1. Process Controls on Flood Seasonality in Brazil.
- Author
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Chagas, Vinícius B. P., Chaffe, Pedro L. B., and Blöschl, Günter
- Subjects
FLOOD control ,CLIMATE change prevention ,SOIL moisture ,FLOOD forecasting ,UNDERGROUND storage ,FLOODS - Abstract
A coincidence in the timing of floods and their drivers can be used as a proxy for the causality of flood generation. Here, we investigate the relationship between the seasonality of floods, maximum annual rainfall, and maximum annual soil moisture data of 886 basins in Brazil for 1980–2015 to shed light on process controls of flood generation. Floods tend to occur at the same time of year as soil moisture peaks and lag behind rainfall peaks by 3 weeks. In Amazonia, central and northern Brazil, flood timing is more correlated with the timing of soil moisture peaks than with that of rainfall peaks, which is interpreted as resulting from high subsurface water storage capacities. In southern and southeastern Brazil, on the other hand, flood timing is highly correlated with both soil moisture and rainfall because of low subsurface water storage capacities. These findings can support flood forecasting and climate impact studies. Plain Language Summary: In warm regions, floods are usually generated by a combination of intense rainfall and wet soils. In this paper, we analyze the average timing within the year of floods, extreme rainfall, and soil moisture to elucidate how floods come about in the main Brazilian rivers. We find that in some regions, such as Amazonia and central Brazil, floods tend to occur when soils are wet. In other regions, such as southern Brazil, floods tend to occur when rainfall is most extreme. We believe that these differences are related to differences in the soil water storage capacity. The understanding of the regional importance of each of these components helps increase the efficiency of flood prevention measures and climate change adaptation. Key Points: Flood peaks tend to occur at the same time of year as annual soil moisture peaks and lag behind annual rainfall peaks by 3 weeksFlood seasonality is linked mainly with soil moisture peaks in Amazonia and central Brazil, where soil storage capacity is highFlood timing is highly correlated with rainfall and soil moisture peaks in the south and southeast, where soil storage capacity is low [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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