate models is slightly positive due to a weakened cloud optical depth feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding historical soil moisture (SM) variations and their relationship with temperature in high‐latitude humid regions is essential for predicting hot droughts under widespread warming. This paper presents the first‐ever annual‐resolution summer surface SM reconstruction (1736–2006 CE) in Sweden, located in northern Europe (NE). The reconstruction utilizes the paleoclimate proxy, tree‐ring δ18O, which exhibits a strong correlation with reanalysis SM data during 1948–2007 CE (r = −0.67, p < 0.001). In contrast to an unprecedented trend suggested by previous studies, our reconstruction exhibits a wetting trend in NE since the 1960s falling within the historical spectrum of trends. Both reanalysis SM data and our reconstruction show significant negative correlations with temperature at interannual timescales. However, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models failed to capture the significant SM‐temperature relationship during the historical (1850–1947 CE) and observation periods (1948–2006 CE). This proxy‐model comparison represents a critical step toward enhancing our understanding of SM dynamics and the reliability of SM projections in high‐latitude humid regions. Plain Language Summary: Soil moisture (SM) refers to water in any form contained in soils, and it plays an important role in sustaining plant growth and influencing climate dynamics. SM deficits can result in ecological/agricultural droughts. However, our understanding of historical SM changes is limited due to the scarcity of long‐term records. Consequently, modeling historical SM changes proves challenging and prone to inaccuracies. In this study, we utilized a tree‐ring record to reconstruct centuries‐long SM changes in Sweden, located in northern Europe. Our analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between SM and temperature in both our reconstruction and SM data sets. However, state‐of‐art models failed to capture the significant relationship observed at our study site. These findings highlight the need to improve climate models to increase the accuracy of climate forecasts and better understand SM dynamics in high‐latitude humid areas. Key Points: This study presents the first 271‐year historical soil moisture (SM) reconstruction in northern Europe (NE) using the tree‐ring δ18O proxySignificant correlations between historical SM and temperature in NE were observed at interannual timescalesOur results implied that Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models might underestimate the SM‐temperature relationship [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and associated extremes in western continental regions. Recent studies suggest ARs also influence water resources and extremes in continental interiors. AR detection tools indicate that AR conditions are relatively frequent in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The origin of these ARs, whether from synoptic‐scale waves or mesoscale processes, is unclear. This study uses meteorological composite maps and transects of AR conditions during the four seasons. The analysis reveals that ARs east of the Rockies are associated with long‐wave, baroclinic Rossby waves. This result demonstrates that eastern North American ARs are dynamically similar to their western coastal counterparts, though mechanisms for vertical moisture flux differ between the two. These findings provide a foundation for understanding future climate change and ARs in this region and offer new methods for evaluating climate model simulations. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a weather pattern that brings high amounts of atmospheric water and winds in a relatively narrow region. ARs are typically considered a "west coast" phenomenon, largely because the majority of the scientific research on ARs has focused on ARs in western coastal regions: particularly the western United States (US). ARs occur in continental interiors, but there has been some debate about whether these ARs represent the same type of weather as those in western coastal regions. This paper uses two objective methods for identifying ARs and finds times when ARs are present in three locations in the eastern half of the US: Norman, OK, Bloomington, IN, and Washington, DC. Examination of weather conditions during these AR times shows remarkable similarity to conditions associated with west coast ARs. This gives strong evidence that ARs do occur in the eastern half of the US. This result is important because it suggests that ARs may be important for water resources and extreme weather in the eastern half of the US, just as they are in the western US. This result also suggests that ARs may be important for water resources and extremes in other continental interiors. Key Points: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) east of the Rockies are associated with baroclinic wavesWestern coastal ARs and eastern/midwest ARs are dynamically similarSynoptic‐scale uplift, combined with convective instability, provide efficient mechanisms for generating precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of any atmosphere or ocean model warrants a suite of test cases (TCs) to verify its spatial and temporal discretizations, order of accuracy, stability, reproducibility, portability, scalability, etc. In this paper, we present a suite of shallow water TCs designed to verify the barotropic solver of atmosphere and ocean models. These include the non‐dispersive coastal Kelvin wave; the dispersive inertia‐gravity wave; the dispersive planetary and topographic Rossby waves; the barotropic tide; and a non‐linear manufactured solution. These TCs check the implementation of the linear pressure gradient term; the linear constant or variable‐coefficient Coriolis and bathymetry terms; and the non‐linear advection terms. Simulation results are presented for a variety of time‐stepping methods as well as two spatial discretizations: a mimetic finite volume method based on the TRiSK scheme, and a high‐order discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. The experimental procedure for conducting these numerical experiments is detailed. It underscores several key considerations that vary depending on the chosen spatial discretization method. Finally, convergence studies of every TC are conducted with refinement in both space and time, only in space, and only in time. The convergence slopes match the expected theoretical predictions. Plain Language Summary: Before running an atmosphere, ocean, or a coupled climate simulation, every model developer should ensure the correct implementation of each term in the governing equations that drive the models forward in time. This motivates the development of idealized test cases (TCs), each of which verifies a subset of terms in the governing equations with different initial and boundary conditions. Here we present a suite of six TCs for the momentum equation and sea surface height equation for ocean models in a single‐layer configuration. The computed results from the ocean model can be compared to exact solutions. The computed solution always has a small error, but is said to converge to the exact solution with reduction in grid cell size and time step. If the model converges at the expected rate, then we know that it is solving the governing equations correctly. We show results of convergence tests from two models, and share the full specifications of these TCs so that other ocean modelers may reproduce them. Key Points: A suite of test cases is presented for the verification of barotropic dynamics of ocean models, with exact and manufactured solutionsSpecifications are provided for coastal Kelvin wave, inertia‐gravity wave, planetary and topographic Rossby waves, barotropic tide, and non‐linear casesResults are presented for a variety of time‐stepping methods and two types of spatial discretizations: TRiSK and discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reference or "no‐feedback" radiative response to warming is fundamental to understanding how much global warming will occur for a given change in greenhouse gases or solar radiation incident on the Earth. The simplest estimate of this radiative response is given by the Stefan‐Boltzmann law as −4σTe‾3≈−3.8 ${-}4\sigma {\overline{{T}_{e}}}^{3}\approx -3.8$ W m−2 K−1 for Earth's present climate, where Te‾ $\overline{{T}_{e}}$ is a global effective emission temperature. The comparable radiative response in climate models, widely called the "Planck feedback," averages −3.3 W m−2 K−1. This difference of 0.5 W m−2 K−1 is large compared to the uncertainty in the net climate feedback, yet it has not been studied carefully. We use radiative transfer models to analyze these two radiative feedbacks to warming, and find that the difference arises primarily from the lack of stratospheric warming assumed in calculations of the Planck feedback (traditionally justified by differing constraints on and time scales of stratospheric adjustment relative to surface and tropospheric warming). The Planck feedback is thus masked for wavelengths with non‐negligible stratospheric opacity, and this effect implicitly acts to amplify warming in current feedback analysis of climate change. Other differences between Planck and Stefan‐Boltzmann feedbacks arise from temperature‐dependent gas opacities, and several artifacts of nonlinear averaging across wavelengths, heights, and different locations; these effects partly cancel but as a whole slightly destabilize the Planck feedback. Our results point to an important role played by stratospheric opacity in Earth's climate sensitivity, and clarify a long‐overlooked but notable gap in our understanding of Earth's reference radiative response to warming. Plain Language Summary: Earth's climate is stable because a warmer planet loses more energy to space, at infrared wavelengths invisible to the naked eye. The rate of change of this energy loss as the planet warms provides an estimate how Earth's energy balance responds to warming, which is simple enough to write on a small piece of paper. When scientists investigate the warming predicted by climate models, they often start from a similar but not identical calculation of how Earth's energy balance responds to warming. This calculation, based on model output, is about 15% less stabilizing than the simple pencil‐and‐paper estimate. In this paper, we explore the causes of this 15% difference between the pencil‐and‐paper estimate and the calculations using climate models. We show that the difference is primarily caused by the lack of assumed warming in climate models high in Earth's atmosphere, where temperatures are not closely linked to surface warming. This lack of warming acts as a hidden destabilizing feedback in current analysis of climate models. Key Points: Earth's reference radiative response, or "Planck feedback," is ∼0.5 W m−2 K−1 less stabilizing than a Stefan‐Boltzmann estimateWe find this deviation is mostly due to the assumed lack of stratospheric warming in calculations of the Planck feedbackThe lack of stratospheric warming serves as an implicit positive feedback in analysis of climate model warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Green's function approach is well‐established and widely used for modeling the surface mass loading