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Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9-74% and 33-55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950-1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8-44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25-113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223-620%), shrub tundra may increase (4-21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10-24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperatures in high-latitude ecosystems are increasing faster than the average rate of global warming, which may lead to a positive feedback for climate change by increasing the respiration rates of soil organic C. If a positive feedback is confirmed, soil C will represent a source of greenhouse gases that is not currently considered in international protocols to regulate C emissions. We present new estimates of the stocks of soil organic C in Alaska, calculated by linking spatial and field data developed by the USDA NRCS. The spatial data are from the State Soil Geographic database (STATSGO), and the field and laboratory data are from the National Soil Characterization Database, also known as the pedon database. The new estimates range from 32 to 53 Pg of soil organic C for Alaska, formed by linking the spatial and field data using the attributes of Soil Taxonomy. For modelers, we recommend an estimation method based on taxonomic subgroups with interpolation for missing areas, which yields an estimate of 48 Pg. his is a substantial increase over a magnitude of 13 Pg estimated from only the STATSGO data as originally distributed in 1994, but the increase reflects different estimation methods and is not a measure of the change in C on the landscape. Pedon samples were collected between 1952 and 2002, so the results do not represent a single point in time. The linked databases provide an improved basis for modeling the impacts of climate change on net ecosystem exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]