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Glued laminated timber made from hardwood is a sustainable structural product that is currently gaining momentum due to climatic changes and afforestation policy. Diversities in hardwood species have led to a lack of a complete standard for the production of glued laminated timber from hardwood in Europe. This paper addresses hardwood species available in Croatian forests, namely Carpinus Betulus L. (European hornbeam), Quercus Cerris L. (Turkey oak), and Acer Campestre L. (Maple), in terms of their suitability for the production of glued laminated timber. The suitability is assessed by a multi‐criteria analysis with seven criteria. Visual and physical properties include density, the occurrence of knots, and grain deviation in lamellas. Mechanical properties include the bending strength, modulus of elasticity, and shear strength of glue lines. In order to obtain physical and mechanical properties, corresponding experimental research has been carried out. Production costs have been evaluated in collaboration with the manufacturer. Results indicate a very high potential of European hornbeam and Turkey oak for the production of glued laminated timber. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of permanent grasslands (PG) for the conservation of high nature value habitats is often acknowledged, their role in most of the main sustainable food system scenarios published in the last few years is less explicit. In the best case, the place of permanent grassland in scenarios and policy agendas is their conservation; in the worst one, they are simply replaced by afforested land or cropland, considered as a better option when the focus is on GHG emissions only. In this paper, we defend the idea that several misinterpretations of the positive and negative impacts of ruminants, the 'natural' users of PG, explain why ruminants are poorly addressed by most scenarios. Based on the findings of an agroecological scenario for Europe—TYFA, standing for Ten Years For Agroecology—in which extensive permanent grassland and ruminants together play a prominent role for biodiversity conservation, nitrogen cycling and climate change mitigation and adaptation, we call for a research agenda that would better inform the specific role of PG in the provision of ecosystem services—and in particular those that depend on nitrogen management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) are techniques used to downscale and/or bias‐correct climate model results to regional or local scales. The European network VALUE developed a framework to evaluate and inter‐compare SDMs. One of VALUE's experiments is the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis predictors to isolate downscaling skill. Most evaluation papers for SDMs employ simple statistical diagnostics and do not follow a process‐based rationale. Thus, in this paper, a process‐based evaluation has been conducted for the more than 40 participating model output statistics (MOS, mostly bias correction) and perfect prognosis (PP) methods, for temperature and precipitation at 86 weather stations across Europe. The SDMs are analysed following the so‐called "regime‐oriented" technique, focussing on relevant features of the atmospheric circulation at large to local scales. These features comprise the North Atlantic Oscillation, blocking and selected Lamb weather types and at local scales the bora wind and the western Iberian coastal‐low level jet. The representation of the local weather response to the selected features depends strongly on the method class. As expected, MOS is unable to generate process sensitivity when it is not simulated by the predictors (ERA‐Interim). Moreover, MOS often suffers from an inflation effect when a predictor is used for more than one station. The PP performance is very diverse and depends strongly on the implementation. Although conditioned on predictors that typically describe the large‐scale circulation, PP often fails in capturing the process sensitivity correctly. Stochastic generalized linear models supported by well‐chosen predictors show improved skill to represent the sensitivities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Expansion‐Contraction model has been used to explain the responses of species to climatic changes. During periods of unfavourable climatic conditions, species retreat to refugia from where they may later expand. This paper focuses on the palaeoecology of red deer over the past 54 ka across Europe and the Urals, to reveal patterns of change in their range and explore the role of environmental conditions in determining their distribution. Location: Europe and western Asia to 63°E. Taxon: Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Methods: We collected 984 records of radiocarbon‐dated red deer subfossils from the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, including 93 original dates. For each deer sample we compiled climatic and biome type data for the corresponding time intervals. Results: During the last 54 ka changes in red deer range in Europe and the Urals were asynchronous and differed between western and eastern Europe and western Asia due to different environmental conditions in those regions. The range of suitable areas for deer during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was larger than previously thought and covered vast regions not only in southern but also in western and eastern Europe. Throughout the period investigated the majority of specimens inhabited forests in the temperate climatic zone. The contribution of forests in deer localities significantly decreased during the last 4 ka, due to deforestation of Europe caused by humans. Mean January temperature was the main limiting factor for species distribution. Over 90% of the samples were found in areas where mean January temperature was above −10°C. Main conclusions: Red deer response to climatic oscillations are in agreement with the Expansion‐Contraction model but in contradiction to the statement of only the southernmost LGM refugia of the species. During the last 54 ka red deer occurred mostly in forests of the temperate climatic zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Poleward range