displacements. Global mean Green's functions (MGFs) are commonly applied without considering local variations of the crustal structure. Derived from the modified layered Earth structure, the local Green's functions (LGFs) are theoretically beneficial to generate more accurate deformation, since they consider interior information of the local crust. This paper analyzed the differences among MGFs from Gutenberg–Bullen A model and two sets of LGFs derived from modified PREM Earth models consolidating with two crust models TEA12 and CRUST1.0, hereafter called PREMTEA and PREMCRU, respectively. Utilizing MGFs and two sets of LGFs, we modeled the corresponding 3D atmospheric loading displacements for 984 ITRF2014 stations and compared them with the ITRF2014 residuals. The results show that LGFs from PREMTEA and PREMCRU perform well in further promoting scatter reduction for ∼72%, ∼56%, and ∼85% of stations for the Up, East and North components, respectively. The improvements for the North components are significant (up to 3.6%). In particular, stations in the east coastal areas of North America and the west edge of Greenland exhibit further promoting scatter reduction for the East components (up to ∼2.5%), while those located in west coastline of North America show better performance for the North components. Nevertheless, there are significant anomalies in northern Europe for PREMCRU, the mutation margin of which should be carefully considered when using a resolution higher than 1°. In the area around station MORP (358.31°W, 55.21°N, sited at coastline of Britain), we suggest using PREMTEA model. Plain Language Summary: In any location worldwide, we employ a consistent set of numbers, known as load Green's functions that characterize the elastic properties of the Earth, to model the deformation caused by mass transfer on Earth's surface, which is referred to as surface mass loading effects. Most research and data products adopt same set of global mean Green's functions for any location on Earth, which neglects the differences in elastic properties of various regions of the Earth, leading to modeling errors to some extent. This study aims to optimize the modeling using local load Green's functions, with the objective of obtaining results that are more theoretically valuable. "Local" means that the Green's functions for each site are derived from an Earth model that takes into account the local crustal structure. The modeled atmospheric loading displacements exhibit enhanced alignment with GNSS position time series. This, in turn, further elucidates that deformations can be more attributed to atmospheric loading. Moreover, the model shows improved performance in the horizontal components when compared to the vertical components. Key Points: Local load Green's Functions enable a more precise modeling of loading displacements than global mean Green's FunctionsThe modeled atmospheric loading displacements based on Local Green's Functions can improve scatter reduction of GNSS position time seriesTwo sets of local load Green's Functions, based on CRUST1.0 model and TEA12 model, are compared. We recommend TEA12 for European region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the negatively buoyant air in the cloud downdrafts reaches the surface, it spreads out horizontally, producing cold pools. A cold pool can trigger new convective cells. However, when combined with the ambient vertical wind shear, it can also connect and upscale them into large mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Given the broad spectrum of scales of the atmospheric phenomenon involving the interaction between cold pools and the MCS, a parameterization was designed here. Then, it is coupled with a classical convection parameterization to be applied in an atmospheric model with an insufficient spatial resolution to explicitly resolve convection and the sub‐cloud layer. A new scalar quantity related to the deficit of moist static energy detrained by the downdrafts mass flux is proposed. This quantity is subject to grid‐scale advection, mixing, and a sink term representing dissipation processes. The model is then applied to simulate moist convection development over a large portion of tropical land in the Amazon Basin in a wet and dry‐to‐wet 10‐days period. Our results show that the cold pool edge parameterization improves the organization, longevity, propagation, and severity of simulated MCS over the Amazon and other different continental areas. Plain Language Summary: In nature, cold pools are formed by cold air masses descending from the low to mid‐troposphere in thunderstorms. When these drafts reach the surface, they spread out horizontally. A manifestation of cold pools is the relatively high speed at the gust front, which can lift environmental air producing new convective cells. Moreover, depending on ambient conditions, the cold pools may help organize the new convective cells, increasing their aggregation and forming the so‐called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). MCSs, which cover hundreds to thousands of km2, significantly impact the global scale circulation, energy budget, hydrological cycle, and population safety. Forecasting MCSs is challenging for global circulation models (GCM) due to the broad spectrum of scales of the involved atmospheric phenomenon. The computational limitations, at present and for some time to come, do not allow running in real‐time GCMs, which explicitly solves all relevant scales of motion. This paper describes a methodology to account for essential interplays between cold pools edges and moist convection to be applied in the GCMs of weather and climate forecasting. We show that the method improves the model simulation of the main types of MCSs over the Amazon Basin and other continental areas. Key Points: A model scheme for including effect of cold pools edges in triggering new convective cells and storm propagation is presentedThe scheme is coupled with a convection parameterization and applied in the modeling of moist convective systemsThe method improves the organization, longevity, propagation, and severity of the simulated mesoscale convective systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi‐scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two‐scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect‐model setting, we explore in detail how several built‐in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non‐uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research. Plain Language Summary: Climate models are computer simulation codes that incorporate centuries of human knowledge of the physics of planet Earth. They are used to understand the past, the present and make projections about the future of our climate. To validate a climate model, scientists tune a number of its parameters so that it yields a simulated climate resembling real‐life observations as much as possible. The main challenge in this tuning task is the extreme cost of climate models which limits a lot the number of tuning experiments scientists can run. In this paper we are interested in a technique that uses artificial intelligence in order to replace the expensive climate model with a cheaper surrogate. We experiment on a simplified model to assess the strengths and weaknesses of this semi‐automatic technique, and show that it can be more efficient when combined with human expertise. Key Points: The History Matching method is explained in detail then used for tuning a toy coupled model: the Lorenz 96 modelThe importance of several design choices is demonstrated, especially when considering forced experiments such as Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Protocol and Ocean Model Intercomparison ProjectWe argue that this tuning method is semi‐automatic & highlight the importance of human expertise when considering it for real coupled models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is shown that a recently developed hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) can serve as a basis for capturing atmospheric processes not captured by the AGCM. This power of the approach is illustrated by three examples from a decades‐long climate simulation experiment. The first example demonstrates that the hybrid model can produce sudden stratospheric warming, a dynamical process of nature not resolved by the low resolution AGCM component of the hybrid model. The second and third example show that introducing 6‐hr cumulative precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) as ML‐based prognostic variables improves the precipitation climatology and leads to a realistic ENSO signal in the SST and atmospheric surface pressure. Plain Language Summary: This paper introduces and tests schemes for efficiently enabling significant expansion of the utility and scope of a recently introduced hybrid modeling technique that combines machine learning with an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). Simulation experiments are carried out with an implementation of the approach on a low resolution simplified AGCM. An examination of the simulated atmospheric circulation suggests that the hybrid model can capture dynamical process not captured by the AGCM. Moreover, the addition of precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) as machine learning predicted physical quantities to the model improves the precipitation climatology and leads to a realistic El Niño‐La Niña signal in the SST and atmospheric surface pressure. Key Points: A hybrid system combining an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) with a machine‐learning component can capture processes not captured by the AGCMMachine learning provides a flexible framework to introduce additional prognostic variables into the hybrid modelThe prototype hybrid model tested in the paper is stable and has a realistic climate in decades‐long simulation experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy‐driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Plain Language Summary: Climate models have the capability to predict the evolution of mean atmospheric circulation over long timescales, from annual to decadal and longer. However, models are overestimating the chaotic, unpredictable component of the climate's variability and, although model predictions follow the observed oscillations of the climate, the strength of these oscillations is critically underestimated. While climate models have demonstrated skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), this paper assesses model skill in predicting the evolution of the wintertime North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet, with the aim to highlight how much of the predictive skill of the NAO is derived from accurate predictions of the jet's state. We find levels of skill similar to that for the NAO, with slightly higher skill for the jet's strength (speed) over its location (latitude of maximum speed). We also notice a drop in skill over the last decade, as models fail to capture the latest trends in the NAO and jet's evolution, and suggest that it might be related to degradation in skill at predicting surface temperature variability. Key Points: The winter North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet is predictable on decadal time‐scales with skill in jet speed comparable to that for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)Anomalies in the jet