Search

Atmospheric inversions provide estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between the surface and atmosphere based on atmospheric CO2 concentration observations. The number of CO2 observations is projected to increase severalfold in the next decades from expanding in situ networks and next‐generation CO2‐observing satellites, providing both an opportunity and a challenge for inversions. This study introduces the TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) system, which employ an ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation (ESSPE) approach to enable the assimilation of large volumes of observations for constraining CO2 flux parameters. TRACE uses an online full‐physics mesoscale atmospheric model and assimilates observations serially in a coupled atmosphere–carbon ensemble Kalman filter. The data assimilation system was tested in a series of observing system simulation experiments using in situ observations for a regional domain over North America in summer. Under ideal conditions with known prior flux parameter error covariances, TRACE reduced the error in domain‐integrated monthly CO2 fluxes by about 97% relative to the prior flux errors. In a more realistic scenario with unknown prior flux error statistics, the corresponding relative error reductions ranged from 80.6% to 88.5% depending on the specification of prior flux parameter error correlations. For regionally integrated fluxes on a spatial scale of 106 km2, the sum of absolute errors was reduced by 34.5%–50.9% relative to the prior flux errors. Moreover, TRACE produced posterior uncertainty estimates that were consistent with the true errors. These initial experiments show that the ESSPE approach in TRACE provides a promising method for advancing CO2 inversion techniques. Plain Language Summary: To gain a better understanding of the main drivers behind atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations and trends, it is essential to accurately quantify CO2 exchanges—also known as fluxes—between the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system. It is generally not possible to directly measure surface CO2 fluxes at regional scales; however, fluxes can be inferred from a network of atmospheric CO2 concentration observations combined with atmospheric modeling and inversion methods, which seek to find the most likely fluxes given prior knowledge and observational evidence. This paper presents a new regional inversion framework called TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) for deriving CO2 fluxes at high resolution in space and time. One of the major innovations in TRACE is the ensemble‐based dual state and parameter estimation approach, which makes it computationally feasible to ingest large volumes of observations into the system. A series of experiments were carried out in a domain over North America to test the new framework in a controlled setting. In the experiments, we used synthetic tower observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to constrain parameters controlling terrestrial biogenic and oceanic CO2 fluxes. The results show that TRACE is capable of accurately estimating both the magnitude and spatial pattern of regional CO2 fluxes. Key Points: An ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation approach is introduced for regional CO2 flux inversionsThe new dual‐state TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) framework provides a flexible platform for conducting coupled atmosphere–carbon data assimilationControlled experiments show that TRACE is effective at constraining regional CO2 fluxes using in situ CO2 concentration observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves. Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future sea‐level rise. This is due to our limited understanding of drivers and mechanisms triggering tipping points in ice‐sheet instability, and knowledge gaps regarding the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves. Understanding processes leading to ice shelf destabilization is critical to improving estimates of future Antarctic mass loss because of their important role in stabilizing ice flow. We studied Larsen C Ice Shelf changes using satellite data collected over 1963–2020, and conducted modeling experiments to elucidate the observed linkages between front retreat, flow acceleration, and rifts. We find the development of rifts near ice rises to be an important control on Larsen C front calving and flow acceleration in the past six decades. Rifts can affect each other by causing mechanical weakening and modifying stress fields. To predict future dynamical changes, it is necessary to account for this feedback and capture how ice rigidity changes over time in response to rift growth. If Larsen C retreats to the extent that the compressive arch ceases to exist, it will resemble the precollapsed Larsen B ice shelf, producing widespread flow accelerations in response to the backstress loss from ice rises. Key Points: Multidecadal satellite images and ice shelf modeling experiments were used to examine dynamic changes of Larsen C during 1963–2020Rift development near ice rises is an important control on ice shelf retreat and flow acceleration before the compressive arch is reachedCapturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity is needed to make realistic simulations of future ice shelf change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional‐scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow‐dependent transport errors. During a 1‐month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3‐hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column‐averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems. Plain Language Summary: Accurate estimates of regional‐scale CO2 surface fluxes are essential to improve our understanding of the carbon cycle and to verify human CO2 emission inventories. CO2 surface fluxes can be inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements through inversion methods, which use atmospheric transport models to relate CO2 concentration to fluxes. However, previous studies have shown that inversion results can be sensitive to errors in the simulated atmospheric transport. To better understand how to account for such transport errors, we characterize the uncertainties in simulated CO2 concentration due to uncertainties in atmospheric transport by running an ensemble of perturbed transport simulations in a regional atmospheric model. Our results show that CO2 uncertainties due to transport uncertainties are about half the magnitude as uncertainties due to erroneous CO2 surface fluxes while displaying similar spatial and temporal patterns. Transport uncertainties are reduced when CO2 is time averaged, but at the same