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Dispersal emerges as a consequence of how an individual's phenotype interacts with the environment. Not all dispersing individuals have the same phenotype, and variation among individuals can generate complex variation in the distribution of dispersal distances and directions. While active locomotion performance is an obvious candidate for a dispersal phenotype, its effects on dispersal are difficult to measure or predict, especially in small organisms dispersing in wind or currents. Therefore, we analyzed the effects of larval swimming on dispersal and settlement of coral‐reef fish larvae using a high‐resolution biophysical model. The model is, to date, the only biophysical model of marine larval dispersal that has been statistically validated against genetic parentage estimates of larval origin and destination, and incorporates empirically‐estimated larval behaviors and their ontogeny. Larval swimming, in combination with depth, orientation and navigation behaviors, actually reduced dispersal distances compared to those of passive larvae. Swimming had no consistent effects on long distance dispersal, but increased the spread of settlement locations. Swimming speed, in contrast, did not consistently affect median dispersal distances, but faster swimming larvae had greater mean and maximum dispersal distances than slower swimming larvae. Finally, faster larval swimming speeds consistently increased the probability of settlement. Our analysis shows how larval swimming differentially affects multiple properties of dispersal kernels. In doing so, it indicates how selection could favor faster larval swimming to increase settlement and local retention, which may actually result in longer dispersal distances as a by‐product of larvae trying to locate habitat rather than to disperse greater distances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly integrated into fishery management for coastal systems. Size and spacing rules (SSRs) have been proposed as simple MPA design guidelines, especially in regions where population connectivity data are limited. We assessed whether SSRs allow managers to design effective MPA networks under spatiotemporally varying dispersal patterns using a spatially realistic population model parameterized for a commercially‐exploited fish species on the Great Barrier Reef. SSRs are used to design MPA networks, and population simulations are used to measure the mean and variance of the resulting population size and fishery catch. We show that SSR performance is contingent on the extent of the MPA network, and whether species’ connectivity data can be used to target areas for protection. For example, in the absence of connectivity data, a “many small” MPAs rule provides the least variable management outcome. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that the performance and usefulness of size and spacing rules (SSRs) as guidelines for marine protected areas (MPAs) depend on the level of knowledge about larval dispersal, as well as the level of current exploitation in the fishery. These context‐dependent results offer particularly relevant guidance to future MPA design projects in regions with limited connectivity data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding larval connectivity patterns in exploited fishes is a fundamental prerequisite for developing effective management strategies and assessing the vulnerability of a fishery to recruitment overfishing and localised extinction. To date, however, researchers have not considered how regional variations in fishing pressure also influence recruitment.We used genetic parentage analyses and modelling to infer the dispersal patterns of bumphead parrotfish Bolbometopon muricatum larvae in the Kia fishing grounds, Isabel Province, Solomon Islands. We then extrapolated our Kia dispersal model to a regional scale by mapping the available nursery and adult habitat for B. muricatum in six regions in the western Solomon Islands, and estimated the relative abundance of adult B. muricatum populations in each of these regions based on available adult habitat and historical and current fishing pressure.Parentage analysis identified 67 juveniles that were the offspring of parents sampled in the Kia fishing grounds. A fitted larval dispersal kernel predicted that 50% of larvae settled within 30 km of their parents, and 95% settled within 85 km of their parents. After accounting for unsampled adults, our model predicted that 34% of recruitment to the Kia fishery was spawned locally. Extrapolating the spatial resolution of the model revealed that a high proportion of the larvae recruiting into the Kia fishing grounds came from nearby regions that had abundant adult populations. Other islands in the archipelago provided few recruits to the Kia fishing grounds, reflecting the greater distances to these islands and lower adult abundances in some regions.Synthesis and applications. This study shows how recruitment into a coral reef fishery is influenced by larval dispersal patterns and regional variations in historical fishing pressure. The scales of larval connectivity observed for bumphead parrotfish indicate that recruitment overfishing is unlikely if there are lightly exploited reefs up to 85 km away from a heavily fished region, and that small (<1 km2) marine‐protected areas (MPAs) are insufficient to protect this species. We recommend greater efforts to understand the interactions between larval dispersal and gradients of fishing pressure, as this will enable the development of tailored fisheries management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large‐scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas ( MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. Location The Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. Methods Using an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. Results We show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusions Climate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]