are substantially smaller than expected from skill alone and so suffer from noise overestimationSkill drops significantly in the last decade, as hindcasts do not capture the return to positive NAO conditions post‐2010 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes a testbed for evaluating model performance on a particular high‐impact weather event—the June 2012 North American derecho, a storm event associated with extreme winds and precipitation. The testbed is applied to evaluate the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at resolutions that resolve cloud systems. The performance of both models is shown to be sensitive to the data set used for model initialization. Finer grid resolution generally leads to better model performance. All simulations show a 2‐hr delay in predicting the evolution of the derecho and produce more intense rainfall. SCREAM generates a more realistic convective front than WRF and produces stronger surface winds. The evaluation protocol can be used to better understand the credibility of model simulations of extreme events and guide model development. Key Points: A testbed of observational products, diagnostics, and metrics is constructed to evaluate hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derechoHindcast results are sensitive to initial conditions, initialization time, horizontal resolutions, and convective and microphysics schemesThe Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model at 1.625 km successfully reproduces severe surface gusts with wind speeds above 30 m/s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of global transport models to go up in resolution becomes discriminating for greenhouse gas atmospheric inversions. This paper describes the porting on Graphics Processing Units of the global transport model currently used in the European operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) for CO2 and N2O inversions. It represents an important milestone to achieve sub‐degree resolution. The code includes not only the direct model but also its tangent‐linear and its adjoint versions which are needed in variational inversions. Tests were carried out for CO2 at a resolution of 2.50° in longitude, 1.27° in latitude and 79 layers in the vertical, corresponding to 1,626,768 3D cells, 4.5 times more than the current standard resolution of the model used in the CAMS reanalyzes. A month's worth of computation of the tangent‐linear and of the adjoint versions now takes 2.5 min, including 50 s for reading meteorological data. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric transport models are intensively used to infer global greenhouse gas emissions and removals, from atmospheric measurements: a single global analysis involves repeated and long transport simulations. This intensive use has limited the spatial resolution of such analyses despite an increasing need for national greenhouse gas budgets, despite an increasing number of corresponding space‐based observations at kilometer resolution, and despite an increasing number of high‐quality surface measurements made in sites marked by strong local influences. For the global transport model currently used in the European operational atmosphere monitoring service, our objective within the next 5 years is to make it reach a resolution of about 50 km over the whole globe. This paper describes an important milestone in this direction with the porting of this transport model on hardware components initially developed for video display but now used for high performance computing. Tests were carried out at a resolution of 2.50° in longitude, 1.27° in latitude and 79 layers in the vertical, corresponding to 4.5 times more 3D cells than the current standard resolution of the model. The direct model itself now takes less time than reading the input meteorological data. Key Points: The workload in a Eulerian transport model on a longitude‐latitude grid can be embarrassingly parallel enough to run efficiently on a Graphics Processing UnitThe transport model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique was run in a new grid of 1,626,768 3D cellsThe calculation time in the direct version of the model is now less than the time to read the input meteorological data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical weather prediction is pushing the envelope of grid resolution at local and global scales alike. Aiming to model topography with higher precision, a handful of articles introduced unstructured vertical grids and tested them for dry atmospheres. The next step toward effective high‐resolution unstructured grids for atmospheric modeling requires that also microphysics is independent of any vertical columns, in contrast to what is ubiquitous across operational and research models. In this paper, we present a non‐column based continuous and discontinuous spectral element implementation of Kessler's microphysics with warm rain. We test the proposed algorithm against standard three‐dimensional benchmarks for precipitating clouds and show that the results are comparable with those presented in the literature across all of the tested effective resolutions. While presented for both continuous and discontinuous spectral elements in this paper, the method that we propose can be adapted to any numerical method used in other codes, as long as the code can already handle vertically unstructured grids. Plain Language Summary: The earth climate is warming faster than ever. While climate models are the tool available to scientists to forecast its future evolution, they are biased by uncertainties that are, arguably, mostly embedded in the modeling of clouds. Thanks to the advent of exascale computing, a reduction of cloud modeling uncertainties can be expected by simulating clouds at higher and higher resolutions. While uniform high resolution across the whole domain is ideal, for computational efficiency reasons scientists are likely to increase the model resolution in some regions more than others not only in the horizontal direction—which is a standard approach—but also along the vertical direction. Grid refinement in the vertical direction, however, may lead to the loss of the vertical structure of the grid columns, affecting the usability of column‐based physics packages that are used to model clouds and precipitation. To overcome this problem, we present an algorithm to solve the equations that model precipitating clouds along arbitrarily shaped grids in any spatial direction. This approach is advantageous from a modeling perspective as well as from a computational one because it allows full flexibility of the domain partitioning algorithms when hundreds of thousands of parallel processors are used. Key Points: A non‐column based spectral element approach to model precipitating clouds is presentedThe approach can be easily applied to any microphysics scheme with and without precipitationThis approach will make full physics simulations of the atmosphere on unstructured grids possible [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We synthesise the findings from 10 years of ecological restoration in the Midlands of Tasmania, Australia, captured in the series of 14 papers in this special issue of Ecological Management and Restoration. The papers illustrate how expertise from disciplines as diverse as law, economics, social sciences, the arts, education, zoology, botany, genetics, climate modelling, agriculture, spatial sciences and fire ecology are necessary to address the complex social, ecological and financial questions that underpin restoration ecology. We highlight the complexity of the task, the multi‐disciplinary and collaborative approach needed, the importance of science to inform restoration practice and the problem of achieving functional connectivity. We also outline steps that need to be taken in the next 10 years. Together, the outcomes and recommendations from these studies provide a template for restoration in similar highly cleared and degraded agricultural landscapes affected by climate change in Australia and internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model‐circulation increment‐based dynamic statistical technique (MIDST) is proposed in this paper to improve the prediction of summer rainfall over southern China (SC) where quite low prediction skills have been found in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a moderate resolution (BCC_CSM1.1m). The results show that BCC_CSM1.1m can hardly represent the variability of the summer rainfall anomaly and its year‐to‐year increment over SC, and the skillful predictions are mostly confined over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Using the dynamic model output and statistical method, the MIDST is established to capture the coupled modes between the year‐to‐year increments of the summer rainfall anomaly and the associated simultaneous three‐dimensional coupled air‐sea circulation predictors. The cross‐validation indicates that the prediction skills of the MIDST are evidently improved for both the summer rainfall increment prediction and summer rainfall anomaly prediction compared with the direct BCC_CSM1.1m prediction. The skillful prediction can persist for long forecast leads over most regions except southwestern China. As the major predictability source of seasonal prediction, the intense response to changes in the circulation related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well captured, and thus, the performance improvement of the MIDST is primarily due to its more realistic representation of the incremental circulation related to the ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mass‐conserving method to downscale precipitation from global climate models (GCMs) using sub‐grid‐scale topography and modeled 700‐mb wind direction is presented. Runoff is simulated using a stand‐alone hydrological model, with this and several other methods as inputs, and compared to runoff simulated using historical observations over the western contiguous United States. Results suggest the mitigation of grid‐scale biases is more critical than downscaling for some regions with large wet biases (e.g., the Great Basin and Upper Colorado). In other regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest) the new method produces more realistic sub‐grid‐scale variability in runoff compared to unadjusted GCM output and a simpler downscaling method. The presented method also brings the runoff centroid timing closer to that simulated with observations for all subregions examined. Plain Language Summary: Due to limitations in computing power which necessitates coarse spatial resolution, climate models do not include many details on mountains and their impact on precipitation. For this reason, it is difficult to estimate the impact of climate change on the availability of water for human consumption in places like the western United States, where mountain snowpack is an important source of water. This paper presents a way to adjust precipitation estimates from climate models by using some simple statistics about nearby mountains and valleys. The adjusted precipitation is then used in a hydrologic model to calculate the runoff that is simulated with different precipitation inputs. Results show that in most cases, the precipitation adjustment improves estimates of the resultant runoff relative to simulations with observed precipitation. The