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Elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) generally increases carbon input in rice paddy soils and stimulates the growth of methane‐producing microorganisms. Therefore, eCO2 is widely expected to increase methane (CH4) emissions from rice agriculture, a major source of anthropogenic CH4. Agricultural practices strongly affect CH4 emissions from rice paddies as well, but whether these practices modulate effects of eCO2 is unclear. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments and meta‐analyses, that whereas eCO2 strongly increased CH4 emissions from paddies without straw incorporation, it tended to reduce CH4 emissions from paddy soils with straw incorporation. Our experiments also identified the microbial processes underlying these results: eCO2 increased methane‐consuming microorganisms more strongly in soils with straw incorporation than in soils without straw, with the opposite pattern for methane‐producing microorganisms. Accounting for the interaction between CO2 and straw management, we estimate that eCO2 increases global CH4 emissions from rice paddies by 3.7%, an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Our results suggest that the effect of eCO2 on CH4 emissions from rice paddies is smaller than previously thought and underline the need for judicious agricultural management to curb future CH4 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice is a staple food for nearly half of the world's population, but rice paddies constitute a major source of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Root exudates from growing rice plants are an important substrate for methane‐producing microorganisms. Therefore, breeding efforts optimizing rice plant photosynthate allocation to grains, i.e., increasing harvest index (HI), are widely expected to reduce CH4 emissions with higher yield. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments, meta‐analyses and an expert survey, that the potential of CH4 mitigation from rice paddies through HI improvement is in fact small. Whereas HI improvement reduced CH4 emissions under continuously flooded (CF) irrigation, it did not affect CH4 emissions in systems with intermittent irrigation (II). We estimate that future plant breeding efforts aimed at HI improvement to the theoretical maximum value will reduce CH4 emissions in CF systems by 4.4%. However, CF systems currently make up only a small fraction of the total rice growing area (i.e., 27% of the Chinese rice paddy area). Thus, to achieve substantial CH4 mitigation from rice agriculture, alternative plant breeding strategies may be needed, along with alternative management. Breeding efforts optimizing photosynthate allocation to grains, i.e., increasing harvest index (HI), are widely expected to reduce CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments, meta‐analyses, and an expert assessment, that the potential of CH4 mitigation from rice paddies through HI improvement is actually small. We estimate that future HI improvement will reduce CH4 emissions in continuously flooded systems (CF) by 4.4% at most. Furthermore, HI improvement did not affect CH4 emissions in systems with intermittent irrigation (II); these systems make up a large part of the China's rice growing area and are becoming increasingly popular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]