time the influence of uncertainties in the CO2 background concentration is increased at longer timescales. Thus, the flux signals in regional inversions are degraded by transport errors and CO2 background errors at different timescales, and it is imperative to properly account for these errors to obtain reliable regional‐scale CO2 flux estimates. Key Points: We quantify CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields at the regional scale and submonthly timescalesAtmospheric CO2 estimates that are strongly influenced by CO2 surface fluxes tend to also have large transport uncertaintiesThe signal‐to‐noise ratio in in situ CO2 is limited by transport errors at subweekly timescales and CO2 background errors at longer scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphere from regional and teleseismic Rayleigh waves recorded by the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network supplemented with observations from several temporary seismic deployments. To construct Rayleigh wave group velocity maps, we integrated signals from regional and teleseismic earthquakes with several years of ambient seismic noise and used the dispersion to constrain crustal and upper‐mantle seismic shear wave velocity structure. Specifically, we used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to estimate 3‐D shear wave velocities beneath Greenland to a depth of 200 km. Our model reveals four prominent anomalies: a deep high‐velocity feature extending from southwestern to northwestern Greenland that may be the signature of a thick cratonic keel, a corridor of relatively low upper‐mantle velocity across central Greenland that could be associated with lithospheric modification from the passage of the Iceland plume beneath Greenland or interpreted as a tectonic boundary between cratonic blocks, an upper‐crustal southwest‐northeast trending boundary separating Greenland into two regions of contrasting tectonic and crustal properties, and a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath northeastern Greenland. The nature of this midcrustal anomaly is of particular interest given that it underlies the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and raises interesting questions regarding how deeper processes may impact the ice stream dynamics and the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points: We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphereOur model provides new constraints on the location of the Iceland plume track beneath GreenlandWe find evidence for a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gentoso, M. J., Evenson, E. B., Kodama, K. P., Iverson, N. R., Alley, R. B., Berti, C. & Kozlowski, A. 2012 (January): Exploring till bed kinematics using AMS magnetic fabrics and pebble fabrics: the Weedsport drumlin field, New York State, USA. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 31-41. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00221.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Thick, relatively homogeneous basal tills exposed in the drumlins and flutes of the Weedsport drumlin and flute field in New York State exhibit anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and pebble fabrics that are consistently oriented parallel to the streamlined bedforms. The pebble fabrics and AMS fabrics are concordant. In this study, six drumlins and five flutes were sampled. Thermally induced, incremental reduction of isothermal remanent magnetization indicates that AMS is caused by primarily elongate maghaemite grains. The orientations of principal axes of maximum susceptibility ( k1) are generally parallel to pebble long-axis orientations, and tend to plunge mildly up-glacier. Fabric directions are generally parallel to drumlin long-axis orientations, but deviate by 12°-23° from flute directions. Fabrics of the flutes are stronger and more unidirectional than those of the drumlins. These results support the use of AMS as a fast and objective method for characterizing fabrics in tills, and suggest hypotheses about basal processes linked to glacially streamlined landforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larson, G.J., Lawson, D.E., Evenson, E.B., Knudsen, Ó., Alley, R.B. & Phanikumar, M.S. 2010: Origin of stratified basal ice in outlet glaciers of Vatnajökull and Öræfajökull, Iceland. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 457–470. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00134.x. ISSN 0300-9483. During the period 2000–2005, we collected samples of englacial ice, vent water, frazil/anchor ice and stratified basal ice from warm-based outlet glaciers of Vatnajökull and Öræfajökull, Iceland, and analysed them for 3H, 18O and D. Results of 3H analyses show that the stratified basal ice contains 3H from atmospheric thermonuclear testing and is younger than the englacial ice. Results of the 18O and D analyses show that frazil/anchor and stratified basal ice are both enriched by an average of 2.4‰ in 18O and 11‰ in D relative to vent water. These values are consistent with fractionation during partial freezing of supercooled subglacial water in an open system, one in which the remaining water is continuously removed and replenished by water of similar composition. The isotopic data and field observations do not support either a regelation or a thermal ad-freeze-on origin for the stratified basal ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microstructural analysis of glacial deposits has recently been used as a research tool to determine sediment genesis. However, the occurrence of microstructures in deposits of known origin has not been sufficiently documented, hindering our ability to confidently interpret microstructures in sediments of unknown origin. Our objective is to present a calibration study of microstructures of recent sediment flow deposits and associated sediments from the Matanuska Glacier, Alaska, and to evaluate the degree of commonality with microstructures found in subglacially deformed sediments. Microstructures in sediment flow deposits can be formed as a result of sediment transport, deposition, and/or post-depositional processes, and are related to the viscosity regime of the source flow. Characteristic microstructures formed during brittle deformation include shears, faults, and brecciation; microstructures formed during ductile deformation include folds, pressure shadows, re-orientation of clasts around a 'core' stone, fine laminations, basal shear zones, imbrication, and flow fabrics. Other microstructures include fluid escape and injection structures, clast haloes, and fissility. The results of our comparison suggest that sediment flow deposits share many microstructures in common with subglacially deformed sediments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]