main exceptions are in very dry areas where the climate model produces far too much precipitation. With further work, the proposed adjustment may be integrated into the climate model itself to make it easier for those managing water resources (e.g., controlling reservoir levels) to use the model output to plan and adapt to climate change. Key Points: A mass‐conserving method for downscaling orographic precipitation improves modeled runoff from the CESM2Considering upwind topography further improves modeled runoff compared to simpler adjustmentsNot tuning to individual model grid points makes this method more generalizable than many existing statistical downscaling methods [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present the CMIP6 version of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for the historical period and five emission scenarios. The power of MPI‐GE CMIP6 goes beyond its predecessor ensemble MPI‐GE by providing high‐frequency output, the full range of emission scenarios including the highly policy‐relevant low emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6, and the opportunity to compare the ensemble to complementary high‐resolution simulations. First, we describe MPI‐GE CMIP6, evaluate it with observations and reanalyzes and compare it to MPI‐GE. Then, we demonstrate with six application examples how to use the power of the ensemble to better quantify and understand present and future climate extremes, to inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement global warming limits, and to combine large ensembles and artificial intelligence. For instance, MPI‐GE CMIP6 allows us to show that the recently observed Siberian and Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1–2 years return periods in 2071–2100 with low emission scenarios, that recently observed European precipitation extremes are captured only by complementary high‐resolution simulations, and that 3‐hourly output projects a decreasing activity of storms in mid‐latitude oceans. Further, the ensemble is ideal for estimates of probabilities of crossing global warming limits and the irreducible uncertainty introduced by internal variability, and is sufficiently large to be used for infilling surface temperature observations with artificial intelligence. Plain Language Summary: Climate model simulations that start from different initial states and differ only due to the chaos in the climate system are used extensively to quantify the forced climate response, variability intrinsic to the climate system, and their change under global warming. Here, we present a new version of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) that is run as part of the latest generation of climate models. This single‐model ensemble currently consists of 30 realizations for the historical period 1850–2014 and for five scenarios of possible future climates until 2100. The power of MPI‐GE CMIP6 goes beyond its predecessor by not only providing monthly mean but also 3‐hourly to daily model output, the full range of future scenarios including the two highly policy‐relevant scenarios that were designed to match the Paris Agreement global warming limits of 1.5 and 2°C, and the opportunity to compare the low‐resolution ensemble to simulations of the same model version with higher horizontal resolution. In this paper, we describe the new ensemble and demonstrate with application examples how to use its power. Key Points: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble in its CMIP6 version (MPI‐GE CMIP6) is a 30‐member initial‐condition large ensemble with up to 3‐hourly model output and five emission scenariosThe ensemble is specifically suited to investigate climate extremes and Paris Agreement global warming limitsMPI‐GE CMIP6 adequately represents heat extremes, while precipitation extremes are captured by complementary high‐resolution simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds, especially low clouds, are crucial for regulating Earth's energy balance and mediating the response of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Despite their importance for climate, they remain relatively poorly understood and are inaccurately represented in climate models. A principal reason is that the high computational expense of simulating them with large‐eddy simulations (LES) has inhibited broad and systematic numerical experimentation and the generation of large data sets for training parametrization schemes for climate models. Here we demonstrate LES of low clouds on tensor processing units (TPUs), application‐specific integrated circuits that were originally developed for machine learning applications. We show that TPUs in conjunction with tailored software implementations can be used to simulate computationally challenging stratocumulus clouds in conditions observed during the Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus (DYCOMS) field study. The TPU‐based LES code successfully reproduces clouds during DYCOMS and opens up the large computational resources available on TPUs to cloud simulations. The code enables unprecedented weak and strong scaling of LES, making it possible, for example, to simulate stratocumulus with 10× speedup over real‐time evolution in domains with a 34.7 km × 53.8 km horizontal cross section. The results open up new avenues for computational experiments and for substantially enlarging the sample of LES available to train parameterizations of low clouds. Plain Language Summary: The study of clouds has been impeded by, among other factors, limitations in our ability to simulate them rapidly and on sufficiently large domains. In particular, computational limitations in simulating low clouds are among the reasons for the difficulties of representing them accurately in climate models; this is one of the dominant uncertainties in climate predictions. This paper demonstrates how the large computing power available on tensor processing units (TPUs) (integrated circuits originally designed for machine learning applications) can be harnessed for simulating low clouds. We demonstrate the largest simulations of low clouds to date, with hundreds of billions of variables, and we document their fidelity to aircraft observations. The results open up the large computational resources available on TPUs, hitherto primarily used for machine learning, to the study of clouds in the climate system. Key Points: We introduce a large‐eddy simulation (LES) framework that runs on tensor processing units (TPUs, accelerators designed for machine learning)The fidelity of the LES is established by reproducing aircraft observations of nocturnal stratocumulus clouds over the PacificThe LES exhibit unprecedented scalability on TPUs, enabling the large‐scale generation of training data for cloud parameterizations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An idealized aquaplanet moist global atmospheric model with realistic radiative transfer but no clouds and no convective parameterization is found to possess multiple climate equilibria. When forced symmetrically about the equator, in some cases the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates to an off‐equatorial equilibrium position. Mechanism denial experiments prescribing relative humidity imply that radiation‐circulation coupling is essential to this instability. The cross‐equatorial asymmetry occurs only when the underlying slab ocean is sufficiently deep and the atmosphere's spectral dynamical core is sufficiently coarse (∼T170 or less with our control parameters). At higher resolutions, initializing with an asymmetric state indicates metastability with very slow (thousands of days) return to hemispheric symmetry. There is some sensitivity to the model timestep, which affects the time required to transition to the asymmetric state, with little effect on the equilibrium climate. The instability is enhanced when the planetary boundary layer scheme favors deeper layers or by a prescribed meridional heat transport away from the equator within the slab. The instability is not present when the model is run with a convective parameterization scheme commonly utilized in idealized moist models. We argue that the instability occurs when the asymmetric heating associated with a spontaneous ITCZ shift drives a circulation that rises poleward of the perturbed ITCZ. These results serve as a warning of the potential for instability and non‐uniqueness of climate that may complicate studies with idealized models of the tropical response to perturbations in forcing. Plain Language Summary: Much of the rainfall in the tropics occurs in the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs). These regions are associated with the convergence of surface winds, which produces the rising air required to feed the Hadley cells. The ITCZ location is known to be determined by the spatial distribution of atmospheric heating as the Hadley cells act to erase thermal imbalance within the tropics. With hemispherically symmetric heating, a symmetric equatorial ITCZ is expected. However, it is shown in this paper that changes in the ITCZ location affect the distribution of the radiative cooling of the atmosphere through changes in the water vapor distribution, which may make the equatorial ITCZ unstable under some circumstances. In this situation, two alternative climates with the ITCZ shifted into either one of the hemispheres exist. This instability may play an important role for understanding the distribution of tropical precipitation and the potential for the existence of multiple climates for the same set of external conditions. Key Points: The equatorial ITCZ can be destabilized by radiation‐circulation coupling in a hemispherically symmetric aquaplanet modelAs the ITCZ drifts off the equator two different asymmetric equilibria may exist under symmetric forcing and boundary conditionsA theory is proposed based on the energy flux equator sensitivity to the perturbed asymmetric heating when the ITCZ moves off the equator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameterization of mesoscale eddies in coarse resolution ocean models is necessary to include the effect of eddies on the large‐scale oceanic circulation. We propose to use a multiple‐scale Quasi‐Geostrophic (MSQG) model to capture the eddy dynamics that develop in response to a prescribed large‐scale flow. The MSQG model consists in extending the traditional quasi geostrophic (QG) dynamics to include the effects of a variable Coriolis parameter and variable background stratification. Solutions to this MSQG equation are computed numerically and compared to a full primitive equation model. The large‐scale flow field permits baroclinically unstable QG waves to grow. These instabilities saturate due to non‐linearities and a filtering method is applied to remove large‐scale structures that develop due to the upscale cascade. The resulting eddy field represents a dynamically consistent response to the prescribed background flow, and can be used to rectify the large‐scale dynamics. Comparisons between Gent‐McWilliams eddy parameterization and the present solutions show large regions of agreement, while also indicating areas where the eddies feed back onto the large scale in a manner that the Gent‐McWilliams parameterization cannot capture. Also of interest is the time variability of the eddy feedback which can be used to build stochastic eddy parameterizations. Plain