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This paper evaluated and compared the performance of a statistical downscaling method and a dynamical downscaling method to simulate the spatial–temporal rainfall distribution. Outputs from RegCM4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the CanESM2 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) were selected for the data scarce Gwadar‐Ormara basin, Pakistan. The evaluation was based on the climatological average and standard deviation for historic (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The performance evaluation showed that statistical downscaling is preferred to simulate and project rainfall patterns in the study area. Additionally, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) showed low R2 values in calibration and validation of the simulations with respect to observed data for the historic period. Overall, SDSM generated satisfactory results in simulating the monthly rainfall cycle of the entire basin. In this study, RegCM4 showed large rainfall errors and missed one rainfall season in the historic period. This study also explored whether the grid‐based rainfall time series of the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Daily Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset could be used to enlarge and complement the sample of in situ observed rainfall time series. A spatial correlogram was used for observed and APHRODITE rainfall data to assess the consistency between the two data sources, which resulted in rejecting APHRODITE data. For the future time period (2041–2070) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, rainfall projections did not show significant difference for both downscaling approaches. This may relate to the driving model (CanESM2 AOGCM) and not necessarily suggests poor performance of downscaling; either statistical or dynamical. Hence, the study recommends evaluating a multi‐model ensemble including other GCMs and RCMs for the same area of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among several devastating natural hazards, flooding is a common and serious threat to society causing huge loss of lives, properties, and infrastructure throughout the world. The intensity and frequency of this extreme weather event are expected to increase due to significant changes in the present‐day climate and land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. India has a very systematic and organized structural program and policies but lacks proper implementations, and adverse effect of climate change and the extreme event goes on in society. This paper is an analysis of floods in India and hazards due to climate change and LULC change patterns. Three models, namely "Eco‐biogeography‐based optimization (EBO), Random forest (RF), and Support vector machine (SVM)" were used to obtain the final output to prepare a "Flood susceptibility map". The result was validated through the "Receiver operating characteristics (ROC)" with "Area under curve (AUC)" values. The future rainfall scenario has been estimated by considering the "General circulation models" through different "shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)". The values of AUC are 0.915 (EBO), 0.887 (RF), and 0.869 (SVM), respectively. After consideration of different SSPs, the result shows that there is an increasing tendency of flood hazards in the projected period. Among all the employed modelling approaches, the EBO model has notable potential in delineating the possible flood‐prone regions for effective flood planning and management. Decision‐makers can benefit from country‐specific information and regional planner to implement sustainable and long‐term measures to overcome this type of hazardous situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century). Plain Language Summary: The projections of future climate change are uncertain because they are dependent on different possible scenarios of human‐caused emissions and their interaction with natural forcings, internal climate variability, and inter‐model differences. This paper presents the results of the climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, for the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The sensitivity of the model response to different magnitudes of anthropogenic forcings in the twenty‐first‐century scenarios were performed using two different versions for the atmospheric composition and two different ocean general circulation models. Compared to CMIP5 GISS‐E2 versions, the CMIP6 GISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2100 in comparable scenarios due to larger effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. Both climate models with two different ocean components project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. Key Points: GISS E2.1 model with different configurations is used to carry out 134 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experimentsGISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2,100 in comparable Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in CMIP5 due to larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate responseBoth coupled models, E2.1‐G and E2.1‐H, project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100 with the largest decrease in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7–3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: This paper describes the latest iteration of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, which will be used for understanding historical climate change and to make projections for the future. We compare the model output to a wide range of observations over the recent era (1979–2014) and show that there has been a significant increase in how well the model performs compared to the previous version from 2014, particularly in the Southern Ocean, though some persistent biases remain. The model has a temperature response to the increase of carbon dioxide that is slightly higher than previous versions but is well within the range expected from observational and past climate constraints. Key Points: GISS‐E2.1 is an updated climate model version for use within the CMIP6 projectAtmospheric composition is calculated consistently in all model versionsResults demonstrate a significant improvement in skill in a climate model without changes to atmospheric resolution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic since 1870 reveal a region of enhanced warming off the northeastern coast of North America, and a region of cooling to the south of Greenland. It has been hypothesized that these adjacent SST trends are a result of long‐term changes in the buoyancy‐driven ocean circulation—a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The impacts of these historical SST trends on the atmosphere are estimated using idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the global atmosphere is exposed to modern climatological forcing minus the aforementioned regional SST trends. The local response includes a negative North Atlantic Oscillation tendency and southward shift of the wind forcing for the subtropical gyre. Due to planetary wave propagation, the regional SST trends also induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Indian