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This paper proposes that "development justice" be taken up as an analytical concept and praxis‐driven framework for research on disasters, resilience, and climate change. The piece begins with a synopsis of the historical‐structural factors exacerbating risk in the Caribbean before reviewing the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and development justice. Next, drawing from empirical data and via a development justice lens, we highlight how the logics, practices, and debts of colonial underdevelopment, racial capitalism, and neoliberal extraction continue to erode resilience across the region. We end by recommending that future adaptation and mitigation strategies related to disasters, catastrophes, and climate change be more attentive to structural and slow violence, as well as the historical trajectories of imperialism, racial capitalism, and hetero patriarchal norms. In sum, the piece constitutes an evidence‐based assertion that development justice perspectives alongside theories of non‐metaphorical decolonisation be used by scholars, activists, scientists, and states alike who are committed to mediating climate change and preventing/reducing the damage caused by disasters. This paper proposes that "development justice" be taken up as an analytical concept and praxis‐driven framework for research on disasters, resilience, and climate change. Drawing from empirical data gathered from across the Caribbean, the manuscript highlights how the logics, practices, and debts of colonial underdevelopment, racial capitalism, and neoliberal extraction continue to erode resilience throughout the region. In sum, the piece constitutes an evidence‐based assertion that development justice perspectives alongside theories of non‐metaphorical decolonisation be used by scholars, activists, scientists, and states alike who are committed to mediating climate change and preventing/reducing the damage caused by disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it is generally recognized that the projected changes in the global climate will have serious negative consequences for the Caribbean as a whole, it is becoming more and more evident that the impacts of climate change will not be uniformly felt across the region. The primary aim of this paper is to provide a review of the Caribbean climate change literature. The paper begins with a brief discussion on the shifting nature of Caribbean vulnerability within the context of the region's longstanding and continued exposure to forces of global economic and environmental change. Particular attention is paid to both the practical and discursive dimensions of vulnerability, and the specific ways the term has been understood and framed in relation to other crosscutting themes such as adaptation and resilience in the broader academic literature. In addition to providing an overview of the regional climate change science literature, the paper offers a critical review of the existing climate change impacts literature for the Caribbean. By drawing on, and taking stock of this growing body of impact studies, the paper seeks to shed light on the differential and multi-scalar drivers of social and economic vulnerabilities to climate variability and change in the Caribbean as well as highlight some of the existing knowledge gaps that need to be addressed. The paper ends by providing some brief ref lections on the emerging themes arising from the discussion and highlights a few key areas for future academic research for the Caribbean in light of existing knowledge gaps observed in the regional climate change impact literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing States ( SIDS) have narrow resource bases and are usually extremely reliant on fossil fuel based energy for transport and electricity generation. These island economies are thus particularly vulnerable to the impacts of peak oil and also to climate change, impacts which are likely to not only hamper economic development but also adversely affect the quality of life of local inhabitants. In order to reduce the vulnerability of SIDS to peak oil, an urgent transition to renewable sources of energy is necessary. This paper propounds that the reform of power sector that took place in Caribbean and Pacific SIDS (particularly between 1970 and 2000) should have been viewed as an opportunity to re-orient power producers away from the proclivity to utilise conventional fossil fuel uses. Reasons why reform measures did not result in a substantive transition are put forward. Moreover, recommendations towards facilitating a transition to renewable energy in the power sector through future reforms are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2‐ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short‐term, mid‐term and long‐term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade−1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade−1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elysiais a genus of sea slugs in which some species can "steal" chloroplasts (kleptoplasty) from algae and keep them photosynthetically active inside their cells. Solar‐powered animals are more susceptible to climate change as photosynthesis can increase the stress for these animals in extreme environmental conditions. Here, we used the Maxent algorithm and environmental envelopes (i.e. the multi‐dimensional environmental space in which a species can occur) to model the ecological niche of 21 Elysia species in the Caribbean to estimate their current and future potential distribution. We then used predicted distributions to map potential taxonomical richness and to describe the representation of the genus inside the marine protected