Language Summary: Climate models are running at horizontal spatial resolutions that capture only the basin‐scale dynamics. This is a strong limitation because the missing mesoscale eddies have a non‐negligible impact on the large‐scale flow. The problem of including the effect of eddies in climate models is a long standing issue in the ocean modeling community. In this work, we decompose the ocean dynamics into stationary large‐scale dynamics and turbulent small‐scale dynamics. One can thus write a system of equations for the large‐scale dynamics—which can be interpreted as the ocean dynamics given by climate models—and another system of equations for the small‐scale dynamics. The numerical implementation of this model reveals that this reduced system of equations faithfully reproduces the dynamics of a high resolution ocean model. This paper is a first step that will eventually guide us to use this model as a parameterization of unresolved scales in low resolution ocean models. Key Points: We implement a numerical version of a multiple‐scale Quasi‐Geostrophic (MSQG) modelMultiple Scale Quasi Geostrophy allows for variable stratification and variable Coriolis parameterThe MSQG model reproduces the dynamics of a high resolution primitive equation model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluated and compared the performance of a statistical downscaling method and a dynamical downscaling method to simulate the spatial–temporal rainfall distribution. Outputs from RegCM4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the CanESM2 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) were selected for the data scarce Gwadar‐Ormara basin, Pakistan. The evaluation was based on the climatological average and standard deviation for historic (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The performance evaluation showed that statistical downscaling is preferred to simulate and project rainfall patterns in the study area. Additionally, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) showed low R2 values in calibration and validation of the simulations with respect to observed data for the historic period. Overall, SDSM generated satisfactory results in simulating the monthly rainfall cycle of the entire basin. In this study, RegCM4 showed large rainfall errors and missed one rainfall season in the historic period. This study also explored whether the grid‐based rainfall time series of the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Daily Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset could be used to enlarge and complement the sample of in situ observed rainfall time series. A spatial correlogram was used for observed and APHRODITE rainfall data to assess the consistency between the two data sources, which resulted in rejecting APHRODITE data. For the future time period (2041–2070) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, rainfall projections did not show significant difference for both downscaling approaches. This may relate to the driving model (CanESM2 AOGCM) and not necessarily suggests poor performance of downscaling; either statistical or dynamical. Hence, the study recommends evaluating a multi‐model ensemble including other GCMs and RCMs for the same area of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important components of an atmospheric radiation scheme is its treatment of gas optical properties, which determines not only the accuracy of its radiative forcing calculations fundamental to climate prediction, but also its computational cost. This paper describes a free software tool "ecCKD" for generating fast gas‐optics models by optimally dividing the spectrum into pseudo‐monochromatic spectral intervals (known as k‐terms) according to a user‐specified error tolerance and the range of greenhouse‐gas concentrations that needs to be simulated. The models generated use the correlated k‐distribution method in user‐specified bands, but can also generate accurate "full‐spectrum correlated‐k" models that operate on the entire longwave or near‐infrared (NIR) parts of the spectrum. In the NIR, the large spectral variation in cloud absorption is represented by partitioning the parts of the spectrum where gases are optically thin into 2–6 sub‐bands, while allowing k‐terms for the optically thicker parts of the spectrum (where clouds and surface reflectance are less important) to span the entire NIR spectrum. Candidate models using only 16 and 32 k‐terms in each of the shortwave and longwave are evaluated against line‐by‐line calculations on clear and cloudy profiles. The 32‐term models are able to accurately capture the radiative forcing of varying greenhouse gases including CO2 concentrations spanning a factor of 12, and heating rates at pressures down to 1 Pa. Plain Language Summary: A crucial component of atmospheric computer models used to make climate projections and weather forecasts is the "gas optics scheme," which represents the interaction of sunlight and infrared radiation with greenhouse gases. This paper describes a free software tool "ecCKD" that uses a number of novel techniques to generate new gas optics schemes that are computationally faster than most existing schemes while still being very accurate. For example, the schemes are able to simulate variations in carbon dioxide concentration spanning a factor of 12 and methane concentration spanning a factor of 10. Users of ecCKD can generate schemes that are optimized for specific applications, such as short‐term weather forecasting or simulating past climates. A special focus has been placed on the near‐infrared part of the solar spectrum to ensure that the schemes work well when computing the interactions of sunlight simultaneously with gases and clouds, important to ensure that the impact of clouds on weather and climate is well simulated. Key Points: We describe a free software tool for generating accurate gas optics models for radiation schemes and test with line‐by‐line calculationsExtra efficiency is achieved via the use of the full‐spectrum correlated‐k method in the thermal‐ and near‐infrared (NIR)The spectral properties of clouds are treated accurately via the use of sub‐bands in the NIR and several other techniques [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5‐8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments. Plain Language Summary: Climate model simulations are increasingly used to understand future trends in the severity and frequency of impactful climate hazards and associated physical and socioeconomic risks. Such simulations describe physical climate change in response to scenarios of greenhouse gases and land use change. However, the scenarios most widely used today as the basis for adaptation planning have no assigned probabilities; rather, they are explicitly intended to span a range of arbitrary climate futures. This reduces the applicability of resulting hazards projections for cost/benefit analysis of adaptation investments. To support risk‐based adaptation decision‐making, this study analyzes five sets of probabilistic carbon dioxide emissions simulated by four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 climate model ensemble results, to estimate the probability of future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios. The results of the five IAMs simulations collated in this work vary, and although they might not be representative of the wider literature, most of them suggest that the high‐emission scenario SSP5‐8.5 becomes unlikely as we reach the second half of the century. Based on lessons learned in this exercise, we propose that new sets of IAM and climate model experiments be jointly designed to better support probabilistic climate change risk assessments. Key Points: Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) simulations of future carbon dioxide emissions are used to evaluate the relative probability of greenhouse gases concentration scenariosJoint coordinated IAM and climate modeling experiments should be designed to enable probabilistic climate change risk assessments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Semi‐implicit (SI) time‐stepping schemes for atmosphere and ocean models require elliptic solvers that work efficiently on modern supercomputers. This paper reports our study of the potential computational savings when using mixed precision arithmetic in the elliptic solvers. Precision levels as low as half (16 bits) are used and a detailed evaluation of the impact of reduced precision on the solver convergence and the solution quality is performed. This study is conducted in the context of a novel SI shallow‐water model on the sphere, purposely designed to mimic numerical intricacies of modern all‐scale weather and climate (W&C) models. The governing algorithm of the shallow‐water model is based on the non‐oscillatory MPDATA methods for geophysical flows, whereas the resulting elliptic problem employs a strongly preconditioned non‐symmetric Krylov‐subspace Generalized Conjugated‐Residual (GCR) solver, proven in advanced atmospheric applications. The classical longitude/latitude grid is deliberately chosen to retain the stiffness of global W&C models. The analysis of the precision reduction is done on a software level, using an emulator, whereas the performance is measured on actual reduced precision hardware. The reduced‐precision experiments are conducted for established dynamical‐core test‐cases, like the Rossby‐Haurwitz wavenumber 4 and a zonal orographic flow. The study shows that selected key components of the elliptic solver, most prominently the preconditioning and the application of the linear operator, can be performed at the level of half precision. For these components, the use of half precision is found to yield a speed‐up of a factor 4 compared to double precision for a wide range of problem sizes. Plain Language Summary: Numerical models of the Earth system are very important to predict weather and climate (W&C). The models are computationally expensive and run on supercomputers. If the models are enabled to run faster, model simulations can be enhanced—for example, via a higher resolution—and the accuracy of predictions can be improved. One way to enable the models to run faster is via the use of very low numerical precision. For example, via the use of so‐called half precision which is representing all variables of the simulation with only 16 bits, instead of the default value of 64 bits, reducing computational time by up to a factor of four. In this paper, we investigate whether numerical precision can be reduced down to half precision for parts of the linear solvers which are used in some W&C models. Linear solvers help to progress the model state in time and are responsible for a large fraction of the overall computational cost of model simulations. Key Points: A detailed study of mixed‐precision for linear solvers for weather and climate models is performed, including half precision with 16 bitsPrecision can be reduced in important parts of the solver but a naive approach to reduce precision everywhere does not workCompute time can be reduced by a factor four compared to double precision for parts that work in half precision [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process‐scale development, evaluation, and calibration of physically based parameterizations of clouds and radiation are powerful levers for improving weather