Ocean. Implications for climate feedbacks and projections are discussed. Plain Language Summary: The ocean surface is warming over most of the planet, with a couple of notable exceptions. One is over the North Atlantic Ocean, just south of Greenland, where the temperature of the ocean surface has actually been cooling by about 1°C since 1870. Nearby, extending off the northeastern coastline of North America is a region where the ocean surface has been warming much faster than the global ocean on average—by about 1.5°C since 1870. This side‐by‐side pair of accelerated warming and cooling trends is likely due to a slowdown of the ocean's overturning circulation, which carries large amounts of heat energy from the tropics toward the poles. This paper reveals the effects of those unusual ocean temperature trends in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric circulation using a computer model of the global atmosphere. The model simulations indicate that these ocean temperature trends are causing shifts in the jet stream, changing the way the winds propel the upper ocean currents, and even have impacts quite far away by moving the tropical rain belt northward in the Indian Ocean. Key Points: The impact of historical sea surface temperature trends in the North Atlantic since 1870 is simulated with a global atmospheric modelAdjacent warming and cooling trends in the North Atlantic Ocean induce a negative NAO‐like response and southward‐shifted gyre forcingPropagation of planetary waves away from the North Atlantic induces a northward‐shifted intertropical convergence zone in the Indian Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present‐day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2‐AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2‐AO, many aspects of the present‐day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top‐of‐atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present‐day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria. Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. In this paper we show that under climate change alone, population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying and separating different sources of uncertainty helps to improve the understanding of the projected effects of climate change and can inform decision‐making in adaptation planning. This paper (1) evaluated four process‐based crop models; (2) assessed the effects of climate change on maize yield using climate change outputs from seven global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and (3) disaggregated the contributions of multiple crop models, GCMs and RCPs to overall uncertainty. All four models captured more than 80% of the variation in days to silking, maturity and yield, indicating reasonably reproduced observations. Similarly, the root mean square errors were moderate for days to silking and maturity (fewer than 4 days) and yield (0.5–0.7 t/ha). Overall, the results indicate that the models could assess grain yield at the study sites reasonably well. The results of the multiple models ensemble indicate that the maize yield will decrease by 9–11% with a probability of 72–80% on average during the period 2010–2039 relative to the baseline (1976–2005). The uncertainty in the maize‐yield simulations might arise mostly from the GCM models, followed by the crop models and RCPs, the contribution of which could be neglected relative to the other factors. Therefore, the use of a multiple crop model and a GCM ensemble is advisable in order to account properly for uncertainties in crop assessments. The uncertainty in maize‐yield simulations might arise mostly from global climate models (GCMs), followed by crop models and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the contribution of which could be neglected relative to the other factors. Therefore, the use of a multiple crop model and a GCM ensemble is advisable in order to account properly for uncertainties in crop assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it is generally recognized that the projected changes in the global climate will have serious negative consequences for the Caribbean as a whole, it is becoming more and more evident that the impacts of climate change will not be uniformly felt across the region. The primary aim of this paper is to provide a review of the Caribbean climate change literature. The paper begins with a brief discussion on the shifting nature of Caribbean vulnerability within the context of the region's longstanding and continued exposure to forces of global economic and environmental change. Particular attention is paid to both the practical and discursive dimensions of vulnerability, and the specific ways the term has been understood and framed in relation to other crosscutting themes such as adaptation and resilience in the broader academic literature. In addition to providing an overview of the regional climate change science literature, the paper offers a critical review of the existing climate change impacts literature for the Caribbean. By drawing on, and taking stock of this growing body of impact studies, the paper seeks to shed light on the differential and multi-scalar drivers of social and economic vulnerabilities to climate variability and change in the Caribbean as well as highlight some of the existing knowledge gaps that need to be addressed. The paper ends by providing some brief ref lections on the emerging themes arising from the discussion and highlights a few key areas for future academic research for the Caribbean in light of existing knowledge gaps observed in the regional climate change impact literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The biases in the Global Circulation Models ( GCMs) are crucial for understanding future climate changes. Currently, most bias correction methodologies suffer from the assumption that model bias is stationary. This paper provides a non-stationary bias correction model, termed residual-based bagging tree ( RBT) model, to reduce simulation biases and to quantify the contributions of single models. Specifically, the proposed model estimates the residuals between individual models and observations, and takes the differences between observations and the ensemble mean into consideration during the model training process. A case study is conducted for 10 major river basins in Mainland China during different seasons. Results show that the proposed model is capable of providing accurate and stable predictions while including the non-stationarities into the modelling framework. Significant reductions in both bias and root mean squared error are achieved with the proposed RBT model, especially for the central and western parts of China. The proposed RBT model has consistently better performance in reducing biases when compared with the raw ensemble mean, the ensemble mean with simple additive bias correction, and the single best model for different seasons. Furthermore, the contribution of each single GCM in reducing the overall bias is quantified. The single model importance varies between 3.1% and 7.2%. For different future scenarios ( RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), the results from RBT model suggest temperature increases of 1.44, 2.59, and 4.71 °C by the end of the century, respectively, when compared with the average temperature during 1970-1999. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This paper aims to project areas of olive cultivation into future scenarios. Accordingly, we first asked the question whether global circulation models ( GCMs) are able to reproduce past climatic conditions and we used historical ranges of olive cultivation as a palaeoclimate proxy. Location The Mediterranean basin. Methods We used an ecological model, calibrated and validated for modern times, to test the reliability of a general circulation model ( NCAR-CSM GCM) in reproducing past ranges of olive tree cultivation inferred from the literature, archaeo-botanical investigations and fossil pollen analyses. Results The re-constructions of olive growing areas, obtained for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1200-1300 AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1600-1700 AD) by coupling the outputs of NCAR-CSM to the ecological model, were in agreement to those observed. Simulations of olive growing areas for future time-windows showed that a northwards expansion of the species is expected to occur by 2100. Main conclusions These results demonstrate that the NCAR-CSM can provide an accurate reconstruction of past climate with results sensitive to climate forcing factors and thus, it is more likely to give reliable projections for the future. Additionally, the warming and drying conditions expected in the coming decades may determine changes across the Mediterranean basin that is unprecedented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One way in which global climate model (GCM) output can be utilized to infer local impacts is through the use of synoptic climatology: creating a set of atmospheric patterns that capture the variability in the climate system, and then analyzing trends and variability in the frequency of these patterns moving into the future. In this paper, we demonstrate a new synoptic climatological technique for classifying atmospheric patterns that can be used in conjunction with GCM output data (in this case, the Community Climate System Model 3). We apply this method to 850-hPa temperature patterns over the contiguous United States to derive daily categorizations. A total of 15 clusters are created from the data set; once the mean GCM bias is removed, historical cluster frequencies in the GCM data set are not statistically different from those of the reanalysis data set. In the future, significant changes in frequency are observed across most of the transition season clusters, as they broaden in seasonality at the expense of winter clusters, some of which nearly entirely disappear. Changes are greater moving further into the future, and greater for the more carbon-intensive special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) scenarios (A1FI, A2) than the less-intensive scenario tested (B1). Diagnostics test how well the mean patterns of the reanalysis data set, GCM historical data set and the future GCM data sets resemble each other. For some clusters, mean bias between the historical and future data sets grows substantially by the end of the 21st century under the more carbon-intensive scenarios. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wetland ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to hydrological and climate changes. The Great Xing'an Mountain is such a region in China that has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third-generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in The Great Xing'an Mountain will rise by 2-4°C over the next 100 years. This paper predicts the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate conditions. This predication was performed by the Random Forests model, with 18 environmental variables, which will reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model has been proven to have a great prediction ability. The wetland distributions are primarily topography-driven in the Great Xing'an Mountains. Mean annual temperature, warmness index, and potential evapotranspiration ratio are the most important climatic factors in wetland distributions. The model predictions for three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area tends to decrease, and higher emission will also cause more drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of the wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 62.47, 76.90, and 85.83%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B, and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. As for spatial allocation, wetlands may begin to disappear from the sides to the center and south to north under a warming climate. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the south hills with flatter terrain, and some may occur in the north hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severe vanish of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only a small area of wetlands may remain in the north of the high mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate is changing. Much research has already been carried out to assess the potential impacts of climate change on plant physiology. However, effects on plant disease have not yet been deeply studied. In this paper, an empirical disease model for primary infection of downy mildew on grapevine was elaborated and used to project future disease dynamics under climate change. The disease model was run under the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and future scenarios of downy mildew primary outbreaks were generated at several sites all over the word for three future dates: 2030, 2050, 2080. Results suggested a potential general advance of first disease outbreaks, both in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, for all three future decades considered. The advance is predicted to be from about a minimum of one day in South Africa in 2030 to a maximum of 28 days in Chile and China in 2080. The advance in the outbreak time could lead to more severe infections, due to the polycyclic nature of the pathogen. Therefore, changes in the timing and frequency of fungicide treatments could be expected in the future, with a possible increase in the costs of disease management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate change resulting from recent increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is supposed to occur sometime in the middle of the next century. This climate change induced by GHGs would be caused by radiative forcing through the greenhouse effect and would lead to global warming and eventually to sea-level rise. This paper presents a climate change scenario for the greater Caribbean as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The CCC GCM projects a GHG induced temperature increase of about 2 0Cand more extreme rainfall conditions for the greater Caribbean. The climate records of temperature, rainfall and cloudiness for several stations on the island of Trinidad are then examined in an attempt to detect GHG climate change signals. The temperature change to date, close to 1 0C, and the fluctuations in rainfall patterns, over the lastfive decades, seem to be indicative of early greenhouse signals. ) 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]