areas (MPAs). For most species, we show an expansion of the northern and southern range of distribution, but a reduction in the central part. Although changes in richness appeared in different areas, predictions emphasize four large extensions that have a potential current richness of 13 and will have no species in the future: Pamlico Sound, North Carolina; the southwest of the Gulf of Mexico; the Great Bahama Bank; and the southwest of Brazil. Out of the total area with environmental conditions adequate for at least one of the species in the genus, 24.7% is located within MPAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding speciation mechanisms requires disentangling processes that promote and erode population‐level divergence. Three hypotheses are raised that contemporary population structure is mainly shaped by refugial isolation, gene flow or both. Testing these hypotheses requires range‐wide phylogeography and integrative analyses across scales. Here we aimed to (1) re‐estimate the previously unresolved nuclear divergence within a widespread bat; (2) test the above three phylogeographical hypotheses and (3) inform conservation management under climatic change. Location: North America including the Caribbean. Taxon: The big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus). Methods: We collected range‐wide samples and genome‐wide markers using restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing. Population structure was analysed by clustering methods and spatial estimations. Nuclear phylogeographical divergence was estimated using tree methods (concatenation and coalescence) and network analyses (TreeMix). Phylogeographical hypotheses were tested by comparing alternative evolutionary scenarios using demographic modelling. Species distribution modelling was used to help identify Pleistocene refugia and predict future range shifts under climatic change. Results: We identified three populations in the Caribbean, eastern and western North America. The western population further split into three phylogeographical clades: Pacific, southwestern North America and Mexico. Discordance among mitochondrial and nuclear topologies reflected strong impacts of gene flow without sex bias. Demographic modelling supported scenarios of historical isolation followed by secondary gene flow and estimated Holocene divergence times. Species distribution was essentially continuous during glaciation with possible regional isolation, and northward range shifts were predicted under future climatic change. Main Conclusions: Contemporary population divergence of big brown bats was shaped by both historical isolation and secondary gene flow, supporting the third phylogeographical hypothesis. While climatic change likely triggered initial divergence, ongoing gene flow has largely impacted the dynamic within‐species evolution and generated population divergence without speciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projections indicate that temperatures in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will rise by between 1.6 °C and 4 °C by the end of the century while changes in precipitation levels are expected to vary significantly across the region. This article estimates the impact of climate change on total factor productivity (TFP) and production. It combines data from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on 28 LAC countries for a 54‐year period (1961–2014) in order to inform policy makers of the cost of output losses in the absence of viable climate adaptation strategies. We use estimates of a random‐parameter stochastic production frontier (SPF) model specification to capture heterogeneity in technology and partial output elasticities across countries and unobserved environmental characteristics. Results show that change in output is mainly driven by an average annual TFP growth rate of.95%. Climate change induces significant reductions (9.03–12.7%) in productivity over the 2015–2050 period. In terms of output, these losses range from USD $14.7 to $31.4 billion dollars in the LAC region, depending on the scenario and the discount rate used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been—somewhat myopically—on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co‐benefits and trade‐offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple‐bottom line benefit with medium–high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co‐benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems‐based, multi‐metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems‐aligned 'socio‐economic planetary boundaries' offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross‐scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass die‐off of Caribbean corals has transformed many of this region's reefs to macroalgal‐dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Although attributed to a combination of local and global human stressors, the lack of long‐term data on Caribbean reef coral communities has prevented a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of coral declines. We integrated paleoecological, historical, and modern survey data to track the occurrence of major coral species and life‐history groups throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to the present. The regional loss of Acropora corals beginning by the 1960s from local human disturbances resulted in increases in the occurrence of formerly subdominant stress‐tolerant and weedy scleractinian corals and the competitive hydrozoan Millepora beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. These transformations have resulted in the homogenization of coral communities within individual countries. However, increases in stress‐tolerant and weedy