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The Pre‐Industrial climate model simulation is intended as an equilibrium control experiment that uses constant external forcing, yet in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL a distinct change in climate state occurs around year 500 of the 2000 year simulation. The global mean near surface air temperature increases by almost 0.5 K associated with a reduction in southern hemisphere sea ice area of almost 20%. Here we show this step change in the state of the climate to be a consequence of the onset of deep convection in the Weddell and Ross Sea gyres. The delayed onset of convection in the gyres is a consequence of a positive, downward, top‐of‐atmosphere radiative balance, and continual ocean heat up‐take during the model spin‐up and the initial pre‐industrial control simulation. Consequently, model spin‐up strategy should be revised to initialize pre‐industrial simulations that are in energy balance. Plain Language Summary: The Pre‐industrial control simulation of climate models is a reference for climate change simulations. Consequently it should simulate a stable climate. However, if the model is not in radiative equilibrium, the ocean continually accumulates heat, becoming unstable at high latitudes and generating large climate fluctuations. This results in a control simulation that is not a steady state. Consequently the methodologies used to initialize and formulate climate models should be revised to ensure a steady state is achieved. Key Points: The long timescales associated with deep ocean heat uptake suggests simulations may not be equilibriated before forcing is perturbedSouthern Ocean venting of heat reduces sea ice cover and increases global mean temperature, leading to a warmer climate stateNet top‐of‐atmosphere energy imbalance can have implications for the methodologies used for climate model spin‐up [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and a long legacy of fire suppression are leading to an increased prevalence of 'mega‐disturbances' such as drought and wildfire in terrestrial ecosystems. Evidence for the immediate effects of these novel disturbances on wildlife is accumulating, but little information exists on longer term impacts to species and ecosystems. We studied the occurrence dynamics of an iconic old‐forest species, the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis), on a long‐term study area in the Sierra Nevada, CA, USA from 1989 to 2020 to evaluate their multi‐scale population response following a 2014 megafire (the 'King' Fire) that affected a portion of our study area. We found that extensive severe fire within spotted owl sites resulted in both immediate site abandonment and prolonged lack of re‐colonization by owls six years post‐fire. Sites that experienced high pyrodiversity – a mosaic of burn severities – were more likely to persist after the fire, but this effect was only apparent at finer spatial scales. A potentially confounding factor, post‐fire salvage logging, did not explain variability in the probability of either owls persisting at sites or sites becoming re‐colonized; effects could be attributed only to severe fire extent and pyrodiversity. Our study demonstrates the prolonged effects of severe fire on the occupancy of this forest‐dependent species, suggesting that forest restoration that reduces megafires could benefit spotted owls. Our work emphasizes that long‐term monitoring can offer surprising learning opportunities and provide unparalleled value for understanding and addressing emerging environmental concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the impacts of anthropogenic climate change can displace species into more favourable climates. Semi‐arid desert specialists, such as the sandhill dunnart, Sminthopsis psammophila, are typically susceptible to rainfall deficits, wildfires and extreme temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change. We first used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current distribution of S. psammophila. Between 2016 and 2018, we ground validated the model's predictions throughout Western Australia, confirming S. psammophila in 18 locations in which it was predicted to occur. The predicted distribution of S. psammophila appears mostly constrained to within its known range. However, S. psammophila was verified 150 km north of its range in Western Australia and connectivity between the South Australian populations was correctly predicted. In 2019, we used updated occurrence data to project SDMs for S. psammophila during the mid‐Holocene, present day and under two future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP 4.5 (an optimistic emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 ("business as usual") for 2050 and 2070. By 2050 (RCP 8.5), almost all Western Australian Great Victoria Desert (WAGVD) habitat is predicted to be unsuitable for S. psammophila. By 2070 (RCP 8.5), the climates of the WAGVD and Yellabinna Regional Reserve populations are predicted to become unsuitable, and the species' geographical range is predicted to contract in Australia by 80%. However, the 2070 (RCP 4.5) scenario predicts that this contraction could be halved. As a sandy desert specialist, the distribution of S. psammophila is geographically limited at its southern bounds due to the cessation of suitable spinifex (Triodia spp.) habitats, and so further extension of the range southwards is not possible. Sympatric desert species may be similarly affected, and we suggest that SDMs will be a useful tool in helping to predict the effects of climate change on their distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grapevine varietal suitability is strongly linked to regional environmental conditions and growers tend to select varieties that are best suited to these conditions. A high agreement between current growing regions and optimal climatic zones is thus anticipated for a given variety. A changing climate is, however, expected to impose new challenges to this long-term varietal selection. The present research examines the spatial distribution of the main grapevine varieties in Portugal, establishing current and future optimal climatic zones for each variety. The spatial locations of 44 varieties are assessed, and their growing degree-day (GDD) requirements are computed using a high resolution climatic dataset (<1 km). A clustering methodology is applied to the spatial patterns of the optimal GDD of each variety, leading to three varietal groupings (early, intermediate and late). Future changes (2041-2060) in those patterns are then analysed using a 17 model-ensemble and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Results indicate that Portuguese varieties have high adaptability, because they are grown over a large range of thermal conditions. Although the three clusters provide a good agreement with the current growth conditions, a strong warming trend is projected in the future, resulting in projections of a northward shift and move to higher elevations for the cluster patterns. Hence, other European regions may experience improved growing conditions for the settlement of these Portuguese varieties. Nonetheless, future varietal selection will heavily depend on the interest of winemakers and global market policies for the production of specific wines. Adaptation measures may indeed be required for maintaining the current varietal distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical coral reef teleosts are exclusively ectotherms and their capacity for physical and physiological performance is therefore directly influenced by ambient temperature. This study examined the effect of increased water temperature to 3 °C above ambient on the swimming and metabolic performance of 10 species of damselfishes (Pomacentridae) representing evolutionary lineages from two subfamilies and four genera. Five distinct performance measures were tested: (a) maximum swimming speed ( Ucrit), (b) gait-transition speed (the speed at which they change from strictly pectoral to pectoral-and-caudal swimming, Up−c), (c) maximum aerobic metabolic rate (MO2−MAX), (d) resting metabolic rate (MO2−REST), and (e) aerobic scope (ratio of MO2−MAX to MO2−REST, ASC). Relative to the control (29 °C), increased temperature (32 °C) had a significant negative effect across all performance measures examined, with the magnitude of the effect varying greatly among closely related species and genera. Specifically, five species spanning three genera ( Dascyllus, Neopomacentrus and Pomacentrus) showed severe reductions in swimming performance with Ucrit reduced in these species by 21.3-27.9% and Up−c by 32.6-51.3%. Furthermore, five species spanning all four genera showed significant reductions in metabolic performance with aerobic scope reduced by 24.3-64.9%. Comparisons of remaining performance capacities with field conditions indicate that 32 °C water temperatures will leave multiple species with less swimming capacity than required to overcome the water flows commonly found in their respective coral reef habitats. Consequently, unless adaptation is possible, significant loss of species may occur if ocean warming of ≥3 °C arises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passive open-top devices have been proposed as a method to experimentally increase temperature in high-latitude ecosystems. There is, however, little documentation on the efficacy of these devices. This paper examines the performance of four open-top chambers for altering temperature at six sites in the Arctic and Antarctica. Most of the heating effect was due to daytime warming above ambient; occasional night-time cooling below ambient, especially of air temperatures, depressed mean daily temperature. The mean daily temperatures at four arctic sites were generally increased by 1.2--1.8 deg.C; but occasionally, temperature depressions also occurred. Under optimal conditions at theantarctic site (dry soils, no vegetation, high radiation) mean dailysoil temperatures were increased by + 2.2 deg.C (-10 cm) to + 5.2 deg.C (0 cm). Protection from wind may play a more important role than temperature per se in providing a favourable environment for plant growth within opentop devices. Wind speed had a generally negative impact on mean daily temperature. Daily global radiation was both positively and negatively related to chamber temperature response. The effect of chambers on snow accumulation was variable with the Alexandra Fjord site showing an increased accumulation in chambers but no difference in the date of snowmelt, while at Latnjajaure in a deep snowfall site, snowmelt occurred 1--2 weeks earlier in chambers, potentially increasing the growing season. Selection of a passive temperature-enhancing system requires balancing the temperature enhancement desired against potential unwanted ecological effects such as chamber overheating and altered light, moisture, and wind. In general, the more closed the temperature-enhancing system, the higher is the temperature enhancement, but the larger are the unwanted ecological effects. Open-top chambers alter temperature significantly and minimize most unwantedecological effects; as a consequence, these chambers are a useful tool [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]