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Shifts in the timing of life history events have become an important source of information about how organisms are responding to climate change. Phenological data have generally been treated as purely temporal, with scant attention to the inherent spatial aspects of such data. However, phenological data are tied to a specific location, and considerations of sampling design, both over space and through time, can critically affect the patterns that emerge. Focusing on flowering phenology, we describe how purely spatial shifts, such as adding new study plots, or the colonization of a study plot by a new species, can masquerade as temporal shifts. Such shifts can look like responses to climate change but are not. Furthermore, the same aggregate phenological curves can be composed of individuals with either very different or very similar phenologies. We conclude with a set of recommendations to avoid ambiguities arising from the spatiotemporal duality of phenological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change-induced shifts in flowering phenology can expose plants to novel biotic and abiotic environments, potentially leading to decreased temporal overlap with pollinators and exposure to conditions that negatively affect fruit and seed set. We explored the relationship between flowering phenology and reproductive output in the common shrub pointleaf manzanita Arctostaphylos pungens in a lower montane habitat in southeastern Arizona, USA. Contrary to the pattern of progressively earlier flowering observed in many species, long-term records show that A. pungens flowering onset is shifting later and the flowering season is being compressed. This species can thus provide unusual insight into the effects of altered phenology. To determine the consequences of among- and within-plant variation in flowering time, we documented individual flowering schedules and followed the fates of flowers on over 50 plants throughout two seasons (2012 and 2013). We also measured visitation rates by potential pollinators in 2012, as well as both fruit mass and seeds per fruit of flowers produced at different times. Fruit set was positively related to visitation rate but declined with later dates of flower production in both years. Total fruit production per plant was positively influenced by flowering duration, which declined with later flowering onset, as did fruit mass. Individual flowering schedules were consistent between years, suggesting that plants that begin flowering late have lower reproductive output each year. These patterns suggest that if pointleaf manzanita flowering continues to shift later, its flowering season may continue to become shorter, compressing floral resource availability for pollinators and leading to reduced reproductive output. These results reveal the negative effects of delayed phenology on reproductive output in a long-lived plant. They highlight the value of using natural variation in flowering time, in combination with long-term data, to anticipate the consequences of phenological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earlier flowering times exhibited by many plant species are a conspicuous sign of climate change. Altered phenologies have caused concern that species could suffer population declines if they flower at times when effective pollinators are unavailable. For two perennial wildflowers, Tradescantia ohiensis and Asclepias incarnata, we used an experimental approach to explore how changing phenology affects the taxonomic composition of the pollinator assemblage and the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa. After finding in the previous year that fruit set varied with flowering time, we manipulated flowering onset in greenhouses, placed plants in the field over the span of five weeks, and measured pollinator effectiveness as the number of seeds produced after a single visit to a flower. The average effectiveness of pollinators and the expected rates of pollination success were lower for plants of both species flowering earlier than for plants flowering at historical times, suggesting there could be reproductive costs to earlier flowering. Whereas for A. incarnata, differences in average seed set among weeks were due primarily to changes in the composition of the pollinator assemblage, the differences for T. ohiensis were driven by the combined effects of compositional changes and increases over time in the effectiveness of some pollinator taxa. Both species face the possibility of temporal mismatch between the availability of the most effective pollinators and the onset of flowering, and changes in the effectiveness of individual pollinator taxa through time may add an unexpected element to the reproductive consequences of such mismatches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]