and climate models. In a series of papers, we propose a strategy for process‐based calibration of climate models that uses machine learning techniques. It relies on systematic comparisons of single‐column versions of climate models with explicit simulations of boundary‐layer dynamics and clouds (Large‐Eddy Simulations [LES]). This paper focuses on the calibration of cloud geometry parameters (vertical overlap, horizontal heterogeneity, and cloud size) that appear in the parameterization of radiation. The solar component of a radiative transfer (RT) scheme that includes a parameterization for 3D radiative effects of clouds (SPARTACUS) is run in offline single‐column mode on an ensemble of input cloud profiles synthesized from LES outputs. The space of cloud geometry parameter values is efficiently explored by sampling a large number of parameter sets (configurations) from which radiative metrics are computed using fast surrogate models that emulate the SPARTACUS solver. The sampled configurations are evaluated by comparing these radiative metrics to reference values provided by a 3D RT Monte Carlo model. The best calibrated configurations yield better predictions of TOA and surface fluxes than the one that uses parameter values computed from the 3D cloud fields: The root‐mean‐square errors averaged over cumulus cloud fields and solar angles are reduced from ∼10 Wm−2 with LES‐derived parameters to ∼5 Wm−2 with adjusted parameters. However, the calibration of cloud geometry fails to reduce the errors on absorption, which remain around 2–4 Wm−2. Plain Language Summary: A way to improve the accuracy of climate models is to improve the physical formulations that represent the effects of small‐scale processes on the evolution of atmospheric state. Processes that involve clouds and radiation are particularly important due to their key role on climate. Choosing values for the parameters inherent to these formulations is a difficult task. This series of papers presents a rigorous strategy for calibrating models. It is based on comparisons between high‐resolution models that accurately represent clouds and single‐column versions of a climate model, on the basis of process‐oriented metrics such as cloud height. A set of acceptable parameters is efficiently found using machine learning techniques. In this third part, the parameters that control the radiative effects of cloud geometry are calibrated. A recent radiation model that includes realistic representation of the radiative effect of cloud heterogeneity, cloud vertical structure and cloud size is evaluated and calibrated using references that are provided by a ray‐tracing algorithm that tracks virtual photons in virtual cloud fields produced by high‐resolution models (Large‐Eddy Simulations [LES]). Calibration improves the model with respect to using parameters diagnosed in the LES. Good agreement is found only when interception of sunlight by cloud sides is represented. Key Points: A novel calibration approach is applied to an offline radiation scheme to disentangle sources of uncertainty in cloud radiative effectsThe SPARTACUS solver is run on cloud profiles derived from Large‐Eddy Simulations (LES) cumulus fields and compared to Monte Carlo 3D radiative transfer computationsAdjusting SPARTACUS cloud geometry parameters provides effective values that improve surface and TOA fluxes compared to LES‐derived values [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is difficult for coarse‐resolution global models of the atmosphere to accurately simulate the observed distribution of low clouds. In particular, it is difficult for moist turbulence closure models to simulate sufficiently bright near‐coastal stratocumulus (Sc) without simulating overly bright marine shallow cumuli (Cu). To parameterize bright Sc, a turbulence parameterization must damp the turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture above cloud top in order to prevent excessive entrainment of dry air into cloud top. To parameterize dim shallow Cu, the subgrid variances of temperature and moisture must remain large, in order to permit partial cloudiness. However, damping the fluxes but not the variances just above cloud top is difficult if a parameterization uses a single "master" time scale to damp both. In nature, the above‐cloud fluxes are damped by pressure fluctuations, whereas scalar variances are damped by a different process, namely, turbulent dissipation. In a stably stratified inversion above cloud, pressure damping is large but turbulent dissipation is small. To avoid this problem, a multitime scale parameterization for damping has been developed. The damping parameterization has been implemented in a global model and evaluated. The parameterization is capable of dimming shallow Cu while producing adequately bright Sc. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes an assumption in turbulence modeling that is known to be questionable but is still sometimes made. To avoid making this assumption, the formulation of a particular turbulence model is generalized. The generalized formulation, when implemented in a global model of the atmosphere, changes the pattern of low‐altitude clouds. Key Points: Some turbulence parameterizations use a single master turbulence length/time scale even though this assumption is an oversimplificationThis paper parameterizes turbulence by use of multiple turbulent time scales, including one for dissipation and another for pressureUse of the new multiscale parameterization in a global model significantly alters the distribution of stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new version of the stochastic multiplume Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eddy‐Diffusivity/Mass‐Flux (JPL‐EDMF) parameterization which consistently couples the simplified Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0229:ANCPPI>2.0.CO;2, warm phase cloud microphysical parameterization with the parameterization of cloud macrophysical and subgrid scale dynamical processes is described. The new parameterization combines the EDMF approach with an assumed shape of a joint probability density function of thermodynamic and kinematic variables which provide the basis for the computation of all parameterized processes. As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to consistently couple all of these parameterized processes in the EDMF framework. This paper is part one of a two paper series. Here, the JPL‐EDMF parameterization is described and benchmark simulations of precipitating stratocumulus and cumulus convection are performed in a single‐column‐model framework. The parameterization results compare favorably to the reference large‐eddy‐simulation results. In the second part (Smalley et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002729) the JPL‐EDMF parameterization is validated for a wide range of observation‐based scenarios covering the continuous transition from subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus convection derived from global reanalysis, and parameterization uncertainties are studied in detail. Plain Language Summary: Parameterizations are components of atmospheric models that represent the impact of unresolved processes on the resolved scale flow and are crucial for shaping simulated dynamics and thermodynamics. In many atmospheric models, multiple parameterizations are used in parallel and each of them represents subgrid processes only in part, or only for a certain atmospheric regime. Recent parameterization developments focus on unified approaches which represent key unresolved processes in a mathematically consistent framework that allows to capture important interactions among unresolved processes, which is hard to achieve with modularized approaches. We describe a new unified parameterization which represents subgrid‐scale dynamical, cloud and rain processes, thus removing key shortcomings of traditional parameterizations. In this new parameterization, the subgrid‐scale dynamical processes are represented by the stochastic multiplume Eddy‐Diffusivity/Mass‐Flux framework from our previous works. Cloud and rain processes are represented by well‐known parameterizations developed for high‐resolution models. The key features of the new parameterization are a set of consistent assumptions about subgrid variability which is used to evaluate grid mean rates of these three processes, and representation of interactions between them. Our new parameterization is tested against benchmark simulations of marine stratocumulus and cumulus convection and the results compare favorably to the reference large‐eddy‐simulation results. Key Points: We describe a novel unified parameterization that represents interactive subgrid scale dynamical and warm cloud and rain processesThe new parameterization is based on a stochastic multiplume Eddy‐Diffusivity/Mass‐Flux approachThe parameterization successfully reproduces benchmark cases of precipitating marine cumulus and stratocumulus convection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall over West Africa has increased in recent years with serious socio‐economic consequences. Therefore, the need to utilize numerical weather prediction models to forecast heavy rainfall events reliably is also rising at many operational meteorological centres in West Africa. This paper evaluates the performance of the Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO) model of the German Meteorological Services (DWD) in predicting rainfall over West Africa for high‐impact rainfall events that occurred between 19 and 26 August 2017. The paper aims to investigate the synoptic forcings modulating daily rainfall variability during that period. Results show that COSMO simulates adequately the spatio‐temporal variability of rainfall distribution over West Africa, though with inherent biases. COSMO displays a decreasing skill in producing spatial rainfall distribution as rainfall amounts tend to 30 mm and above. Additionally, areas of heavy rainfall, mostly about 100–300 km southwest of the core of the Africa Easterly Jet (AEJ), often coincide with areas of decreasing mean sea level pressure of at least 0.6 hPa and areas of increasing convective available potential energy of at least 500 J/kg. Although not in all cases, the trough of the Africa Easterly Wave (AEW) is always located to the east of these areas. We show that not every storm, especially east of the prime meridian, is associated with an AEW trough. COSMO is able to reproduce the atmospheric dynamics modulating the daily rainfall variability, in addition to capturing the daily propagation of the AEW trough, and the core of the AEJ. However, the reproducibility skill of the model in predicting atmospheric dynamics may not transform into the predictive skill of the model in producing rainfall. Nevertheless, operational forecasters may be able to determine likely areas of heavy rainfall by estimating the position of the AEJ core based on the position of areas of the least falling pressure from COSMO. Finally, the incorporation of the fractions skill score metric based on the neighbourhood approach could also assist operational forecasters to decide at which scale a severe weather alert can be issued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century). Plain Language Summary: The projections of future climate change are uncertain because they are dependent on different possible scenarios of human‐caused emissions and their interaction with natural forcings, internal climate variability, and inter‐model differences. This paper presents the results of the climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, for the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The sensitivity of the model response to different magnitudes of anthropogenic forcings in the twenty‐first‐century scenarios were performed using two different versions for the atmospheric composition and two different ocean general circulation models. Compared to CMIP5 GISS‐E2 versions, the CMIP6 GISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2100 in comparable scenarios due to larger effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. Both climate models with two different ocean components project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. Key Points: GISS E2.1 model with different configurations is used to carry out 134 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experimentsGISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2,100 in comparable Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in CMIP5 due to larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate responseBoth coupled models, E2.1‐G and E2.1‐H, project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100 with the largest decrease in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Acadian Forest Region is a temperate‐boreal transitional zone in eastern North America which provides a unique opportunity for understanding the potential effects of climate change on both forest types. