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An influential literature estimates the impact of trade on labor markets with shift‐share instrumental variable designs under the assumption that common demand shocks in advanced economies are negligible. This article documents empirical patterns, which suggest that such common demand shocks are prevalent. It then proposes a strategy that directly identifies country‐specific export supply shocks. Finally, it uses these supply shocks in reduced‐form regression, which suggest contractions of manufacturing employment that are larger than those in the seminal contribution by Autor et al. (American Economic Review, 2013, 103, 2121–2168). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Quiescent‐interval slice‐selective (QISS) magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is a non‐contrast alternative for the pre‐procedural assessment of patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). However, the feasibility of pre‐procedural stent size estimation using QISS MRA would merit investigation. Purpose To evaluate the feasibility of QISS MRA for pre‐procedural stent size estimation in PAD patients compared to computed tomography angiography (CTA). Study Type: Retrospective. Subjects: Thirty‐three PAD patients (68 ± 9 years, 18 men, 15 women). Field Strength/Sequence: Two‐dimensional balanced steady‐state free precession QISS MRA at 1.5 T and 3 T. Assessment All patients received QISS MRA and CTA of the lower extremity run‐off followed by interventional digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Stenotic lesion length and diameter were quantified (AMF and AVS with 3 and 13 years of experience in cardiovascular imaging, respectively) to estimate the dimensions of the stent necessary to restore blood flow in the treated arteries. Measured dimensions were adjusted to the closest stent size available. Statistical Tests: The Friedman test with subsequent pairwise Wilcoxon signed‐rank test was used to compare the estimated stent dimensions between QISS MRA, CTA, and the physical stent size used for intervention. Intra‐class correlation (ICC) analysis was performed to assess inter‐reader agreement. Significant differences were considered at P < 0.05. Results: No significant difference was observed between estimated stent diameter by QISS MRA or CTA compared to physical stent diameter (8.9 ± 2.9 mm, 8.8 ± 3.0 mm, and 8.8 ± 3.8 mm, respectively; χ2 = 1.45, P = 0.483). There was a significant underestimation of stent length for both QISS MRA and CTA, compared to physical stent length (45.8 ± 27.8 mm, 46.4 ± 29.3 mm, and 50.4 ± 34.0 mm, respectively; χ2 = 11.96) which could be corrected when measurements were adjusted to the next available stent length (χ2 = 2.38, P = 0.303). Inter‐reader assessment showed good to excellent agreement between the readers (all ICC ≥0.81). Data Conclusion: QISS MRA represents a reliable method for pre‐procedural lesion assessment and stent diameter and length estimation in PAD patients. Level of Evidence: 3 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The near‐surface zero degree line (ZDL) is a key isotherm in mountain regions worldwide, but a detailed analysis of methods for the ZDL determination, their properties and applicability in a changing climate is missing. We here test different approaches to determine the near‐surface ZDL on a monthly scale in the Swiss Alps. A non‐linear profile yields more robust and more realistic ZDLs than a linear profile throughout the year and especially in the winter‐half year when frequent inversions disqualify a linear assumption. In the period 1871–2019, the Swiss ZDL has risen significantly in every calendar month: In northern Switzerland, the monthly ZDL increases generally amount to 300–400 m with smaller values in April and September (200–250 m) and a larger value in October (almost 500 m). The largest increases of 600–700 m but also very large uncertainties (±400 m, 95% confidence interval) are found in December and January. The increases have accelerated in the last decades, especially in spring and summer. The ZDL is currently increasing by about 160 m·°C−1 warming in the summer‐half year and by up to 340 ± 45 m·°C−1 warming in winter months. In southern Switzerland, ZDL trends and temperature scalings are somewhat smaller, especially in winter. Sensitivity analyses using a simple shift of the non‐linear temperature profile suggest that the winter ZDL‐temperature scalings are at a record high today or will reach it in the near future, and are expected to decrease with a strong future warming. Nevertheless, the cumulative ZDL increase for strong warming is considerably larger in winter than in summer. Based on a few key criteria, we also present best practises to determine the ZDL in mountain regions worldwide. The outlined methods lay a foundation for the analysis of further isotherms and to study the future ZDL evolution based on climate scenario data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial dependence of meteorological variables is crucial for many impacts, for example, droughts, floods, river flows, energy demand, and crop yield. There is thus a need to understand how well it is represented in downscaling (DS) products. Within the COST Action VALUE, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis of spatial variability in the output of over 40 different DS methods in a perfect predictor setup. The DS output is evaluated against daily precipitation and temperature observations for the period 1979–2008 at 86 sites across Europe and 53 sites across Germany. We have analysed the dependency of correlations of daily temperature and precipitation series at station pairs on the distance between the stations. For the European data set, we have also investigated the complexity of the downscaled data by calculating the number of independent spatial degrees of freedom. For daily precipitation at the German network, we have additionally evaluated the dependency of the joint exceedance of the wet day threshold and of the local 90th percentile on the distance between the stations. Finally, we have investigated regional patterns of European monthly precipitation obtained from rotated principal component analysis. We analysed Perfect Prog (PP) methods, which are based on statistical relationships derived from observations, as well as Model Output Statistics (MOS) approaches, which attempt to correct simulated variables. In summary, we found that most PP DS methods, with the exception of multisite analog methods and a method that explicitly models spatial dependence yield unrealistic spatial characteristics. Regional climate model‐based MOS methods showed