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Multiple energy‐related crises require a fast transition towards a sustainable energy system. The European Green Deal aims for zero CO2 emission by 2050, while accelerating climate change impacts obligate a faster phase‐out of fossil fuels. Energy transition studies for Europe at and near 100% renewable energy are used as a benchmark for two newly introduced scenarios for Europe reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and 2040. A technology‐rich energy system model was applied in hourly resolution for Europe in 20 interconnected regions and in full sector coupling covering all energy demands. The results reveal a cost‐neutral energy transition towards 2050 based on declining levelised cost of electricity and a pathway with 9% higher energy costs leading to 17% lower total CO2 emissions with an accelerated energy transition by 2040. The two scenarios find shares of solar photovoltaic (PV) in total generation of 61%–63% by 2050, the highest ever estimated for Europe, still below the highest global average shares ranging between 75% and 77% form three independent studies. The central energy system components are solar PV, wind power, batteries, electrolysers and CO2 direct air capture for carbon capture and utilisation. The core characteristic of the European energy future may be best described by a power‐to‐X economy, which may evolve on the global scale to a solar‐to‐X economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The British Isles, consisting of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, were investigated for a sustainable energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in 2050. Under given framework conditions, three pathways comprising the entire energy system were investigated in 5‐year time steps and hourly resolution applying an advanced energy system modelling tool and identifying the lowest cost solutions. The British Isles were structured into 10 sub‐national regions. Special attention was paid to the high offshore wind potential of the British Isles, as well as the limited societal acceptance for onshore wind in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that a transition to 100% renewable energy is economically more attractive than the governmental strategy that involves nuclear power and fossil carbon capture and storage. The total annualised system costs can decrease to 63 b€ and a levelised cost of electricity of 40 €/MWh if onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are allowed to be built to a higher extend. High levels of electrification and sector coupling are the main reasons for decreasing primary energy demand. The multiple risks of nuclear technology can be avoided if dedicated action towards 100% renewable energy is taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a novel approach to analysing the Japanese energy system transition from a mostly fossil fuels‐based system as of today, to a sustainable renewable energy‐based system by 2050. This research uses a novel technology‐rich, multi‐regional, multi‐sectoral, and cost‐optimal energy system model for the analysis, describing pathways to achieving the Japanese climate neutrality vision by 2050 based on renewables in the most cost‐effective manner. The energy transition of Japan is analysed for both rapid and delayed defossilisation pathways, impact of demand sensitivity, and benefit of sustainable energy imports in the form of electricity from Russia and China or e‐fuels from countries like Australia. The results show that a self‐sufficient energy system is achievable; however, some sustainable energy imports in the form of electricity and e‐fuels can be beneficial in further reducing overall investments, relieve pressure to develop local renewable resources and improving energy system flexibility. In addition, this research highlights the critical advantage of a fully renewable pathway, sector coupling, and high electrification rates as the most cost‐efficient way of achieving the Japanese climate neutrality vision by 2050. The renewable pathway also delivers an energy system with high levels of efficiency gains through direct and indirect renewable electricity usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan is currently undertaking a substantial expansion of electricity generation capacity to provide electricity for all its end‐users and to satisfy a fast‐growing economy. Adoption of low‐cost, abundant and clean renewable energy will not only fulfil its growing electricity, heat, transportation and desalinated water demand but also help achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement. A technology‐rich energy system model applied in hourly resolution has been used for investigating the transition in 5‐year periods until 2050. This study demonstrates that a 100% renewable energy system across the power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is not only technically feasible but also economically viable. Solar photovoltaics emerges as a key technology to generate electricity and contribute a share of 92% to the total primary energy demand across all sectors by 2050. The levelised cost of energy for a 100% renewable energy system is calculated as 56.1 €/MWh in 2050, lower than 70 €/MWh for the current fossil fuel‐based system. A key feature of Pakistan's future energy system is the huge increase in demand across all energy sectors, particularly for desalinated water, which is almost 19% of the final energy demand. This share of energy for desalination is among the highest in the world. Direct and indirect electrification across all demand sectors increases the efficiency of the future energy system. Moreover, GHG emissions from all the sectors will drop to zero by 2050 in a fully sustainable energy scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement sets a clear target for net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the mid‐21st century. This implies that the transport sector has to reach zero GHG emissions mainly through direct and indirect electrification in the form of synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen and Fischer‐Tropsch (FT) fuels. The results of this research document that this very ambitious target is possible. This research analyses the global solar photovoltaics (PV) demand for achieving the Paris targets in the transport sector by the year 2050. The methodology is composed of the derivation of the transportation demand converted into final energy demand for direct electrification, hydrogen, methane, and FT‐fuels production. The power‐to‐gas (H2, CH4) and power‐to‐liquids (FT fuels) value chains are applied for the total electricity demand, which will be mostly fulfilled by PV, taking into account previous results concerning the renewable electricity share of the energy transition in the power sector for the world structured in 145 regions and results aggregated to nine major regions. The results show a continuous demand increase for all transportation modes till 2050. The total global PV capacity demand by 2050 for the transport sector is estimated to be about 19.1 TWp, thereof 35%, 25%, 7%, and 33% for direct electrification, hydrogen, synthetic natural gas, and FT fuels, respectively. PV will be the key enabler of a full defossilisation of the transport sector with a demand comparable with the power sector but a slightly later growth dynamic, leading to a combined annual PV capacity demand of about 1.8 TWp around 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost‐optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5‐year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub-regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1-9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid-term. The long-term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid-term to long-term for the global energy supply. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]