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This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating the existing methodologies and models employed to understand the potential distributions of pests based on historical data and under future climate change scenarios. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models and provide commentary on their ability to identify emerging threats due to climate change accurately and adequately, considering pest establishment likelihood, host crop exposure and the distribution of impacts. The simplest methods are based on climate‐matching models, degree‐day development models and Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Correlative species distribution models derive species–environment relationships and have been applied to PRA with mixed success. When fitted models are applied to different continents they are usually challenged to extrapolate climate suitability patterns outside the climate space used to train them. Global climate change is creating novel climates, exacerbating this 'transferability' problem. Some tools have been developed to reveal when these models are extrapolating. Process‐oriented models, which focus on mechanisms and processes rather than distribution patterns, are inherently more reliable for extrapolation to novel climates such as new continents and future climate scenarios. These models, however, require more skill and generally more knowledge of the species to craft robust models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already having impacts on biodiversity within Europe, with habitats and species needing to change and adapt to rising global temperatures and shifts in bio-climatic zones. Spatial planning represents an important intervention to further European, national and local biodiversity objectives for climate change adaptation. Drawing on case-studies of plans for inland and coastal areas, and involving stakeholder workshops, this paper reports on a trans-national study examining the scope of spatial plans in the Netherlands, England and France in addressing the impact of climate change. It concludes that spatial planning is making provision for biodiversity and dynamic natural processes. However, while good practice in planning for biodiversity under conditions of climate change is developing, systematic use is not being made of available procedures. The paper examines some of the barriers to implementation of this new policy commitment to climate change adaptation. Recommendations are made covering policy development to include climate change impacts upon biodiversity, modified procedures for plan-making and the appraisal of plans and projects. Amongst the specific measures recommended are the climate-proofing of projects and plans through the use of EIA and SEA; the integration of plans through adoption of common objectives and review of time horizons and boundaries; and an ecosystem-based planning approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A climatic regionalization of Saudi Arabia that aims to classify the country into several homogenous groups is carried out, by grouping similar long-term climatological features for precipitation and air temperature. Twenty-seven stations are selected across Saudi Arabia for the analysis and 1985-2010 (26 years) is chosen as the common period. The employed methodology is a combination of mathematical and statistical techniques (principal components analysis and correlation); and a rather subjective physically detailed comparison with the long-term climatology and topography for Saudi Arabia. Five groups have been identified: group A (Northern), B (Red Sea Coastal), C (Interior), D (Highland) and E (Southern). Each of the climatic groups exhibits a unique feature (with strong similarities among stations that belong to the same group), especially in terms of inter-annual fluctuations and the degree of seasonality. This simplified overview of climatic characteristics is beneficial for assisting with economic planning, especially for any semi-arid or arid land that is naturally vulnerable to climatic variability and extremes. The classification method used in this study, however, would be applicable for similar studies on regionalization in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT During the last decades due to the increased interest about climate change, many studies have been conducted trying to detect shifts in climatic series. The necessity of the homogenization of meteorological observations becomes obvious to all these studies. In practice, inhomogeneities are hardly ever avoided, because the meteorological station networks are constantly changing. A myriad of methods for detecting and adjusting inhomogeneities in climate series have been developed. In this study two homogeneity methodologies, namely MASH and Climatol, were applied to 49 monthly temperature series of synoptic stations, covering almost all climatic zones of Greece, belonging to the operational weather network of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service ( HNMS). Time series cover periods ranging from 35 to 45 years. Only 8.2% of the stations passed both tests successfully, another 10.2% passed the MASH homogeneity test successfully without any breakpoint, but not the Climatol test. On the other hand, 14.3% of the stations passed the Climatol test successfully but not the MASH test. The remaining stations presented one or more breaks or outliers in both homogeneity methods. Due to lack of metadata only 15% of the breaks could be explained by the stations' history. Station relocations as well as changes in observation practices caused most of the temperature anomalies. The adjustments in seasonal series were in the range from −2.54 to 1.39 °C for MASH and from −2.30 to 1.50 °C for Climatol. Seasonal and annual mean temperature trends were analyzed and their statistical significance calculated. The most pronounced seasonal trends were recorded in summer. Also, the differences of climatological normals for the period 1961-1990 between raw and homogenized annual series were computed. The absolute values of differences ranged from 0.0 to 0.8 °C for MASH and from 0.0 to 1.0 °C for Climatol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The initial version (v1) of the Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) was