good performance with respect to correlation lengths and the joint occurrence of wet days, but a substantial overestimation of the joint occurrence of heavy precipitation events. These findings apply to the spatial scales that are resolved by our observation network, and similar studies with higher resolutions, which are relevant for small hydrological catchment, are desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Merchanting is goods trade that does not cross the border of the firm's country of residence. Merchanting grew strongly in the last decade in several European economies and has become an important determinant of these countries' current account. Because merchanting firms reinvest their earnings abroad to expand their international activities, this practice raises national savings in the home country without increasing domestic investment. This paper examines the empirical linkages between merchanting and the current account balance. Using a sample of 53 countries during 1980-2011, it shows that merchanting activity is a determinant of the medium-term current account balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Ensembles of regional climate models are widely used to obtain climate change signals and to evaluate associated uncertainties over a specific region. These models are forced by general circulation models ( GCMs) at their lateral boundaries. The most recent multi-model ensembles projects - ENSEMBLES and CORDEX - rely on a limited set of about 10 GCMs per greenhouse gas emission scenario. It was shown previously that in particular, RCM temperature responses tend to cluster according to their driving GCM. Therefore, it is important to better understand the relation among the driving models. In multi-model ensembles as large as CMIP5, in which models tend to correlate due to their similar origin, model selection or weighting becomes an important issue. This study evaluates the distribution of climate change signals in the CMIP5 ensemble for temperature and precipitation over the Greater Alpine region and shows that different reasonable methods of model selection considerably influence the resulting temperature spread in the climate change signals at the end of the century relative to 1980-2009: excluding those GCMs with a poor representation of Alpine climate leads to a difference in spread of more than 1 °C compared to a selection strategy where all models are included and given the same weight. It is highlighted that the largest amount of spread can be retained with a weighting scheme based on a cluster analysis. Furthermore, we show in bivariate analyses that our understanding of the interplay between temperature and precipitation significantly depends on the model selection strategy. Hence, this work may have important implications for current and future design and analysis of multi-model projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959 to 2008, using a new 2 × 2 km gridded data-set based on carefully homogenised ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail, and second, to quantify the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation and local effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35 °C/decade (∼1.6 times the northern hemispheric warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48 °C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. Part of the trends can be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, circulation effects account for more than half the trends, while this contribution is much smaller in other seasons. After removing the effect of circulation, the trends still show seasonal variations with higher values in spring and summer. The circulation-corrected trends are closer to the values simulated by a set of ENSEMBLES regional climate models, with the models still tending towards a trend underestimation in spring and summer. Our results suggest that both circulation changes and more local effects are important to explain part of recent warming in spring, summer, and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the stronger spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line, but the overall effect is small. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

•Senescence is the highly regulated last developmental phase of plant organs and tissues, and is optimized to allow nutrient remobilization to surviving plant parts, such as seeds of annual crops. High leaf carbohydrate to nitrogen (C : N) ratios have been implicated in the induction or acceleration of the senescence process. •A combination of phloem interruption in mature leaves (by steam-girdling, leading to carbohydrate accumulation from photosynthesis) and varied nitrate supply was used to analyse correlations between metabolite levels, leaf senescence parameters and induction of protease genes and proteolytic activities. •Its strong induction under conditions characterized by high C : N ratios, negative correlation of its transcript levels with chlorophylls and nitrates, its strong induction during developmental leaf senescence and its predicted localization to a lytic vacuolar compartment indicate that, among the genes tested, a family C1A cysteine protease is most likely to participate in bulk protein degradation during barley leaf senescence. •While all the genes analysed were selected based on upregulation during leaf senescence in a previous transcriptomic study, a considerably more detailed picture of protease gene regulation emerged from the data presented here, underlining the usefulness of this experimental approach for further (functional) protease characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are weekly inflation forecasts informative? Although several central banks review and discuss monetary policy issues on a bi-weekly basis, there have been no attempts by analysts to construct systematic estimates of core inflation that supports such a decision-making schedule. The timeliness of news releases are recognized to be an important information source in real-time estimation. We incorporate real-time information from macroeconomic releases and revisions into our weekly updates of monthly Swiss core inflation using a common factor procedure. The weekly estimates for Swiss core inflation show that it is worthwhile to update the forecast at least twice a month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf senescence and nitrogen remobilization from senescing tissues are two important factors determining grain protein content (GPC) in cereals. We compared near-isogenic barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.) germplasm varying in the allelic state of a major GPC quantitative trait