corals have slowed or reversed since the 1980s and 1990s in tandem with intensified coral bleaching and disease. These patterns reveal the long history of increasingly stressful environmental conditions on Caribbean reefs that began with widespread local human disturbances and have recently culminated in the combined effects of local and global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic precipitation patterns to the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at different time scales is well‐known. However, recent research suggests a more complex behavior of the northern hemispheric tropical rain belt related to the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic. Here we present a precisely dated speleothem multi‐proxy record from a well‐monitored cave in Puerto Rico, covering the period between 46.2 and 15.3 ka. The stable isotope and trace element records document a pronounced response of regional rainfall to abrupt climatic excursions in the North Atlantic across the Last Glacial such as Heinrich stadials and Dansgaard/Oeschger events. The annual to multidecadal resolution of the proxy time series allows substructural investigations of the recorded events. Spectral analysis suggests that multidecadal to centennial variability persisted in the regional hydroclimate mainly during interstadial conditions but also during the Last Glacial Maximum. In particular, we observe a strong agreement between the speleothem proxy data and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, supporting a persistent link of oceanic forcing to regional precipitation. Comparison to other paleo‐precipitation records enables the reconstruction of past changes in position, strength, and extent of the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic in response to millennial‐ and orbital‐scale global climate change. Plain Language Summary: It is important to understand the climatic circumstances of how rainfall in the western tropical Atlantic varies under a changing climate to better manage the water supply for millions of people. However, it is not well understood how rainfall varied in the past, especially during the Last Glacial period, a time of strong climate variability and abrupt climate changes. Here, we use a stalagmite from Puerto Rico to create a new record of past changes in rainfall in this region. For this purpose, we analyzed proxy data that reveal a series of wet and dry periods during the Last Glacial corresponding to rapid global climate shifts. Our rainfall‐sensitive stalagmite record captured changes of the tropical rain belt on various timescales and shows that this variability in rainfall is closely connected to changes in the strength of the ocean circulation. This suggests that the link between the ocean and the atmosphere is more robust than previously assumed. The comparison of our record with other rainfall‐sensitive records from Central America and the northern Caribbean allows for a detailed reconstruction of the spatial and temporal changes of the western tropical Atlantic rain belt. Key Points: Puerto Rican speleothem record documents multidecadal to millennial‐scale precipitation variability between 46.2 and 15.3 kaClimate proxies show a distinct rainfall response to abrupt North Atlantic climate change including Heinrich and Dansgaard/Oeschger eventsCompilation of regional precipitation records allows to reconstruct past changes in ITCZ patterns in the western tropical Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961-2010 and 1986-2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature. The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986-2010. Correlations between indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation ( AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Caribbean is a region that experiences a wide range of climatic hazards: tropical waves, tropical cyclones, frontal storms, convective thunderstorms, and meteorological drought. Despite the influence of all of these climatic hazards on the Caribbean region, one climatic hazard, tropical cyclones (including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes), dominates the hazards research and literature with little attention given to the other climatic hazards (non-tropical heavy rains, orographic precipitation, and meteorological drought). The purpose of this review article is to address such a bias in the literature by providing an overview of Caribbean climatic hazards not related to tropical cyclones (non-tropical storms, orographic precipitation, and meteorological drought) and discuss the potential impact of climate change upon these hazards. Because the impact of a future warm climate is not limited to tropical cyclones alone, mitigation and adaption efforts should strive to address the entire spectrum of Caribbean climatic hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Resuming earlier work, this study explores the circulation mechanisms of rainfall variations in Central America and the Caribbean during 1921-1986. Regarding interannual variability, correlation analysis shows as favourable for abundant rainfall in the region warm surface waters, low pressure, upward motion, and weak tradewinds on the Atlantic side and over the eastern Pacific enhanced southerlies and a northward displaced intertropical convergence zone. In the course of the twentieth century, the region experienced alternations between protracted and contrastingly extreme regimes of rainfall, from wet 1931-1938 to dry 1939-1947 to wet 1950-1956 to dry 1971-1978. Changes in circulation patterns from the dry to the wet regimes are in the sense of correlations in interannual variability, pattern changes being broadly inverse in the evolution from the wet to the dry regimes. The alternations between contrasting circulation and rainfall regimes are reflected in changing lake levels. The study exemplifies the information value of a novel circulation data set. