1. Length of Day Variations Explained in a Bayesian Framework.
- Author
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Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa, Noir, Jérõme, Mishra, Siddhartha, and Soja, Benedikt
- Subjects
GLACIAL isostasy ,EARTH'S core ,LUNAR occultations ,LUNAR eclipses ,GLACIAL Epoch - Abstract
Length of Day (LOD) observations in the range 720 BCE to 2020—derived from lunar occultation and eclipse records—feature a secular trend and various long‐period fluctuations. While recent estimates show that the secular trend is caused by the combination of lunar tidal friction and glacial isostatic adjustment, the causes of long‐period fluctuations remain ambiguous. We first compute the climatic effects and show that they are anti‐correlated with the observed fluctuations and their amplitude is ∼ ${\sim} $10 smaller. Then, we focus on core dynamics and solve for simplified equations of magnetohydrodynamics, namely tangential geostrophy, using Bayesian Physics‐Informed Neural Networks (BPINNs) and independent archeomagnetic and modern geomagnetic observations. Within the observation and reconstruction uncertainty we can reconcile the LOD observations with reconstructions of BPINNs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that LOD variations reconstructed by dynamics of Magneto‐Archimedes‐Coriolis waves do not explain the observed fluctuations. These results have considerable implications for internal and external geodynamics. Plain Language Summary: The Length of Day (LOD) is variable over time, deviating from its nominal value of 86,400 s. In the available observational period—720 BCE to 2020—LOD features decadal and millennial fluctuations, as well as a secular trend. Recent studies have shown that the secular trend is caused by a combination of (a) Moon's gravitational pulling on the Earth and subsequent energy dissipation mainly in the Earth's oceans, and (b) solid Earth rebound due to the Earth's adjustment after the termination of the last ice age. The causes of fluctuations are not known precisely. One possibility is that they are driven by climatic oscillations in the past three thousand years, which we discount here, however, on the grounds that they are anti‐correlated with and too small to account for the observed fluctuations. We then show that these fluctuations can be explained—within the uncertainty—by Bayesian physics‐informed neural networks based on simple principles of Earth's core magnetohydrodynamics, and independent archeomagnetic and more modern geomagnetic observations. Key Points: We analyze the variations in Length of Day (LOD) in the range 720 BCE to 2020 using Bayesian Physics‐Informed Neural Networks (BPINNs)We use simplified equations of magnetohydrodynamics to represent the core surface flow and archeomagnetic and modern geomagnetic dataWe show that the LOD reconstructed by BPINNs can be reconciled with observations within the observational uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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