1. Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA.
- Author
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Grant Ludwig, Lisa, Akciz, Sinan O., Arrowsmith, J Ramon, and Salisbury, J. Barrett
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GEOLOGIC faults , *EARTH sciences , *GEOLOGY , *EARTHQUAKES , *EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis - Abstract
Reproducibility of results from scientific studies is rarely demonstrated outside the laboratory. Measurements of fault slip rate underpin scientific models of active faulting and seismic hazard assessments widely used for policymaking and risk mitigation. We replicated a highly referenced study that measured the slip rate as 33.9 ± 2.9 mm/year along the San Andreas fault over the past ~3,700 years at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. Our results provide a slip rate of slip 36 ± 1 mm/year since ~3,500 CalBP. We find that the late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault, a key indicator of seismic hazard, is reproducible within measurement uncertainty. Geologic slip rate determinations are relatively insensitive to short‐term fluctuations and thus should be reproducible if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval. Plain Language Summary: We have replicated a keystone San Andreas fault slip rate measurement from the 1980s and showed that fault slip rate is reproducible if measured over the same geologic time interval and if the time interval is much greater than the average time interval between surface rupturing earthquakes. Key Points: Slip rate of the San Andreas fault was measured at a keystone site in the 1980s and remeasured in 2011‐2017 with newer methodsWithin measurement uncertainty, the 3,700‐year slip rate published in 1984 agrees with this 2019 slip rate measurementGenerally, fault slip rate is reproducible within measurement uncertainty if the time interval of measurement is much greater than the average rupture interval [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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