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end-of-century (2071-2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra-American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid-summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present-day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present-day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now well understood that climate change has the potential to dramatically affect biodiversity, with effects on spatio-temporal distribution patterns, trophic relationships and survivorship. In the marine turtles, sex is determined by incubation temperature, such that warming temperatures could lead to a higher production of female hatchlings. By measuring nest temperature, and using a model to relate the incubation temperature to sex ratio, we estimate that Caribbean Colombian leatherback sea turtles currently produce approximately 92% female hatchlings. We modelled the relationship between incubation, sand and air temperature, and under all future climate change scenarios (0.4-6.0 °C warming over the next 100 years), complete feminization could occur, as soon as the next decade. However, male producing refugia exist in the periphery of smaller nests (0.7 °C cooler at the bottom than at the centre), within beaches (0.3 °C cooler in the vegetation line and inter-tidal zone) and between beaches (0.4 °C higher on dark beaches), and these natural refugia could be assigned preferential conservation status. However, there exists a need to develop strategies that may ameliorate deleterious effects of climate-induced temperature changes in the future. We experimentally shaded clutches using screening material, and found that it was effective in reducing nest temperature, producing a higher proportion of male hatchlings, without compromising the fitness or hatching success. Artificial shade in hatcheries is a very useful and simple tool in years or periods of high environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, this is only an emergency response to the severe impacts that will eventually have to be reversed if we are to guarantee the stability of the populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The architectural complexity of coral reefs is largely generated by reef-building corals, yet the effects of current regional-scale declines in coral cover on reef complexity are poorly understood. In particular, both the extent to which declines in coral cover lead to declines in complexity and the length of time it takes for reefs to collapse following coral mortality are unknown. Here we assess the extent of temporal and spatial covariation between coral cover and reef architectural complexity using a Caribbean-wide dataset of temporally replicated estimates spanning four decades. Both coral cover and architectural complexity have declined rapidly over time, with little evidence of a time-lag. However, annual rates of change in coral cover and complexity do not covary, and levels of complexity vary greatly among reefs with similar coral cover. These findings suggest that the stressors influencing Caribbean reefs are sufficiently severe and widespread to produce similar regional-scale declines in coral cover and reef complexity, even though reef architectural complexity is not a direct function of coral cover at local scales. Given that architectural complexity is not a simple function of coral cover, it is important that conservation monitoring and restoration give due consideration to both architecture and coral cover. This will help ensure that the ecosystem services supported by architectural complexity, such as nutrient recycling, dissipation of wave energy, fish production and diversity, are maintained and enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the climatology and the future climate change in the Caribbean region based on the global general circulation. A climatological analysis on climate variations in the Caribbean is presented, followed by discussion on climate change scenarios based on the findings from Parallel Climate Model (PCM). PCM is utilized to study the impact of the global anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentration on the Caribbean climate. Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), cloud formation and solar radiative interactions affect the volume and frequency of rainfall. A future warming is predicted to reach one degree Celsius, along with increase in rain fall during the wet season, and a possible increase in tropical storm in the region.

A climate change resulting from recent increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is supposed to occur sometime in the middle of the next century. This climate change induced by GHGs would be caused by radiative forcing through the greenhouse effect and would lead to global warming and eventually to sea-level rise. This paper presents a climate change scenario for the greater Caribbean as simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM). The CCC GCM projects a GHG induced temperature increase of about 2 0Cand more extreme rainfall conditions for the greater Caribbean. The climate records of temperature, rainfall and cloudiness for several stations on the island of Trinidad are then examined in an attempt to detect GHG climate change signals. The temperature change to date, close to 1 0C, and the fluctuations in rainfall patterns, over the lastfive decades, seem to be indicative of early greenhouse signals. ) 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]