shifts of species are among the most obvious effects of climate change on biodiversity. As a consequence of these range shifts, species communities are predicted to become increasingly composed of warm‐dwelling species, but this has only been studied for a limited number of taxa, mainly birds, butterflies and plants. As species groups may vary considerably in their adaptation to climate change, it is desirable to expand these studies to other groups, from different ecosystems. Freshwater macroinvertebrates, such as dragonflies (Odonata), have been ranked among the species groups with highest priority. In this paper, we investigate how the occurrence of dragonflies in Europe has changed in recent decades, and if these changes are in parallel with climate change. Location: Europe. Methods: We use data from 10 European geographical regions to calculate occupancy indices and trends for 99 (69%) of the European species. Next, we combine these regional indices to calculate European indices. To determine if changes in regional dragonfly communities in Europe reflect climatic warming, we calculate Species Temperature Indices (STI), Multi‐species Indicators (MSI) and Community Temperature Indices (CTI). Results: 55 of 99 considered species increased in occupancy at European level, 32 species remained stable, and none declined. Trends for 12 species are uncertain. MSI of cold‐dwelling and warm‐dwelling species differ in some of the regions, but increased at a similar rate at European level. CTI increased in all regions, except Cyprus. The European CTI increased slightly. Main conclusions: European dragonflies, in general, have expanded their distribution in response to climate change, even though their CTI lags behind the increase in temperature. Furthermore, dragonflies proved to be a suitable species group for monitoring changes in communities, both at regional and continental level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing season length (GSL) indices derived from surface air temperature are frequently used in climate monitoring applications. The widely used Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) definition aims to give a broadly applicable measure of the GSL that is indicative of the duration of the mild part of the year. In this paper long‐term trends in that index are compared with an alternative measure calculated using a time series decomposition technique (empirical ensemble mode decomposition [EEMD]). It is demonstrated that the ETCCDI index departs from the mild‐season definition as its start and end dates are determined by temperature events operating within the synoptic timescale; this raises the inter‐annual variance of the index. The EEMD‐derived index provides a less noisy and more realistic index of the GSL by filtering out the synoptic‐scale variance and capturing the annual‐cycle and longer timescale variability. Long‐term trends in the GSL are comparable between the two indices, with an average increase in length of around 5 days/decade observed for the period 1965–2016. However, the results using the EEMD index display a more coherent picture of significant trends than has been previously observed. Furthermore, the EEMD‐derived growing season parameters are more closely related to variations in seasonal‐mean hemispheric‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns, with around 57% of the inter‐annual variation in the start of the growing season being connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic patterns, and around 55% of variation in the end of the growing season being associated with East Atlantic/west Russia‐type patterns. Long‐term trends and inter‐annual variability of the thermal growing season length across Europe are compared by comparing two indices: the ETCCDI definition and a new index calculated using a time series decomposition technique (EEMD). Long‐term trends are comparable between the two indices. However, the EEMD index displays a much more coherent picture of significant trends than has been previously observed, and a much closer relationship to hemispheric modes of atmospheric circulation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper summarises materials on the mammal remains in northeastern Europe, dated by radiocarbon. Altogether, 23 local faunas of small mammals and 47 local faunas of large mammals were analysed. Multidimensional statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between changes in small mammal fauna composition and climate changes throughout time. The correlations with the spatial gradients, however, are less pronounced. The faunas are classified into three groups: (1) faunas of Holocene age; (2) Late Pleistocene 'stadial' assemblages; and (3) Late Pleistocene 'interstadial' assemblages. In some cases, changes in species abundance are better understood in terms of biotic interrelations rather than of climatic effects. The most pronounced change in small mammal fauna composition and structure occurred at the Preboreal/ Boreal boundary, and a less conspicuous alteration took place at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. The most noticeable transformation in the large mammal fauna composition is dated to the early Holocene. Less significant changes are observed at the Middle Weichselian/ LGM transition and at the LGM/Lateglacial transition. It is safely concluded that variations in the faunas of small and large mammals recorded in NE Europe during the last 35 000 years occurred synchronously and unidirectionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a changing climate, it is likely that precipitation patterns will experience shifts in amount and seasonality, with a tendency towards increased drought in many parts of Europe. In order to investigate what could be some of the feedbacks of dry conditions on temperature, this paper has investigated close to 30 European locations to assess the influence of observed dry summer days on daily maximum temperature ( Tmax) as well as a clustering of rainless days, and finally the temperature impact related to drought conditions as defined by the Standardized Precipitation Index. The results show that for the three main European climatic regions investigated ('Mediterranean', 'Maritime', 'Continental'), the influence of rainless days is discernible, with an average difference between mean summer Tmax and Tmax during rainless days only of up to 1.5 °C. A further aim of the study is to determine whether recent shifts in the occurrence of rainless days during the summer have a bearing on temperature trends. Results show that shifts in rainless days explain only a fraction of the observed temperature change at the locations studied, thereby hinting that the enhanced greenhouse effect remains the dominant mechanism for temperature change. Finally, using a regional climate model, very preliminary insight into a 'greenhouse climate' highlights the fact that changes in dry conditions seem to confirm the findings for current climate, i.e. they account for only a fraction of the increase in temperatures. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January-February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown copyright, the Met Office [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lichens are thought to be sensitive indicators of global warming, as the spread of several thermophilous epiphytes in north-western Central Europe has been attributed to late 20th century warming. In the present paper, the potential contribution of late 20th century warming to the decline of arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichen species is analyzed. Relevant ecological groups of lichens include terricolous heathland species, saxicolous species of exposed rock outcrops and boulder fields as well as epiphytes of mountain forests. These three groups of lichens experienced significant declines before the onset of late 20th century warming in the 1970s. These declines can be attributed to the abandonment of traditional land use systems in the case of the heathland lichens, increased recreational use of the exposed summits usually inhabited by cold-tolerant saxicolous lichens, and to high atmospheric SO2 levels in the mid-20th century, but are probably not directly connected to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus, and the partially migrant blackbird T. Merula. We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i. E. Mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Niño, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a probabilistic method of pollen spectra analysis. The method relies on a pollen taxon characterization using biotic and abiotic plant attribute modes, and their occurrence in a given pollen spectrum at a specific site. This type of analysis can provide an interpretation, which can lead to the reconstruction of the biome and, to an extent, of the abiotic conditions at the site.The analysis has been carried out at the European scale using data provided by the European Pollen Database for about 1000 sites. This dataset contains about 50,000 pollen spectra from the last 21 ka. In these spectra, each pollen taxon has been characterized by a set of 10 chosen attributes. These have been selected with regard to their relevance in biome reconstruction, but also on the basis of available literature. By using the probability of occurrence of each taxon in a given pollen spectrum, it is possible to calculate an affinity index for the spectrum to the attribute considered. To overcome difficulties caused by pollen identification in low diversified pollen spectra, a co-occurrence concept has been used to give more information.The method has been validated on a set of 1327 modern surface samples by comparing the results to the major climatic and environmental variables that control the distribution of the vegetation. A reconstruction exercise on various characteristics of the plants was then carried out on a 6-ka dataset. This confirmed previous studies by showing a strong dominance of deciduous forest over most of Europe, related to a milder climate than at present in the north and a wetter and colder climate than at present in the south. By analysing the change in pollen/seed dispersion strategies and the light requirement, we show that the history of vegetation dynamics in relation to human influences can be assessed using this method.Our results show that the probabilistic method is an objective tool for pollen assemblage analysis. It allows reconstruction of various characteristics of the vegetation at the continental and global scale for periods and sites with significantly different climate conditions. This method can also be used to compare maps of vegetation attributes for the validation of the new generalized dynamic ecosystems models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper summarizes recent research work on abrupt climatic changes and oscillations. The climatic system is viewed as a dissipative, highly non-linear system, under non-equilibrium conditions, and, as such, should be expected to have some unusual properties. These unusual properties include bifurcation points with marked instability just before the point, magnification of semi-periodic oscillations around bifurcation points, and variations in the strength of teleconnections with distance from equilibrium. These properties are discussed and illustrated for the climatic system using both the historical, Holocene and glacial climatic records. It is found that there are abrupt climatic changes and oscillations on all time-scales. The amplitudes and frequencies of climate variability and teleconnections are found to vary between different time periods. A number of persistent oscillations exist, particularly one about 1500 years, but their amplitudes vary considerably between time periods. The Holocene appears to be no more climatically benign than the similar period in the Eemian. The importance of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for generating abrupt climatic changes in Europe, particularly in association with sudden pulses of fresh water, is illustrated. The concept of antiphase temperature changes between the North and South Atlantic is discussed. Externally generated abrupt climatic deteriorations owing to explosive volcanic eruptions and variations in solar irradiance are also discussed. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SummaryUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]