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A small group of climate scientists and influencers have vigorously disputed the scientific consensus on climate change. They have contributed to a belief system that has impeded policy actions to reduce emissions. They accept that more CO2 in the atmosphere has consequences for the climate but strongly deny that the magnitude of the effect is significant. Using hourly CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, this article examines whether the hourly temperature data at the nearby Hilo International Airport support this belief. ARCH/ARMAX methods are employed because the hourly temperature data, even in Hawaii, are both highly autoregressive and volatile. The temperature data are analyzed using an archive of day‐ahead hourly weather forecast data to control for expected meteorological outcomes. The model is estimated using 42,928 hourly observations from August 7, 2009, through December 31, 2014. CO2 concentrations are found to have statistically significant implications for hourly temperature. The model is evaluated using hourly data from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2017. The findings add to the consilience of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Pacific Islands face unknown rates of future warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, but almost certain changing climate stresses. Continued global warming is projected to cause further changes to the mean conditions and variability of sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and sea surface height (SSH). Previous climate model simulations showed that the equatorial Pacific is likely to have greater increased rainfall, compared to elsewhere in the tropics. There is less certainty about future rainfall changes away from the equator, including around many of the numerous tropical Pacific Islands. Here, we assess the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐phase 6 (CMIP6) as it relates to future changes of SST, rainfall, and SSH in the tropical Pacific. Focus is on the island regions of Hawaii, Guam, and American Samoa, as well as the Niño 3.4 region. We consider two development narratives of the 21st century by assessing the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 experiments, and describe climate changes in the tropical Pacific relative to the recent historical conditions that are likely for either 1.5°C or 3°C of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming above preindustrial levels. Consistent with prior‐generation climate models, we find that future rainfall increases the most where SST warming is greatest, and also an overall increase of interannual variability associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affecting rainfall and SSH. We describe changes in SST, rainfall, and SSH for particular warming amounts, and make comparisons with time‐based climate assessments during the 21st century, which are relevant results toward better understanding uncertainty and supporting adaptation efforts in the tropical Pacific Islands. Plain Language Summary: We assess 21st century projected climate changes in the tropical Pacific using the latest generation of climate models that simulate Earth's response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Focus is on describing likely changes of rainfall, as well as sea surface temperature and height, for broad regions around Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and the other US‐affiliated Pacific Islands. Although it remains unknown how much global warming will occur, the climate models are unequivocal that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm this century. We constrain this uncertainty by quantifying climate changes for particular warming amounts, such as 1.5°C or 3°C of global warming relative to preindustrial conditions. The surface of both the Earth and the tropical Pacific, specifically, have already warmed by more than 0.5°C. However, it is unknown when the 1.5°C or 3°C global warming amounts will occur. Some uncertainty also remains about regional climate changes associated with the future warming, such as for rainfall around Hawaii and American Samoa, whereas there is more consensus among models about the future rainfall increasing near the equator as well as near Guam in the north‐western Pacific. Increasing equatorial rainfall is a consequence of that region projected to warm fastest and also suggests likely increasing climate variability affecting most tropical Pacific Islands. Key Points: CMIP6 projects increasing 21st‐century rainfall for the equatorial Pacific, and in a broad part of the tropical north‐western PacificRainfall changes are more uncertain for regions around many tropical Pacific Islands, such as Hawaii and American SamoaAssessing seasonal and interannual variability changes for particular warming amounts constrains uncertainty related to the global warming rate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate projections, particularly for the near‐term. Therefore, the next decades are of importance for regional impact studies and the development of regional adaptation plans. This article presents results from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations (years 1996–2005 and 2026–2035) that are used to examine the effects of both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on near‐term climate projections for the Hawaiian Islands. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE) is used in conjunction with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for downscaling. The climate responses to the PDO and anthropogenic forcing are isolated and analyzed separately. In response to anthropogenic forcing, significant increases in surface air temperature, of ∼0.8 K, are projected at low elevations. Stronger warming, of up to 1.3 K, is seen at higher elevation areas. Future climate simulations show significant increases in wet season rainfall, of ∼10%–20%, along the windward slopes of Big Island and Maui. Rainfall patterns during the positive PDO phase are projected to reverse in sign, leading to drier conditions, by ∼10%–30%, at many locations. Future climate simulations show daily rainfall extremes will increase, by up to ∼10%–15%, at many locations. Daily temperature extremes are also projected to increase significantly, by up to 1.4 K. Overall, results indicate that natural variability will continue to contribute to uncertainty in near‐term rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands, masking the forced signal. Plain Language Summary: This project studies how temperature and precipitation will change across the Hawaiian Islands in the near future due to human‐induced causes (e.g., burning coal and other fossil fuels). This is done by comparing climate model simulations for two 10‐year periods (1996–2005 vs. 2026–2035). Further, this research evaluates how natural climate variations affect Hawaiian climate. The main analysis concentrates on an important type of natural climate variability in the North Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This research implements dynamical downscaling, that is, a regional climate model is used to refine global climate model simulations in order to better capture the local weather patterns in Hawai'i. We find that land and ocean temperatures across the Hawaiian Islands region will become warmer due to human‐induced causes. We also find that rainfall will likely increase for some areas of Hawai'i, particularly the mountain slopes, posing an increased risk for flooding. The simulations reveal that natural climate variability will continue to contribute to near‐term climate variations in this region. While the natural climate variability limits our confidence in the projected rainfall changes, it is hoped that our findings will assist decision makers across the State of Hawai'i in creating climate adaptation plans. Key Points: Significant increases in near‐surface temperature and sea surface temperature are projected across the Hawaiian Islands regionSignificant increases in mean and extreme rainfall are projected for some areas of the islandsNatural decadal variability will continue to mask the forced signal in near‐term rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species with broad climatic ranges might be more vulnerable to climate change than previously appreciated due to intraspecific variation in climatic stress tolerance. In tropical forests, drought is increasingly frequent and severe, causing widespread declines and altering community dynamics. Yet, little is known about whether foundation tropical trees vary in drought tolerance throughout their distributions, and how intraspecific variation in drought tolerance might contribute to their vulnerability to climate change.We tested for local adaptation in seedling emergence and establishment with a full‐factorial reciprocal transplant experiment including 27 populations and 109,350 seeds along a 3,500 mm precipitation gradient for a widespread tropical foundation tree, Metrosideros polymorpha, in Hawaii. To more precisely relate seedling performance to soil moisture, we conducted a complementary greenhouse experiment to test responses of the same focal populations to simulated drought.In the reciprocal transplant experiment, we observed significant variation among populations and sites in germination and seedling establishment rates. Overall, there was a significant link between historical rainfall of populations and their performance under current rainfall at the study sites consistent with local adaptation. In particular, populations from historically wet sites demonstrated lower germination rates in currently dry sites compared to wet field sites, while populations from historically dry sites germinated well across all sites, with particularly high germination in dry sites. In the greenhouse, seedlings from wet populations survived fewer days without water, and succumbed at wetter soil conditions than populations from historically dry sites, corroborating results from the field experiment.Synthesis. While climate change models project the greatest drying trends for historically dry areas in Hawaii, even moderate drying of wet sites could significantly reduce Metrosideros polymorpha recruitment given the sensitivity of seedlings to very slight changes in water regimes. Thus, although M. polymorpha demonstrates high seedling drought tolerance in some populations, providing evidence of resilience at the species‐scale, there are nonetheless vulnerable populations that will likely decline under climate change. Our approach demonstrates that even trees with high dispersal abilities can show significant clines in drought tolerance, and suggests that similar intraspecific variation might be an important consideration for other tropical foundational tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Trends of annual maximum 1-day precipitation in three major Hawaiian Islands are investigated using a nonparametric Mann-Kendall method and Sen's test ( MKS). The records are from 24 stations on Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii, and the period of analysis ranges from 1960 to 2009. To complement the MKS method, a non-stationary three-parameter generalized extreme value ( GEV) distribution is also used to detect trends in precipitation extremes. Both methods demonstrate that negative trends prevail for Oahu and Maui but positive trends dominate the Island of Hawaii. The influence of the location and the scale parameter in the GEV model on different return levels (2-year, 20-year, and 100-year) are explicitly described. The return-level threshold values are found to change with time considerably. As a result, a rare storm with daily precipitation of 300 mm (20-year return period) in 1960 has become a rather common storm event (3-5-year return period) in 2009 on the Island of Hawaii. The opposite trend behavior in extreme events is observed on Oahu and Maui, where rainfall extremes have become less frequent in the last five decades. A