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The reproduction of many long‐lived plants is highly variable and synchronized, known as masting. Masting is a key driver of plant regeneration dynamics and has cascading effects on food webs and carbon and nutrient fluxes through ecosystems. Masting patterns can respond to changes in climate, but natural long‐term variability in masting behavior (i.e., baseline variability) is poorly understood. Here we use tree‐rings to create a four‐century reconstruction of annual cone production to uncover centennial‐scale evolution in masting of Araucaria araucana, a dioecious masting species in South America. Over the last four decades, direct observations of annual cone production in this species revealed remarkable range‐wide synchrony of masting. Our tree‐ring‐based reconstruction places this in a long‐term context, revealing that intense regional masting is not a consistent feature of A. araucana reproduction. For extensive periods over the last four centuries, masting has been a site‐specific phenomenon, with variability in cone production that was not regionally synchronized. Comparison with regional climate reconstructions indicates that regional synchrony of masting varies with regional temperature trends, including during recent decades. During warmer periods, synchrony is enhanced, and during cooler periods, regional synchrony breaks down. These dynamics have implications for understanding the reproduction of this iconic and endangered tree species and provide evidence of long‐term linkages between climate change and masting behavior. Our study demonstrates the potential for novel tree‐ring‐based reconstructions of masting to reveal crucial insights into baseline variability and the response of masting to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony may be tail‐dependent, meaning it is stronger for peaks rather than troughs, or vice versa. High interannual variation in seed production in perennial plants, called masting, can be synchronized at subcontinental scales, triggering extensive resource pulses or famines. We used data from 99 populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to examine whether masting synchrony differs between mast peaks and years of seed scarcity. Our results revealed that seed scarcity occurs simultaneously across the majority of the species range, extending to populations separated by distances up to 1800 km. Mast peaks were spatially synchronized at distances up to 1000 km and synchrony was geographically concentrated in northeastern Europe. Extensive synchrony in the masting lower tail means that famines caused by beech seed scarcity are amplified by their extensive spatial synchrony, with diverse consequences for food web functioning and climate change biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest‐forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year‐to‐year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan‐European species. Here, we analysed 50 long‐term datasets of population‐level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site‐specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population‐level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biology has an increasing need to reconsider the tools used to assess the variability of measurements, in addition to their central tendency. More than 100 years after Pearson's publication, most biologists still use the "good old" Pearson's coefficient of variation, PCV, despite its documented flaws such as sensitivity to excess zero values and/or irrelevant low mean values, which may compromise its use in some biological applications.A new statistic was developed in 2017 by Kvålseth, KCV, which is easy to implement. Unlike PCV, KCV is bounded (between 0 and 1), and it can be computed from PCV, ensuring backward compatibility with past studies. In addition to simulated data, we used the recent MASTREE+ database comprising the time series of the fruiting dynamics of perennial plants worldwide to compare the properties of PCV and KCV.Using as a benchmark the loose hump‐shaped relationship between the interannual variability of fruiting and latitude, KCV led to significant increase in statistical power as it required almost half as many time series as PCV to detect the relationship. Perhaps most importantly, simulated data showed that KCV allows huge reductions in the length of time series required to estimate the population true variability, saving more than half the duration of long‐term monitoring if fruiting fluctuations are very large, which is common in perennial plant species. Compared to the widely used PCV, KCV has great accuracy for estimating and analysing variability in biology, while strongly increasing statistical power.Selecting appropriate tools to assess the variability of measurements is crucial, particularly where the variability is of primary biological interest. Using Kvålseth's KCV is a promising avenue to circumvent the well‐known issues of the former Pearson' PCV, its properties remain to be explored in other fields of biology, for purposes other than purely statistical ones (e.g. estimating heritability or evolvability of traits). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production ("masting breakdown") which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship--correlation between tree size and viable seed production--has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand-and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The periodic production of large seed crops, or masting, is a widespread phenomenon in perennial plants. This behavior can enhance the reproductive efficiency of plants, leading to increased fitness, and produce ripple effects on food webs. While variability from year to year is a defining characteristic of masting, the methods used to quantify this variability are highly debated. The commonly used coefficient of variation lacks the ability to account for the serial dependence in mast data and can be influenced by zeros, making it a less suitable choice for various applications based on individual‐level observations, such as phenotypic selection, heritability, and climate change studies, which rely on individual‐plant‐level datasets that often contain numerous zeros. To address these limitations, we present three case studies and introduce volatility and periodicity, which account for the variance in the frequency domain by emphasizing the significance of long intervals in masting. By utilizing examples of Sorbus aucuparia, Pinus pinea, Quercus robur, Quercus pubescens, and Fagus sylvatica, we demonstrate how volatility captures the effects of variance at both high and low frequencies, even in the presence of zeros, leading to improved ecological interpretations of the results. The growing availability of long‐term, individual‐plant datasets promises significant advancements in the field, but requires appropriate tools for analysis, which the new metrics provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Interannual variability of seed production, known as masting, has far‐reaching ecological impacts including effects on forest regeneration and the population dynamics of seed consumers. Because the relative timing of management and conservation efforts in ecosystems dominated by masting species often determines their success, there is a need to study masting mechanisms and develop forecasting tools for seed production. Here, we aim to establish seed production forecasting as a new branch of the discipline. We evaluate the predictive capabilities of three models – foreMast, ΔT, and a sequential model – designed to predict seed production in trees using a pan‐European dataset of Fagus sylvatica seed production. The models are moderately successful in recreating seed production dynamics. The availability of high‐quality data on prior seed production improved the sequential model's predictive power, suggesting that effective seed production monitoring methods are crucial for creating forecasting tools. In terms of extreme events, the models are better at predicting crop failures than bumper crops, likely because the factors preventing seed production are better understood than the processes leading to large reproductive events. We summarize the current challenges and provide a roadmap to help advance the discipline and encourage the further development of mast forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seed production in many plants is characterized by large interannual variation, which is synchronized at subcontinental scales in some species but local in others. The reproductive synchrony affects animal migrations, trophic responses to resource pulses and the planning of management and conservation. Spatial synchrony of reproduction is typically attributed to the Moran effect, but this alone is unable to explain interspecific differences in synchrony. We show that interspecific differences in the conservation of seed production‐weather relationships combine with the Moran effect to explain variation in reproductive synchrony. Conservative timing of weather cues that trigger masting allows populations to be synchronized at distances >1000 km. Conversely, if populations respond to variable weather signals, synchrony cannot be achieved. Our study shows that species vary in the extent to which their weather cueing is spatiotemporally conserved, with important consequences, including an interspecific variation of masting vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long‐lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time‐series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population‐level time‐series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time‐series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well‐studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time‐series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open‐access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web‐based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long‐lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony is the tendency of spatially separated populations to display similar temporal fluctuations. Synchrony affects regional ecosystem functioning, but it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms. We leveraged regression on distance matrices and geography of synchrony to understand the processes driving synchrony of European beech masting over the European continent. Masting in beech shows distance‐decay, but significant synchrony is maintained at spatial scales of up to 1,500 km. The spatial synchrony of the weather cues that drive interannual variation in reproduction also explains the regional spatial synchrony of masting. Proximity played no apparent role in influencing beech masting synchrony after controlling for synchrony in environmental variation. Synchrony of beech reproduction shows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from the northwest to southeast Europe. Synchrony networks for weather cues resemble networks for beech masting, indicating that the geographical structure of weather synchrony underlies the biogeography of masting synchrony. Our results support the hypothesis that environmental factors, the Moran effect, are key drivers of spatial synchrony in beech seed production at regional scales. The geographical patterns of regional synchronization of masting have implications for regional forest production, gene flow, carbon cycling, disease