Search

Clinical studies examining the effectiveness of a treatment with respect to some primary outcome often require long‐term follow‐up of patients and/or costly or burdensome measurements of the primary outcome of interest. Identifying a surrogate marker for the primary outcome of interest may allow one to evaluate a treatment effect with less follow‐up time, less cost, or less burden. While much clinical and statistical work has focused on identifying and validating surrogate markers, available approaches tend to focus on settings in which only a single surrogate marker is of interest. Limited work has been done to accommodate the high‐dimensional surrogate marker setting where the number of potential surrogates is greater than the sample size. In this article, we develop methods to estimate the proportion of treatment effect explained by high‐dimensional surrogates. We study the asymptotic properties of our proposed estimator, propose inference procedures, and examine finite sample performance via a simulation study. We illustrate our proposed methods using data from a randomized study comparing a novel whey‐based oral nutrition supplement with a standard supplement with respect to change in body fat percentage over 12 weeks, where the surrogate markers of interest are gene expression probesets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sepsis is a major cause of mortality among hospitalized patients worldwide. Shorter time to administration of broad‐spectrum antibiotics is associated with improved outcomes, but early recognition of sepsis remains a major challenge. In a two‐center cohort study with prospective sample collection from 1400 adult patients in emergency departments suspected of sepsis, we sought to determine the diagnostic and prognostic capabilities of a machine‐learning algorithm based on clinical data and a set of uncommonly measured biomarkers. Specifically, we demonstrate that a machine‐learning model developed using this dataset outputs a score with not only diagnostic capability but also prognostic power with respect to hospital length of stay (LOS), 30‐day mortality, and 3‐day inpatient re‐admission both in our entire testing cohort and various subpopulations. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for diagnosis of sepsis was 0.83. Predicted risk scores for patients with septic shock were higher compared with patients with sepsis but without shock (p < 0.0001). Scores for patients with infection and organ dysfunction were higher compared with those without either condition (p < 0.0001). Stratification based on predicted scores of the patients into low, medium, and high‐risk groups showed significant differences in LOS (p < 0.0001), 30‐day mortality (p < 0.0001), and 30‐day inpatient readmission (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, a machine‐learning algorithm based on electronic medical record (EMR) data and three nonroutinely measured biomarkers demonstrated good diagnostic and prognostic capability at the time of initial blood culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]