positive relationship is found between the precipitation extremes and Southern Oscillation Index ( SOI), implying greater extreme events during La Niña years and the opposite for El Niño years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertidal zone of tropical islands is particularly poorly known. In contrast, temperate locations such as California's Monterey Bay are fairly well studied. However, even in these locations, studies have tended to focus on a few species or locations. Here we present the results of the first broadscale surveys of invertebrate, fish and algal species richness from a tropical island, Oahu, Hawaii, and a temperate mainland coast, Central California. Data were gathered through surveys of 10 sites in the early 1970s and again in the mid-1990s in San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties, California, and of nine sites in 2001-2005 on Oahu. Surveys were conducted in a similar manner allowing for a comparison between Oahu and Central California and, for California, a comparison between time periods 24 years apart. We report a previously undocumented richness of intertidal species in both locations: 516 for Oahu and 801 for Central California. Surprisingly, when differences in search efforts are controlled, overall (alpha) diversity appears to be similar between locations, although site level (beta) diversity is much higher in California. Species richness in California generally increased along a wave exposure gradient and distance from an urban area. Much higher numbers of both invasive and endemic species were found on Oahu. In California, more invertebrate species were found in the 1990s, likely due to an improvement in taxonomic resources since the 1970s, and species composition was different in the two surveys due to the high incidence of rare species. Although some southern species increased in number between the two time periods and some northern species decreased, we detected little evidence of change favoring southern or northern species. These results are in line with recent findings that water temperatures in the Monterey Bay have been in a cooling trend since the 1980s, in contrast to many locations elsewhere in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) in a mountainous Hawaii watershed was studied using the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). The hydrologic response of the watershed was simulated for 43 years for different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and + 6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5%, ±10% and ±20%) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under current, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. Vegetation leaf conductance and leaf area index were modified to reflect the increase in CO2 concentration. The relative departure of streamflow and ET from their levels during the reference scenarios was calculated on a monthly and annual basis. Results of this study indicate that the streamflow and ET are less sensitive to changes in temperature compared with changes in precipitation. However, temperature increase coupled with precipitation showed significant effect on ET and streamflow. Changes in leaf conductance and leaf area index with increasing CO2 concentration under A1F1 scenario had a significant effect on ET and subsequently on streamflow. Evapotranspiration is less sensitive than streamflow for a similar level of change in precipitation. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios, DHSVM predicted a change in ET by ±10% and streamflow between −51% and 90%. From the six ensemble mean scenarios for AR4 A1B, simulations suggest reduction in streamflow by 6.7% to 17.2%. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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While the Hawaiian Islands are experiencing long‐term warming, spatial and temporal patterns are poorly characterized. Drawing on daily temperature records from 309 stations (1905–2017), we explored relationships of surface air temperatures (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg, and diurnal temperature range) to atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface variables. Statistical modeling of spatial patterns (2006–2017) highlighted the strong negative influence of elevation and moisture on air temperature and the effects of distance inland, cloud frequency, wind speed, and the local trade wind inversion on the elevation dependence of surface air temperature. We developed time series of sea level air temperature and surface lapse rate by modeling surface air temperature as a simple function of elevation and found a strong long‐term (1905–2017) warming trend in sea level Tmin, twice that of Tmax (+0.17 vs +0.07°C/decade), suggesting regional warming, possibly enhanced by urbanization and cloud cover effects. Removing this trend, sea level Tmax and Tmin tracked SST and rainfall at decadal time scales, while Tmax increased with periods of weakened trade winds. Sea level air temperatures correlated with North Pacific climate indices, reflecting the influence of regional circulation via SST, rain, clouds, and trade winds that modulate environmental warming across the Hawaiian Islands. Increasing (steeper) Tmax surface lapse rates for the 0‐ to 1,600‐m elevation range (into the cloud zone) over 1978–2017 coincide with observations of marine boundary layer drying and rising cloud base heights, suggesting a need to better understand elevation‐dependent warming in this tropical/subtropical maritime environment and associated changes to cloud formation and persistence. Key Points: Surface air temperature spatial patterns of the Hawaiian Islands are determined by topography, vegetation, and local atmospheric conditionsNew sea level air temperature analysis reveals strong warming at night, while daytime temperatures vary with North Pacific climate modesIncreasing daytime surface lapse rates appear linked to atmospheric drying within the marine boundary layer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]