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle changes, is an important indicator of the biological effects of climate change, which can be observed with stationary timelapse cameras known as phenocams. Using four growing seasons of observations for the species Acer rubrum (red maple), Betula papyrifera (paper/white birch) and Abies balsamea (balsam fir) from the Acadian Phenocam Network as well as multiple growing season observations from the North American PhenoCam Network we parameterized eight leaf emergence and six leaf senescence models for each species which span a range in process and driver representation. With climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) we simulated future leaf emergence, senescence and season length (senescence minus emergence) for these species at sites within the Acadian Phenocam Network. Model performances were similar across models and leaf emergence model RMSE ranged from about 1 to 2 weeks across species and models, while leaf senescence model RMSE ranged from about 2 to 4 weeks. The simulations suggest that by the late 21st century, leaf senescence may become continuously delayed for boreal species like Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea, though remain relatively stable for temperate species like Acer rubrum. In contrast, the projected advancement in leaf emergence was similar across boreal and temperate species. This has important implications for carbon uptake, nutrient resorption, ecology and ecotourism for the Acadian Forest Region. More work is needed to improve predictions of leaf phenology for the Acadian Forest Region, especially with respect to senescence. Phenocams have the potential to rapidly advance process‐based model development and predictions of leaf phenology in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Often there are several complex ecosystem models available to address a specific question. However, structural differences, systematic discrepancies and uncertainties mean that they typically produce different outputs. Rather than selecting a single 'best' model, it is desirable to combine them to give a coherent answer to the question at hand.Many methods of combining ecosystem models assume that one of the models is exactly correct, which is unlikely to be the case. Furthermore, models may not be fitted to the same data, have the same outputs, nor be run for the same time period, making many common methods difficult to implement. In this paper, we use a statistical model to describe the relationship between the ecosystem models, prior beliefs and observations to make coherent predictions of the true state of the ecosystem with robust quantification of uncertainty.We introduce EcoEnsemble, an R package that takes advantage of the statistical model's structure to efficiently fit the ensemble model, either sampling from the posterior distribution or maximising the posterior density.We demonstrate EcoEnsemble by investigating what would happen to four fish species in the North Sea under future management scenarios. Although developed for applications in ecology, EcoEnsemble can be used to combine any group of mechanistic models, for example in climate modelling, epidemiology or biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a doubly periodic version of the Simple Convection‐Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) to provide an efficient configuration for this global convection permitting model (GCPM), akin to a single column model often found in conventional general circulation models. The design details are explained, in addition to the extensive case library associated with the doubly periodic SCREAM (DP‐SCREAM) configuration. We demonstrate that doubly periodic cloud resolving models are useful tools to explore the horizontal resolution sensitivity of GCPMs, in addition to replicating biases seen in the global models. Using DP‐SCREAM, we show that SCREAM exhibits behaviors of a scale aware model as it is able to naturally partition between sub‐grid scale (SGS) and resolved vertical transport across the gray zone of turbulence. We show that SCREAM is reasonably scale insensitive when run at resolutions from 1 to 5 km, but can exhibit sensitivity, particularly for the shallow convective regime, when run at resolutions approaching that of large eddy simulations. We conclude that SGS parameterization improvements are likely needed to reduce this scale sensitivity. Plain Language Summary: Advances in computational resources have allowed climate simulations to be performed with very high resolution, which provides higher quality results. However, these simulations require a lot of time and computer resources to perform, which makes these models difficult to use for the common scientist. In this paper we develop a high‐resolution configuration which focuses on a specific point on the globe, enabling it to run fast and to use minimal computational resources. This allows users and developers to gauge how the model may perform before doing a computationally intensive global simulation. We show that this faster configuration is a useful tool to replicate problems that are found in the global model and is a valuable way to assess sensitivities of the model, particularly pertaining to choices made in its resolution. Key Points: Doubly periodic configurations represent an efficient framework to supplement global cloud resolving modelsShallow convection is sensitive to horizontal resolution in Simple Convection‐Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) but stratiform clouds are more robustSCREAM exhibits the behaviors of a scale aware model and can represent a range of cloud regimes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oxygen chemistry plays a central role in the production of plasma in the ionosphere. While molecular oxygen (O2) is the third most abundant constituent in the thermosphere, molecular and atomic oxygen densities are difficult to quantify accurately. Consequently, modeled densities have significant uncertainties. New stellar occultation measurements from the Global‐scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission provide data that can quantify, with high precision, the O2 density and its daily and local time variations. These observations are compared to the Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter radar family of empirical models and the physics based Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension. While GOLD observations show a strong diurnal structure with local time, the models display a semidiurnal structure in O2. The local time structure of O2 is critical for accurately modeling plasma densities in the ionosphere. Plain Language Summary: This paper compares new observations from the Global‐scale Observations of Limb and Disk mission of molecular oxygen (O2) in the lower thermosphere (130–200 km in altitude) to widely used models in the aeronomy community. The main finding is that the local time structure of the observed O2 has a minimum at 6 hr local time and a peak near 18 hr local time while the models all show a structure that has peaks at both 6 and 18 hr local time. This significant difference not only influences the total neutral thermospheric density results from the models, but may ultimately impact the calculated ionospheric plasma density and its temporal variability. Understanding ionospheric plasma densities is vital for the proper modeling of the propagation of communications and navigational signals. Key Points: Global‐scale Observation of Limb and Disk molecular oxygen (O2) density indicates a diurnal local time structure, while empirical and numerical models have a semidiurnal structure Seasonal variability in O2 density is important for understanding the local time structure Observed vertical O2 density structure has discrepancies with models, with larger differences at 170 km than 140 km [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an implementation of the combined hybrid‐parallel prediction (CHyPP) approach of Wikner et al. (2020), https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0005541 on a low‐resolution atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). The CHyPP approach combines a physics‐based numerical model of a dynamical system (e.g., the atmosphere) with a computationally efficient type of machine learning (ML) called reservoir computing to construct a hybrid model. This hybrid atmospheric model produces more accurate forecasts of most atmospheric state variables than the host AGCM for the first 7–8 forecast days, and for even longer times for the temperature and humidity near the earth's surface. It also produces more accurate forecasts than a model based only on ML, or a model that combines linear regression, rather than ML, with the AGCM. The potential of the CHyPP approach for climate research is demonstrated by a 10‐year long hybrid model simulation of the atmospheric general circulation, which shows that the hybrid model can simulate the general circulation with substantially smaller systematic errors and more realistic variability than the host AGCM. Plain Language Summary: This paper presents a computationally efficient novel approach to construct a hybrid model of the atmosphere by combining a physics‐based model of the global atmospheric circulation with a machine learning component. The primary purpose of the hybrid model is to produce quantitative weather forecasts on the same grid as the physics‐based model. It is found that the hybrid model produces more accurate forecasts than the host physics‐based model for the first 7–8 forecast days for most forecast variables, and for even longer times for the temperature and humidity near the Earth's surface. Furthermore, the hybrid model is found to simulate the climate with substantially smaller