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The growing demand for freshwater resources has led to dam construction and water diversions in a majority of the world's large rivers. With an increasing demand for freshwater, trade‐offs between water allocations and the preservation of ecological connections between terrestrial and marine ecosystems are inevitable. The ecological links formed by rivers flowing into the ocean benefit many commercially fished species. The degree to which different species and the livelihoods of fishers are negatively impacted by changes in river flows due to water extraction or diversion is important for management across terrestrial and marine boundaries. Our objective was to predict how changes in freshwater flows from three wet–dry tropical rivers in northern Australia, that is, the Mitchell, Gilbert, and Flinders rivers, affect the commercial banana prawn (Penaeus merguiensis) catch. We used a novel spatiotemporal Bayesian approach to model the effects of river flows and key climate drivers on banana prawn catch. We then predicted how the loss of flow due to water extraction or diversion affected prawn catch. Our analyses of three water development scenarios found that catch was most impacted by water extraction during low flows. The impact of water extraction was greatest for a scenario with dams on the Mitchell River, where we predicted catch would decline by 53% during a year with low flow. Overall, our results imply that maintenance of low‐level flows is a crucial requirement for sustained fishery yields. We suggest that water managers must balance agricultural demand for water during drier years against the impact of water extraction on prawn fisheries during low‐flow years. Protecting low‐level flows during drier years is a priority for maintaining terrestrial–marine linkages for adjacent marine fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Predicting how climate change is hkely to interact with myriad other Stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use-related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory, nonnative smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams, and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and nonnative species on stream-rearing salmon and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin. We compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, endof- century warming may cause near total loss of chinook salmon-rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (two- to fourfold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of chinook salmon from the more altered stream and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon-rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater prédation risk by nonnative species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the determinants of species' distributions and abundances is a central theme in ecology. The development of statistical models to achieve this has a long history and the notion that the model should closely reflect underlying scientific understanding has encouraged ecologists to adopt complex statistical methods as they arise. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model that reflects a conceptual ecological model of multi-scaled environmental determinants of riverine fish species' distributions and abundances. We illustrate this with distribution and abundance data of a small-bodied fish species, the Empire gudgeon Hypseleotris galii, in the Mary and Albert Rivers, Queensland, Australia. Specifically, the model sought to address; 1) the extent that landscape-scale abiotic variables can explain the species' distribution compared to local-scale variables, 2) how local-scale abiotic variables can explain species' abundances, and 3) how are these local-scale relationships mediated by landscape-scale variables. Overall, the model accounted for around 60% of variation in the distribution and abundance of H. galii. The findings show that the landscape-scale variables explain much of the distribution of the species; however, there was considerable improvement in estimating the species' distribution with the addition of local-scale variables. There were many strong relationships between abundance and local-scale abiotic variables; however, several of these relationships were mediated by some of the landscape-scale variables. The extent of spatial autocorrelation in the data was relatively low compared to the distances among sampling reaches. Our findings exemplify that Bayesian statistical modelling provides a robust framework for statistical modelling that reflects our ecological understanding. This allows ecologists to address a range of ecological questions with a single unified probability model rather than a series of disconnected analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which investigates the potential impact of the flow-regulation scenario in the two river ecology in Australia using multidimensional scaling (MDS). The study uses a single Bayesian belief network (BBN) to represent the changes in the flow regulation and current, near-natural flow condition during wet and dry seasons. The results reveal that flow regulation lowers the differentiation in hydrology and assemblage characteristics every season.