dynamics, biodiversity, and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide with consequences for population recruitment and migration potential. For the many species that regenerate through synchronized, quasiperiodic reproductive events termed masting, these changes include decreases in the synchrony and interannual variation in seed production. This breakdown in the occurrence of masting features harms reproduction by decreasing the efficiency of pollination and increasing seed predation. Changes in masting are often paralleled by warming temperatures, but the underlying proximate mechanisms are unknown. We used a unique 39‐year study of 139 European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees that experienced masting breakdown to track the seed developmental cycle and pinpoint phases where weather effects on seed production have changed over time. A cold followed by warm summer led to large coordinated flowering efforts among plants. However, trees failed to respond to the weather signal as summers warmed and the frequency of reproductive cues changed fivefold. Less synchronous flowering resulted in less efficient pollination that further decreased the synchrony of seed maturation. As global temperatures are expected to increase this century, perennial plants that fine‐tune their reproductive schedules based on temperature cues may suffer regeneration failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change is expanding the ecological niche of mixed‐severity fire regimes into ecosystems that have not usually been associated with wildfires, such as temperate forests and rainforests. In contrast to stand‐replacing fires, mixed‐severity fires may result in delayed tree mortality driven by secondary factors such as post‐fire environmental conditions. Because these effects vary as a function of time post‐fire, their study using commonly applied logistic regression models is challenging. Here, we propose overcoming this challenge through the application of time‐explicit survival models such as the Kaplan‐Meier (KM‐) estimator and the Cox proportional‐hazards (PH‐) model. We use data on tree mortality after mixed‐severity fires in beech forests to (1) illustrate temporal trends in the survival probabilities and the mortality hazard of beech, (2) estimate annual survival probabilities for different burn severities, and (3) consider driving factors with possible time‐dependent effects. Based on our results, we argue that the combination of KM‐estimator and Cox‐PH models have the potential of substantially improve the analysis of delayed post‐disturbance tree mortality by answering when and why tree mortality occurs. The results provide more specific information for implementing post‐fire management measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate limits the potential distribution ranges of species. Establishment and growth of individuals at range margins is assumed to be more limited by extreme events such as drought or frost events than in the centre of their range. We explore whether the growth of beech is more sensitive to drought towards the dry distribution margin and more sensitive to frost towards the cold distribution margin. Furthermore, we aim to gain insight into the adaptive potential of beech towards both the dry and cold distribution margins. Location: European gradient from the dry (Spain) to the cold (Poland, Sweden) distribution margin of beech. Taxon: European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Methods: We applied a range‐wide dendroecological study to analyse spatial and temporal trends in climate–growth relationships. We further investigated negative growth anomalies and growth synchrony towards the range margins. Results: We found beech to be drought sensitive across its whole range, except at the dry distribution margin. Furthermore, sensitivity to winter temperature was not found in the centre or at the cold distribution margin, but at the southern distribution margin. Growth synchrony was lower at the dry than at the cold distribution margin. Main conclusions: Beech seems to be adapted to drought at the dry distribution margin with a high adaptive potential indicated by the lowest growth synchrony along the gradient. At the cold distribution margin, cold events in winter and spring were less important for growth than drought. Still, the importance of spring frost for beech growth appears to increase in recent decades. Considering a projected north‐eastward shift of the distribution range, beech is likely facing drought stress in combination with spring frost risk at the cold margin which could lead to a hampered range expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synchronous pulses of seed masting and natural disturbance have positive feedbacks on the reproduction of masting species in disturbance‐prone ecosystems. We test the hypotheses that disturbances and proximate causes of masting are correlated, and that their large‐scale synchrony is driven by similar climate teleconnection patterns at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales.Hypotheses were tested on white spruce (Picea glauca), a masting species which surprisingly persists in fire‐prone boreal forests while lacking clear fire adaptations. We built masting, drought and fire indices at regional (Alaska, Yukon, Alberta, Quebec) and sub‐continental scales (western North America) spanning the second half of the 20th century. Superposed Epoch Analysis tested the temporal associations between masting events, drought and burnt area at the regional scale. At the sub‐continental scale, Superposed Epoch Analysis tested whether El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its coupled effects with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the