Search

Rapid provision of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs, here polar motion and dUT1) is indispensable in many geodetic applications and also for spacecraft navigation. There are, however, discrepancies between the rapid EOPs and the final EOPs that have a higher latency but the highest accuracy. To reduce these discrepancies, we focus on a data‐driven approach, present a novel method named ResLearner, and use it in the context of deep ensemble learning. Furthermore, we introduce a geophysically constrained approach for ResLearner. We show that the most important geophysical information to improve the rapid EOPs is the effective angular momentum functions of atmosphere, ocean, land hydrology, and sea level. In addition, semidiurnal, diurnal, and long‐period tides coupled with prograde and retrograde tidal excitations are important features. The influence of some climatic indices on the prediction accuracy of dUT1 is discussed, and El Niño Southern Oscillation is found to be influential. We developed an operational framework, providing the improved EOPs on a daily basis with a prediction window of 63 days to fully cover the latency of final EOPs. We show that under the operational conditions and using the rapid EOPs of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), we achieve improvements as high as 60%, thus significantly reducing the differences between rapid and final EOPs. Furthermore, we discuss how the new final series IERS 20 C04 is preferred over 14 C04. Finally, we compare against EOP hindcast experiments of the European Space Agency, on which ResLearner presents comparable improvements. Plain Language Summary: The International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) provides rapid Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) using different space‐geodetic techniques to bridge the latency of the final, most accurate EOPs solution. However, these rapid EOPs are not in full agreement with the final EOPs. In order to reduce the differences between the rapid and final EOPs, we focus on the application of machine learning and present a novel method named ResLearner, which is based on geodetic data and geophysical constraints. We present the method in the context of deep ensemble learning, focusing on a prediction window of 63 days. We also attempt to link informative geophysical effects to these discrepancies. We show that they are linked to a mixture of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and sea level effective angular momentum functions, dominance of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems‐derived polar motion, and various short‐ and long‐term tidal excitations. El Niño Southern Oscillation is also relevant for dUT1 prediction. The methodology can provide significant improvements of up to 60% in operational settings with respect to rapid EOPs provided by IERS. Additional validation is done by using the data of Jet Propulsion Laboratory final EOP series and also EOP series provided by the European Space Agency. Key Points: We introduce a novel machine learning algorithm named ResLearner to improve the accuracy of rapid and predicted Earth orientation parameters (EOPs)We also present geophysically constrained ResLearner, using Earth's effective angular momentum functions, tides, and climatic indicesBesides prediction, ResLearner is also able to effectively correct deficits in rapidly processed EOPs with respect to final EOPs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major problem in the precise orbit determination (POD) of satellites at altitudes below 1,000 km is the modeling of the aerodynamic drag which mainly depends on the thermospheric density and causes the largest non‐gravitational acceleration. Typically, empirical thermosphere models are used to calculate density values at satellite positions but current thermosphere models cannot provide the required accuracy. Thus, unaccounted variations in the thermospheric density may lead to significantly incorrect satellite positions. For the first time, we bring together thermospheric density corrections for the NRLMSISE‐00 model in terms of scale factors with a temporal resolution of 12 hr derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) and accelerometer measurements. Whereas, the latter are in situ information given along the satellite orbit, SLR results have to be interpreted as mean values along the orbit within the underlying time interval. From their comparison, we notice a rather similar behavior with correlations of up to 80% and more depending on altitude. During high solar activity, scale factors vary around 30% at low solar activity and up to 70% at high solar activity from the value one. In addition, we found the scaled thermospheric density decreasing stronger as the modeled density of NRLMSISE‐00. To check the reliability of the SLR‐derived scale factors, we compare the POD result of two different software packages, namely DOGS‐OC from DGFI‐TUM and GROOPS from IGG Bonn. Furthermore, a validation of our estimated scale factors with respect to an external data set proofs the high quality of the obtained results. Plain Language Summary: Variations in the density of the thermosphere must be taken into account when modeling and predicting the motion of satellites in the near‐Earth environment. Typically, thermospheric densities at the position of satellites are provided by models, but their accuracy is limited. Due to the sensitivity of satellites orbiting the Earth in the altitude range of the thermosphere, they can be used to derive information about the thermospheric density. In this study, we compare for the first time thermospheric density corrections in terms of scale factors for the NRLMSISE‐00 model with a temporal resolution of 12 hr derived from two geodetic measurement techniques, namely satellite laser ranging (SLR) and accelerometry. Our results demonstrate that both measurement techniques can be used to derive comparable scale factors of the thermospheric density, which vary around the desired value one. This indicates to which extent the NRLMSISE‐00 model differs from the observed thermospheric density. On average, during high solar activity, the model underestimates the thermospheric density and can be scaled up using the estimated scale factors. We additionally discuss our estimated scale factors with respect to an external data set. Furthermore, we validate the approach of deriving scale factors from SLR measurements by using two independent software packages. Key Points: For the first time, we compare scale factors of the thermospheric density derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) and accelerometer measurementsThe estimated scale factors vary by up to 30% at low solar activity and up to 70% at high solar activity from the desired value 1Correlations of 0.7–0.8 are obtained between the estimated scale factors from SLR and accelerometer measurements depending on the height [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]