locus on chromosome 6, delineated by molecular markers HVM74 and ABG458 and explaining approximately 46% of the variability in this trait. High GPC was consistently associated with earlier whole-plant senescence. SDS–PAGE and immunoblot analysis of flag leaf proteins indicated earlier leaf protein [including ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco)] degradation in high-GPC germplasm. This was accompanied by enhanced availability of ammonium and glutamine in developing kernels, suggesting increased phloem retranslocation of nitrogen. Based on previous microarray analysis, we performed a detailed expression study of six leaf genes, tentatively involved in plastidial proteolysis, vacuolar proteolysis, intermediary N metabolism and N transport. All of these were upregulated in high-GPC barley, mostly around 21 to 28 days past anthesis, prior to or around the time demonstrating maximal differences in leaf protein (including Rubisco) levels. Therefore, these genes represent potential targets to manipulate grain protein accumulation. It appears likely that their functional analysis will enhance our understanding of whole-plant N recycling. Additionally, earlier leaf (photosynthetic) protein degradation may lead to reduced N carbon assimilation in high-GPC germplasm, explaining past studies demonstrating a negative correlation between GPC and yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• To identify genes involved in the regulation and execution of leaf senescence and whole-plant nitrogen reallocation, near-isogenic barley germplasm divergent in senescence timing and protein concentration of mature grains was contrasted. • Barley lines differing in allelic state at a major locus on chromosome six, controlling grain protein concentration, were obtained after four generations of backcrossing. Based on physiological data indicating major differences between low- and high-grain protein germplasm at 14–21 d past anthesis, the flag leaf and kernel transcriptomes of the low-protein parent and one high-protein near-isogenic line were compared at these time points, using the 22-k Barley1 Affymetrix microarray. • Our data associate several genes with both known (based on sequence comparisons) and unknown functions with the senescence process. These include leucine-rich repeat transmembrane protein kinases, a glycine-rich RNA-binding protein with homology to AtGRP7 and a ‘ mother of FT/TF1’ gene. Our data also indicate upregulation of genes coding for both plastidial and extraplastidial proteases in germplasm with accelerated leaf senescence. • Functional characterization of candidate genes identified by this research may contribute to our understanding of the molecular network underlying leaf senescence and nitrogen reallocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Leaf senescence can be described as the dismantling of cellular components during a specific time interval before cell death. This has the effect of remobilizing N in the form of amino acids that can be relocalized to developing seeds. High levels of carbohydrates have previously been shown to promote the onset of the senescence process. • Carbohydrate accumulation in barley ( Hordeum vulgare) plants was induced experimentally by steam-girdling at the leaf base, occluding the phloem, and gene regulation under these conditions was investigated using the Affymetrix Barley GeneChip array and quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). • Transcript levels of plastidial (aminopeptidases, cnd41) and vacuolar (thiol and serine) proteases clearly increase in girdled leaves. Of special interest are cnd41, a plastidial aspartyl peptidase that has been implicated in Rubisco degradation in tobacco; and cp-mIII, a highly upregulated carboxypeptidase. SAG12, hexokinases and other senescence-specific genes are also upregulated under these conditions. • Applying a genomic approach to the innovative experimental system described here significantly enhances our knowledge of leaf proteolysis and whole-plant N recycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Vegetative lipoxygenases (VLXs) in soybean are hypothesized to function in nitrogen storage and partitioning. Isoform-specific antibodies for four of the five known VLX isoenzymes were used to investigate the influence of source-sink status on protein levels, as well as to analyze the tissue and subcellular localization of the different isoforms. VLXD responded most strongly to sink limitation, although the levels of VLXA, B and C increased as well. After sink limitation, VLXD and the vegetative storage protein, VSPα, accumulated in the vacuoles of bundle sheath and paraveinal mesophyll cells, while VLXA, B and C localized to the cytosol of these cells. All five known VLX isoenzymes were active with both linoleic and linolenic acid substrates after expression in Escherichia coli. The strong upregulation of VLXD levels after sink limitation as well as the localization of this isoform to the vacuoles of paraveinal mesophyll and bundle sheath cells (where VSPs are found) strongly suggest that VLXD should be considered as a major storage protein in soybean leaves. Furthermore, since VLXA, B and C also accumulate in sink-limited soybean leaves, are located in the cytosol of paraveinal mesophyll cells and are active at pH values typically found in this compartment, their activities may well contribute to lipid metabolism in this tissue. This multi-gene family is thus ideally poised to play a pivotal role in the balance of N deposition relative to lipid-based storage, defense or signaling, by modulating contribu- tions to these processes in the transient storage cells of the paraveinal mesophyll. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article outlines a series of unit root tests as an alternative testing strategy for rationality. It presents several necessary conditions for survey data which rationally forecast economic variables with unit-roots. An example is provided using the Money Market Services survey data. The rationality properties of unbiasedness and efficiency are not rejected. The necessary conditions for rationality are tested. The article also discusses the rationality of weekly money announcements in the United States.

The article presents an informal account of regime shifts in Swiss monetary policy. It discusses how the money demand function is expected to shift in the face of such policy changes. An empirical analysis establishes the super exogeneity of prices and interest rates in a money function. The exogeneity results imply that the Lucas critique is refuted and the specified money demand function is invariant to periods of exchange rate management.