adapted from the Weed Risk Assessment of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy to assess the potential invasiveness of nonnative freshwater fishes in the United Kingdom. Published applications of FISK v1 have been primarily in temperate-zone countries (Belgium, Belarus, and Japan), so the specificity of this screening tool to that climatic zone was not noted until attempts were made to apply it in peninsular Florida. To remedy this shortcoming, the questions and guidance notes of FISK v1 were reviewed and revised to improve clarity and extend its applicability to broader climatic regions, resulting in changes to 36 of the 49 questions. In addition, upgrades were made to the software architecture of FISK to improve overall computational speed as well as graphical user interface flexibility and friendliness. We demonstrate the process of screening a fish species using FISK v2 in a realistic management scenario by assessing the Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo (Terapontidae), a species whose management concerns are related to its potential use for aquaponics in Florida. The FISK v2 screening of Barcoo grunter placed the species into the lower range of medium risk (score = 5), suggesting it is a permissible species for use in Florida under current nonnative species regulations. Screening of the Barcoo grunter illustrates the usefulness of FISK v2 as a proactive tool serving to inform risk management decisions, but the low level of confidence associated with the assessment highlighted a dearth of critical information on this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jiang, W., Guiot, J., Chu, G., Wu, H., Yuan, B., Hatté, C. & Guo, Z. 2009: An improved methodology of the modern analogues technique for palaeoclimate reconstruction in arid and semi-arid regions. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00115.x. ISSN 0300-9483. This study presents an improved method of the plant functional type modern analogues technique (PFT-MAT) in which environmental proxies and a moisture index (α, i.e. ratio of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration) are used to constrain the selection of modern analogues. The method is tested using high-resolution, precisely dated palaeorecords (pollen, Pediastrum and δ18O of authigenic carbonate) from Lake Bayanchagan, northern China. The unconstrained and constrained PFT-MAT produces general agreement for Holocene climate changes, with a wet period between 11 000 and 5500 cal. yr BP and a warm interval between 11 000 and 8000 cal. yr BP. However, there are significant differences in the details of their reconstruction. The constrained PFT-MAT generally yields smaller error bars for the reconstructed climate parameters than the unconstrained PFT-MAT. In addition, three prominent climatic events are identified from the constrained reconstructions; namely, a cold event around 8400 cal. yr BP and two warm events around 6000 and 2000 cal. yr BP, which is consistent with other regional palaeoclimatic records. Our data show that changes in tree components correlate well with α variations during the entire Holocene, with the highest tree components and highest α values between 8000 and 5500 cal. yr BP, indicating the dominant role of α in the growth of trees in northern China rather than single temperature or precipitation. The improved PFT-MAT is therefore an efficient method for quantitative reconstructions of palaeoclimate in arid and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice-obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice-intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species-specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice-obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea-ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice-obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice-intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review recent advances in classifications of circulation patterns as a specific research area within synoptic climatology. The review starts with a general description of goals of classification and the historical development in the field. We put circulation classifications into a broader context within climatology and systematize the varied methodologies and approaches. We characterize three basic groups of classifications: subjective (also called manual), mixed (hybrid), and objective (computer-assisted, automated). The roles of cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the classification process are clarified. Several recent methodological developments in circulation classifications are identified and briefly described: the introduction of nonlinear methods, objectivization of subjective catalogs, efforts to optimize classifications, the need for intercomparisons of classifications, and the progress toward an optimum, if possible unified, classification method. Among the recent tendencies in the applications of circulation classifications, we mention a more extensive use in climate studies, both of past, present, and future climates, innovative applications in the ensemble forecasting, increasing variety of synoptic–climatological investigations, and steps above from the troposphere. After introducing the international activity within the field of circulation classifications, the COST733 Action, we briefly describe outputs of the inventory of classifications in Europe, which was carried out within the Action. Approaches to the evaluation of classifications and their mutual comparisons are also reviewed. A considerable part of the review is devoted to three examples of applications of circulation classifications: in historical climatology, in analyses of recent climate variations, and in analyses of outputs from global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the stationarity of climate change. Analysis of crop yields depend on the assumption of stationarity of variance while the mean changes with time. Due to climate change, mean and variance of crop yields may be changed as well as stationarity of distribution. The article examines crop yields while changing the mean and variance. It studies the stationarity of different climates and their effects on crop yields. Information on climate changes and models for their analysis are presented. An overview of the report is also provided.

