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Land degradation and forest fragmentation have been prominent issues in the Amazon since the 1970s, primarily driven by the suppression of primary forests due to land use changes. In this study, we propose an innovative approach by integrating artificial neural networks (ANN) and cellular automata Markov chain (CA‐MA) models to predict future land use and assess the associated forest fragmentation using landscape ecology metrics in the Jamari River Basin. The analysis reveals a significant increase in fragmentation between 1985 and 2018, as evidenced by a rise in the number of fragments from 7162 to 28,170. Moreover, we observed a decrease in the core area from approximately 2.5 million hectares to less than 1 million hectares, accompanied by an increase in edge density from 6 to 18 m.ha−1. Additionally, the average distance between fragments expanded from 66 to 95 m. Highlighting the urgency of addressing this issue, our study emphasizes the necessity of exploring effective strategies within the Brazilian public environmental management system. By utilizing various rural policy planning tools, we aim to tackle unsustainable development and mitigate the adverse impacts of land use changes in the region. In conclusion, this research offers an innovative approach that combines ANN and CA‐MA models to predict land use and assess forest fragmentation, shedding light on the alarming trend of land degradation and providing valuable insights for informed decision‐making and sustainable land management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land‐use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing precipitation. Here, we quantify the impacts of LUTs on ET and LST in the Cerrado by combining MODIS satellite data with annual land use and land cover maps from 2006 to 2019. We performed regression analyses to quantify the effects of six common LUTs on ET and LST across the entire gradient of Cerrado landscapes. Results indicate that clearing forests for cropland or pasture increased average LST by ~3.5°C and reduced mean annual ET by 44% and 39%, respectively. Transitions from woody savannas to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 1.9°C and reduced mean annual ET by 27% and 21%, respectively. Converting native grasslands to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 0.9 and 0.6°C, respectively. Conversely, grassland‐to‐pasture transitions increased mean annual ET by 15%. To date, land changes have caused a 10% reduction in water recycled to the atmosphere annually and a 0.9°C increase in average LST across the biome, compared to the historic baseline under native vegetation. Global climate changes from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will only exacerbate these effects. Considering potential future scenarios, we found that abandoning deforestation control policies or allowing legal deforestation to continue (at least 28.4 Mha) would further reduce yearly ET (by −9% and −3%, respectively) and increase average LST (by +0.7 and +0.3°C, respectively) by 2050. In contrast, policies encouraging zero deforestation and restoration of the 5.2 Mha of illegally deforested areas would partially offset the warming and drying impacts of land‐use change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting riparian vegetation around streams is vital in reducing the detrimental effects of environmental change on freshwater ecosystems and in maintaining aquatic biodiversity. Thus, identifying ecological thresholds is useful for defining regulatory limits and for guiding the management of riparian zones towards the conservation of freshwater biota.Using nationwide data on fish and invertebrates occurring in small Brazilian streams, we estimated thresholds of native vegetation loss in which there are abrupt changes in the occurrence and abundance of freshwater bioindicators and tested whether there are congruent responses among different biomes, biological groups and riparian buffer sizes.Mean thresholds of native vegetation cover loss varied widely among biomes, buffer sizes and biological groups: ranging from 0.5% to 77.4% for fish, from 2.9% to 37.0% for aquatic invertebrates and from 3.8% to 43.2% for a subset of aquatic invertebrates. Confidence intervals for thresholds were wide, but the minimum values of these intervals were lower for the smaller riparian buffers (50 and 100 m) than larger ones (200 and 500 m), indicating that land use should be kept away from the streams. Also, thresholds occurred at a lower percentage of riparian vegetation loss in the smaller buffers, and were critically lower for invertebrates: reducing only 6.5% of native vegetation cover within a 50‐m riparian buffer is enough to cross thresholds for invertebrates.Synthesis and applications. The high variability in biodiversity responses to loss of native riparian vegetation suggests caution in the use of a single riparian width for conservation actions or policy definitions nationwide. The most sensitive bioindicators can be used as early warning signals of abrupt changes in freshwater biodiversity. In practice, maintaining at least 50‐m wide riparian reserves on each side of streams would be more effective to protect freshwater biodiversity in Brazil. However, incentives and conservation strategies to protect even wider riparian reserves (~100 m) and also taking into consideration the regional context will promote a greater benefit. This information should be used to set conservation goals and to create complementary mechanisms and policies to protect wider riparian reserves than those currently required by the federal law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of lizards as model organisms in ecological studies is based on their success in occupying a great diversity of habitats, and some species are closely tied to the environment, which is disadvantaged by the legislation of several countries concerning land use. Our aim was to relate lizard species distribution patterns in rainforest environments to variation in environmental gradients, and provide ecologically based metrics for establishing buffer zones around streams. Lizards were sampled three times in 41 standardised transects near Manaus, Brazil, only in dry season, with Time Limited Visual Search associated with raking through leaf litter. We recorded 20 species from 10 families and used non‐metric multidimensional scaling to reduce the dimensionality of quantitative and qualitative compositions of species. Multiple linear regression models indicated that the environmental gradients distance to nearest stream, extent of canopy openness, vegetation density and slope did not significantly influence assemblage species distribution, with an indication of effect of litter depth. By means of piecewise linear regression, the use of riparian zone was estimated at ~190 m from quantitative species composition and ~211 m from qualitative species composition. Five species occurred only in the riparian zone. Our results suggest that conservation of the entire riparian lizard assemblage in Amazonian rainforest is likely to require protection of at least a 211 m buffer on either side of streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Biotropica is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)