positive phase (AMO+/ENSO+) synchronize drought, burnt area and masting. We additionally tested the consistency of our synchronization hypotheses on a decadal temporal scale to verify whether long‐term oscillations in AMO+/ENSO+ are coherent to decadal variation in drought, burnt area and masting.Analyses demonstrated synchronicity between drought, fire and masting. In all regions the year before a mast event was drier and more fire‐prone than usual. During AMO+/ENSO+ events sub‐continental indices of drought and burnt area experienced significant departures from mean values. The same was observed for large‐scale masting in the subsequent year, confirming 1‐year lag between fire and masting. Sub‐continental indices of burnt area and masting showed in‐phase decadal fluctuations led by the AMO+/ENSO+. Results support the 'Environmental prediction hypothesis' for mast seeding.Synthesis. We provide evidence of large‐scale synchronicity between seed masting in Picea glauca and fire regimes in boreal forests of western North America at both inter‐annual and decadal time scales. We conclude that seed production in white spruce predicts changes in disturbance regimes by sharing the same large‐scale climate drivers with drought and fire. This gives new insides in a mechanism providing a fire‐sensitive species with higher than expected adaptability to changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steps to diversify priority-setting research in conservation: reflections on de Gracia 2021 There is growing awareness across many branches of science of the need to decolonize research practices and curricula (Aikenhead, 2006; Radcliffe, 2017), and the fields of ecology and conservation are no exception (Baker et al., 2019). THE FUTURE OF PRIORITY-SETTING RESEARCH IN CONSERVATION Reflecting on the need to broaden participation when prioritizing conservation objectives, de Gracia ultimately comes to the conclusion that "until this work is seriously undertaken, articles such as Jucker et al. are harmful and inappropriate.". [Extracted from the article]

Climatically controlled allocation to reproduction is a key mechanism by which climate influences tree growth and may explain lagged correlations between climate and growth. We used continent‐wide datasets of tree‐ring chronologies and annual reproductive effort in Fagus sylvatica from 1901 to 2015 to characterise relationships between climate, reproduction and growth. Results highlight that variable allocation to reproduction is a key factor for growth in this species, and that high reproductive effort ('mast years') is associated with stem growth reduction. Additionally, high reproductive effort is associated with previous summer temperature, creating lagged climate effects on growth. Consequently, understanding growth variability in forest ecosystems requires the incorporation of reproduction, which can be highly variable. Our results suggest that future response of growth dynamics to climate change in this species will be strongly influenced by the response of reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown ., Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations., Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time., These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree masting is one of the most intensively studied ecological processes. It affects nutrient fluxes of trees, regeneration dynamics in forests, animal population densities, and ultimately influences ecosystem services. Despite a large volume of research focused on masting, its evolutionary ecology, spatial and temporal variability, and environmental drivers are still matter of debate. Understanding the proximate and ultimate causes of masting at broad spatial and temporal scales will enable us to predict tree reproductive strategies and their response to changing environment. Here we provide broad spatial (distribution range-wide) and temporal (century) masting data for the two main masting tree species in Europe, European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.). We collected masting data from a total of 359 sources through an extensive literature review and from unpublished surveys. The data set has a total of 1,747 series and 18,348 yearly observations from 28 countries and covering a time span of years 1677-2016 and 1791-2016 for beech and spruce, respectively. For each record, the following information is available: identification code; species; year of observation; proxy of masting (flower, pollen, fruit, seed, dendrochronological reconstructions); statistical data type (ordinal, continuous); data value; unit of measurement (only in case of continuous data); geographical location (country, Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics NUTS-1 level, municipality, coordinates); first and last record year and related length; type of data source (field survey, peer reviewed scientific literature, gray literature, personal observation); source identification code; date when data were added to the database; comments. To provide a ready-to-use masting index we harmonized ordinal data into five classes. Furthermore, we computed an additional field where continuous series with length >4 yr where converted into a five classes ordinal index. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive published database on species-specific masting behavior. It is useful to study spatial and temporal patterns of masting and its proximate and ultimate causes, to refine studies based on tree-ring chronologies, to understand dynamics of animal species and pests vectored by these animals affecting human health, and it may serve as calibration-validation data for dynamic forest models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]