Without the participation of the United States, for many years the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, mitigation of global climate change seems hardly conceivable. Despite the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and the reluctance of the Bush administration to engage in post-Kyoto negotiations, recent developments suggest that the US position towards climate policy might change in the medium run. This study provides an overview on current trends in US climate policy. We outline the main elements of national climate policy proposals and state-level initiatives. Based on this overview, recent trends in US climate policy are related to the European approach to combat climate change. Furthermore, we elaborate on the aspects that may be important for Europe to design its own domestic and international climate policy in order to achieve the long-term global goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. While it seems likely that the US will take a leading role in international climate policy, it can also be expected to challenge the European position in many respects rather than to simply support any Kyoto-type process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Assessment of cross-continental similarities and differences in climatic limiting values for deciduous tree species and of the possible deterministic influence of past and present climatic differences on the modern tree flora in two regions. Location The deciduous forest regions of western Eurasia and eastern North America. Methods Based on species distribution data (range maps) and climate site data, the realized climatic niches of 137 deciduous tree species from the two regions were quantified using climatic envelopes. To compare these envelopes on the two continents, a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed, and principal components analysis was used to check cluster consistency. Results Significant differences do exist for upper limits of winter temperatures and for lower limits of summer temperatures between Western Eurasia and eastern North America. Lower limits for the annual water balance also appear different, suggesting that the deciduous trees may be more drought-tolerant in western Eurasia than in eastern North America. Climatic range types generated by the cluster analysis can be characterized, according to the distribution of the species, as boreal-temperate, northern temperate, temperate, southern temperate, and Appalachian. Five of the eight clusters contain trees from both regions, but three groups consist only of American species that have no European counterparts. Main conclusions Differences in temperature limitations can be explained by location on the east versus west side of the continents and by the almost complete lack of warm moist areas in western Eurasia. The difference in drought tolerance, on the other hand, is more likely to be the product of a deterministic sorting process that occurred during the Plio-Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Beech (Fagus L., Fagaceae) species are representative trees of temperate deciduous broadleaf forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We focus on the distributional limits of beech species, in particular on identifying climatic factors associated with their present range limits. Location Beech species occur in East Asia, Europe and West Asia, and North America. We collated information on both the southern and northern range limits and the lower and upper elevational limits for beech species in each region. Methods In total, 292 lower/southern limit and 310 upper/northern limit sites with available climatic data for all 11 extant beech species were collected by reviewing the literature, and 13 climatic variables were estimated for each site from climate normals at nearby stations. We used principal components analysis (PCA) to detect climatic variables most strongly associated with the distribution of beech species and to compare the climatic spaces for the different beech species. Results Statistics for thermal and moisture climatic conditions at the lower/southern and upper/northern limits of all world beech species are presented. The first two PCA components accounted for 70% and 68% of the overall variance in lower/southern and upper/northern range limits, respectively. The first PCA axis represented a thermal gradient, and the second a moisture gradient associated with the world-wide distribution pattern of beech species. Among thermal variables, growing season warmth was most important for beech distribution, but winter low temperature (coldness and mean temperature for the coldest month) and climatic continentality were also coupled with beech occurrence. The moisture gradient, indicated by precipitation and moisture indices, showed regional differences. American beech had the widest thermal range, Japanese beeches the most narrow; European beeches occurred in the driest climate, Japanese beeches the most humid. Climatic spaces for Chinese beech species were between those of American and European species. Main conclusions The distributional limits of beech species were primarily associated with thermal factors, but moisture regime also played a role. There were some regional differences in the climatic correlates of distribution. The growing season temperature regime was most important in explaining distribution of Chinese beeches, whilst their northward distribution was mainly limited by shortage of precipitation. In Japan, distribution limits of beech species were correlated with summer temperature, but the local dominance of beech was likely to be dependent on snowfall and winter low temperature. High summer temperature was probably a limiting factor for southward extension of American beech, while growing season warmth seemed critical for its northward distribution. Although the present distribution of beech species corresponded well to the contemporary climate in most areas, climatic factors could not account for some distributions, e. g., that of F. mexicana compared to its close relative F. grandifolia. It is likely that historical factors play a secondary role in determining the present distribution of beech species. The lack of F. grandifolia on the island of Newfoundland, Canada, may be due to inadequate growing season warmth. Similarly, the northerly distribution of beech in Britain has not reached its potential limit, perhaps due to insufficient time since deglaciation to expand its range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]