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Background Adults with a systemic right ventricle (sRV) have a high risk of cardiac complications. This study aimed to identify prognostic markers in adults with sRV based on clinical evaluation, echocardiography, and blood biomarkers. Methods and Results In this prospective cohort study, consecutive clinically stable adults with sRV caused by Mustard- or congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries were included (2011-2013). Eighty-six patients were included (age 37±9 years, 65% male, 83% New York Heart Association functional class I, 76% Mustard transposition of the great arteries, 24% congenitally corrected transposition of the great arteries). Venous blood sampling was performed including N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitive-troponin-T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, growth differentiation factor-15, galectin-3, red cell distribution width, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin. Besides conventional echocardiographic measurements, longitudinal, circumferential, and radial strain were assessed using strain analysis. During a median follow-up of 5.9 (interquartile range 5.3-6.3) years, 19 (22%) patients died or had heart failure (primary end point) and 29 (34%) patients died or had arrhythmia (secondary end point). Univariable Cox regression analysis was performed using dichotomous or standardized continuous variables. New York Heart Association functional class >I, systolic blood pressure, and most blood biomarkers were associated with the primary and secondary end point (galectin-3 not for primary, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein not for secondary end point). Growth differentiation factor-15 showed the strongest association with both end points (hazard ratios; 2.44 [95% CI 1.67-3.57, P<0.001], 2.00 [95% CI 1.46-2.73, P<0.001], respectively). End-diastolic basal dimension of the subpulmonary ventricle was associated with both end points (hazard ratio: 1.95 [95% CI 1.34-2.85], P<0.001, 1.70 [95% CI 1.21-2.38, P=0.002], respectively). Concerning strain analysis, only sRV septal strain was associated with the secondary end point (hazard ratio 0.58 [95% CI 0.39-0.86], P=0.006). Conclusions Clinical, conventional echocardiographic, and blood measurements are important markers for risk stratification in adults with a sRV. The value of novel echocardiographic strain analysis seems limited.

Background: A single NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurement is a strong prognostic factor in adult congenital heart disease. This study investigates NT-proBNP profiles within patients with adult congenital heart disease and relates these to cardiovascular events., Methods and Results: In this prospective cohort, 602 patients with adult congenital heart disease were enrolled at the outpatient clinic (years 2011-2013). NT-proBNP was measured at study inclusion in 595 patients (median age 33 [IQR 25-41] years, 58% male, 90% NYHA I) and at subsequent annual visits. The primary end point was defined as death, heart failure, hospitalization, arrhythmia, thromboembolic event, or cardiac intervention; the secondary end point as death or heart failure. Repeated measurements were analyzed using linear mixed models and joint models. During a median follow-up of 4.4 [IQR 3.8-4.8] years, a total of 2424 repeated measurements were collected. Average NT-proBNP increase was 2.9 pmol/L the year before the primary end point (n=199, 34%) and 18.2 pmol/L before the secondary end point (n=58, 10%), compared with 0.3 pmol/L in patients who remained end point-free ( P -value for difference in slope 0.006 and <0.001, respectively). In patients with elevated baseline NT-proBNP (>14 pmol/L, n=315, 53%), repeated measurements were associated with the primary end point (HR per 2-fold higher value 2.08; 95% CI 1.31-3.87; P <0.001) and secondary end point (HR 2.47; 95% CI 1.13-5.70; P =0.017), when adjusted for the baseline measurement., Conclusions: NT-proBNP increased before the occurrence of events, especially in patients who died or developed heart failure. Serial NT-proBNP measurements could be of additional prognostic value in the annual follow-up of patients with adult congenitive heart disease with an elevated NT-proBNP., (© 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.)