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Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren‐ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space‐use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter‐annual shifts in their calving and post‐calving distributions across the U.S.–Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space‐use, and then projected future distributions based on climate‐driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale‐dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post‐calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space‐use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post‐calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space‐use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how species respond to environmental conditions can assist with conservation strategies and harvest management, especially in arctic and boreal regions that are experiencing rapid climate change. Although climatic influences on species distributions have been studied, broad‐scale effects of climate on survival are less well known. We examined the interactive effects of meteorological and remotely sensed environmental variables on survival of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) lambs and adults by synthesizing radio‐telemetry data across their range. We used data from 9 studies of adult sheep and 2 studies of lambs that were conducted between 1997 and 2012 at sites spanning the species' range in Alaska, USA, and northwestern Canada. We obtained environmental variables throughout the range of Dall's sheep, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from optical remote sensing, freeze‐thaw frequency (FTF) from passive microwave remote sensing, and gridded climate variables such as snow water equivalent, temperature, and precipitation. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to investigate the effects of environmental variables recorded during summer, winter, and the previous winter on annual survival rates of Dall's sheep lambs and adults. Summer NDVI was the most influential environmental factor affecting lamb survival, with improved lamb survival occurring in years with a high maximum NDVI. Also, lamb predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) decreased substantially with increasing NDVI. The previous winter FTF had the strongest effect on adult survival, with decreased survival occurring after winters with high FTF. In addition, these remotely sensed environmental factors interacted with meteorological factors to affect survival, such that effects of winter temperature depended on summer NDVI and winter FTF. Warm winters increased lamb survival only when preceded by summers with high NDVI, and warm winters increased adult survival only when winter FTF was low. Thus, potential benefits of climate warming may be counteracted if wintertime freeze‐thaw events markedly increase. Correlations among environmental variables across sites were low, and regional climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had weak effects, indicating substantial local variability in climatic conditions experienced by Dall's sheep across their range. These findings can help managers anticipate how Dall's sheep populations will respond to changes in local environmental conditions. Our results also highlight the utility of multiple remotely sensed environmental conditions for ungulate management, especially passive microwave products that provide valuable information on winter icing events. © 2020 The Wildlife Society. Survival of Dall's sheep was affected by changes in winter temperatures, frequencies of freeze‐thaw events, and vegetation productivity. The interactive effects of projected changes in these variables might increase lamb survival and decrease adult survival, with net effects on population numbers that may vary substantially across their distribution based on local climate trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large predators often suppress ungulate population growth, but they may also suppress the abundance of smaller predators that prey on neonatal ungulates. Antagonistic interactions among predators may therefore need to be integrated into predator-prey models to effectively manage ungulate-predator systems. We present a modeling framework that examines the net impact of interacting predators on the population growth rate of shared prey, using interactions among wolves Canis lupus, coyotes Canis latrans and Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli as a case study. Wolf control is currently employed on approximately 16 million ha in Alaska to increase the abundance of ungulates for human harvest. We hypothesized that the positive effects of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth could be counteracted by increased levels of predation by coyotes. Coyotes and Dall sheep adult females (ewes) and lambs were radiocollared in the Alaska Range from 1999-2005 to estimate fecundity, age-specific survival rates, and causes of mortality in an area without wolf control. We used stage-structured population models to simulate the net effect of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth (λ). Our models accounted for stage-specific predation rates by wolves and coyotes, compensatory mortality, and the potential release of coyote populations due to wolf control. Wolves were the main predators of ewes, coyotes were the main predators of lambs, and wolves were the main source of mortality for coyotes. Population models predicted that wolf control could increase sheep λ by 4% per year in the absence of mesopredator release. However, if wolf control released coyote populations, our models predicted that sheep λ could decrease by up to 3% per year. These results highlight the importance of integrating antagonistic interactions among predators into predator-prey models, because the net effect of predator management on shared prey can depend critically on the strength of mesopredator release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non-invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005-2008). Multiple regression and an information-theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate-topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indirect interactions among species can strongly influence population dynamics and community structure but are often overlooked in management of large mammals. We estimated survival of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli) in the central Alaska Range, USA, during years of differing snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance to test whether indirect interactions with a cyclic hare population affect Dall's sheep either negatively, by subsidizing predators (apparent competition), or positively, by diverting predation (apparent commensalism). Annual survival of adult female sheep was consistently high (0.85 for all yr and age classes combined). In contrast, annual estimates of lamb survival ranged from 0.15 to 0.63. The main predators of lambs were coyotes (Canis latrans) and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), which rely on hares as their primary food and prey on lambs secondarily. Coyotes and eagles killed 78% of 65 radiocollared lambs for which cause of death was known. Lamb survival was negatively related to hare abundance during the previous year, and lamb survival rates more than doubled when hare abundance declined, supporting the hypothesis of predator-mediated apparent competition between hares and sheep. However, stage-specific predation and delays in predator responses to changes in hare numbers led to a positive relationship between abundance of adult Dall's sheep and hares. Lacking reliable estimates of survival, a manager might erroneously conclude that hares benefit sheep. Thus, support for different indirect effects can be obtained from different types of data, which demonstrates the need to determine the mechanisms that create indirect interactions. Long-term survey data suggest that predation by coyotes is limiting this sheep population below levels typical when coyotes were rare or absent. Understanding the nature of indirect interactions is necessary to effectively manage complex predator-prey communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies the natal dispersal of fishers in a harvested population over concerns of high level of harvest and a lack of information about fisher dispersal. Possibility of dispersal to limit fisher density and competition for food; Short distances dispersal as limiting fishers' ability to recolonize areas.

Presents a method of comparing data on habitat use and availability. Background on the study method used; Estimating the resource selection function; Hypothesis test; Monte Carlo simulations; Habitat selection tests.