systematic errors and more realistic temporal variability than the host model. Key Points: A hybrid model incorporating machine learning produces more accurate forecasts and more realistic climate than the host physics‐based modelThe hybrid model states are more realistically balanced and have substantially lower biases than the host modelThe hybrid model produces more realistic atmospheric variability than the host model at time scales shorter than about a week [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the microphysical process contributions to surface precipitation in numerical simulations can be challenging. This is due to the fact that many microphysical processes contribute to the formation and depletion of rain drops and there is almost always a spatial/temporal mismatch between where/when rain is formed and where/when it strikes the surface. In this work, we develop a tracing method that tracks the sources and sinks of raindrop mass and number as they are advected by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Applying the method to an idealized squall line confirms that convective precipitation is dominated by warm rain processes (autoconversion and accretion) while stratiform precipitation is dominated by the melting of rimed and unrimed ice crystals. Sensitivity experiments in which the prescribed cloud drop number concentration is increased confirm the conventional wisdom that weakened autoconversion increases the fraction of raindrops originating from cold rain processes. The method also reveals that when applied to deep convection the Khairoutdinov and Kogan autoconversion scheme produces an excessive number of raindrops which are subsequently clipped in P3 microphysics to keep the rain size distribution within prescribed limits. This problem can mostly be mitigated by increasing the assumed radius for raindrops created by autoconversion. Plain Language Summary: Weather and climate models simulate precipitation by accounting for a multitude of processes that form and remove rain drops. Due to spatial and temporal lags between the processes and the consequent surface precipitation, it can be challenging to quantitatively link the former to the latter. This paper remedies the challenge with a tool that tracks processes contributions throughout the rain lifecycle. The tool's utility is demonstrated through an idealized squall line which produces precipitation through various microphysical pathways. Additionally, perturbations to model parameters and their consequent impact on the squall line are interpreted through the lens of the new tool. Key Points: A tool to trace the process contributions to surface precipitation is developedThe tool confirms dominance of warm processes in convective rain and cold processes in stratiform rainThe tool reveals that the autoconversion formulation produces an excessive amount of rain drops that the microphysics scheme clips [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) impacts the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity with a stronger MJO in QBO easterly (QBOE) than QBO westerly (QBOW) winters. However, this relationship is poorly represented in the current generation climate models. For the first time, this paper applies a stratospheric zonal‐mean nudging in a subseasonal prediction system to capture it. Two strong MJO cases in a QBO‐neutral winter are investigated. The QBO temperature and zonal wind anomalies are added separately as well as together to the stratosphere using nudging in MJO case hindcast. Only by nudging the QBO temperature anomalies while leaving the zonal wind free, can the prediction system capture the observed QBO‐MJO connection. The tropopause instability is found positively correlated to the MJO amplitude, but it cannot fully explain the captured connection. The free‐evolving zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere due to the nudged QBO temperature are crucial for the captured connection. Plain Language Summary: The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a dominant subseasonal mode in the tropical troposphere is strongly modulated by the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), which is the dominant interannual mode in the tropical stratosphere. However, such QBO‐MJO connection is missing in the long‐term simulations of all current climate models. Here, we show that by adding the QBO temperature signals into the MJO case simulation using the CESM2 subseasonal prediction system, the QBO‐MJO connection can be captured. Interestingly, the QBO temperature alone is not enough to explain the captured connection. The free‐evolving zonal wind generated by the nudged temperature is also crucial to capturing the QBO‐MJO relationship. These results provide a new perspective to understand the QBO‐MJO connection and improve its representation in climate models. Key Points: QBO‐MJO connection is captured in initialized MJO case studies by adding QBO temperature anomalies to the stratosphereThe free‐evolving zonal wind shear in the stratosphere is necessary to capture the QBO‐MJO connectionTropopause instability changes can not fully explain the captured QBO‐MJO connection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability through an empirical dynamical model‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By selectively including or excluding the coupling between tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific in LIM, we find that the tropical Atlantic dynamics significantly improve the Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO prediction and weaken the EP‐ENSO predictability barrier (PB), with the Equatorial Atlantic (EA) mode playing a more important role than the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) mode. The tropical Atlantic impacts on Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO predictability and PB are relatively smaller. Consistent with observations, the tropical Atlantic can weaken PB in most CMIP6 models. The evolution of the tropical Atlantic optimum initial structures confirms the important influence of the EA mode on the eastern tropical Pacific. Therefore, the tropical Atlantic dynamics, especially the EA mode, should be appropriately considered to improve the prediction of EP‐ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO PB. Plain Language Summary: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climate modes in the tropical Pacific on interannual timescales, with significant global impacts. The tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability, especially in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and equatorial Atlantic (EA), is shown to have important impacts on ENSO variability. Using a linear dynamical model, we find that including the dynamics of the tropical Atlantic, especially the EA SST mode, can significantly improve the forecast skill of Eastern Pacific ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB), which is a sudden reduction of ENSO prediction skill in the boreal spring. However, Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO's forecast skill is less influenced by the tropical Atlantic dynamic. Consistent with the observations, the topical Atlantic can weaken ENSO SPB in most CMIP6 climate models. Our results suggest that the tropical Atlantic dynamics should be appropriately considered to improve the forecast skill of EP‐ENSO. Key Points: A linear dynamical model is used to study the impact of the tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictabilityTropical Atlantic dynamics can improve Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO predictability and weaken EP‐ENSO spring predictability barrier while the impact on Central Pacific‐ENSO is limitedThe Equatorial Atlantic mode plays an important role in the tropical Atlantic influence of EP‐ENSO prediction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convective aggregation is an important atmospheric phenomenon which frequently occurs in idealized models in radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE), where the effects of land, rotation, sea surface temperature gradients, and the diurnal cycle are often removed. This aggregation is often triggered and maintained by self‐generated radiatively driven circulations, for which longwave feedbacks are essential. Many questions remain over how important the driving processes of aggregation in idealized models are in the real atmosphere. We approach this question by adding a continentally sized, idealized tropical rainforest island into an RCE model to investigate how land‐sea contrasts impact convective aggregation and its mechanisms. We show that convection preferentially forms over the island persistently in our simulation. This is forced by a large‐scale, thermally driven circulation. First, a sea‐breeze circulation is triggered by the land‐sea thermal contrast, driven by surface sensible heating. This sea‐breeze circulation triggers convection which then generates longwave heating anomalies. Through mechanism denial tests we find that removing the longwave feedbacks reduces the large‐scale effects of aggregation but does not prevent aggregation from occurring, and thus we highlight there must be another process aiding the aggregation of convection. We also show, by varying the island size, that the aggregated convective cluster appears to have a maximum spatial extent of O $\mathcal{O}$(10,000 km). These results highlight that the mechanisms of idealized aggregation remain relevant when land is included in the model, and therefore these mechanisms could help us understand convective organization in the real world. Plain Language Summary: Large tropical storm clouds can cluster together to form organized systems, which are associated with extreme precipitation within the cloudy region, and very dry conditions away from the cloudy region. These systems, called organized deep convection, are often studied in simplified models of the atmosphere where the land, Earth's rotation, and variations in sea‐surface temperature are removed. In this paper we take a step toward reality and look at how including a large, idealized island in a simplified model affects how convection clusters. We show that convective clouds group together over the land throughout our model simulations. We investigate the processes driving this and find that surface flux feedbacks dominate early in the simulations. The feedbacks maintaining the convective aggregation are more complex. We find there is an important role for the longwave feedbacks, but that there must be another necessary process also aiding the clustering process. Our results highlight that the processes in highly idealized modeling studies seem to be relevant in more realistic models, and thus could help us understand how convection organizes in the real world. However, we also conclude it is important that follow‐up work investigates the remaining additional feedbacks to gain a more complete understanding. Key Points: Convection preferentially aggregates over land in a global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulationA global land‐centered circulation drives the aggregation and is triggered through surface fluxes, but maintained through longwave fluxesThe land‐based convective cluster appears to have a maximum spatial scale of O $\mathcal{O}$(10,000 km) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]