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In Pakistan, around 58% of current electricity is generated from fossil fuels and only 2.4% is generated using renewable energy (RE) resources even though country is blessed with enormous RE potential. Among other RE resources, Pakistan's geographical location offers high solar energy potential, which implies that actual potential assessment should be undertaken. This study, as such, undertakes a comprehensive assessment of solar energy potential and prospects of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems for both off‐grid and grid‐connected systems. This study also estimates the future available capacity of rooftop and rural off‐grid solar PV capacity. Three different types of solar PV modules of the same size, that is, thin‐film, premium, and standard were modeled to compare energy outputs. NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) is used to estimate the geographical and technical potential of solar PV considering updated data and geographical information. SAM results suggest that an average of 4.5 kWh/kWp/day is obtained from an installed capacity of 1 KWp. The logistic modeling equations are further used to forecast the solar PV penetration over a period until 2090. The research investigation concludes that 2.8 × 106 GWh of electricity can be generated annually in Pakistan. The estimated results prove that solar PV has the potential to meet the present as well as future energy needs of Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan has faced an electricity shortfall for over two decades despite various efforts taken at different levels. Though electricity supply in recent times has crossed the demand, the supply‐side stresses and deciding optimal power generation pathways have always been a challenge for policymakers and researchers. In this study using a LEAP energy model, following the sectoral electricity demand forecast, four supply‐side scenarios have been developed and analyzed for the study period 2017‐2055. In each scenario, referred to as Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Coal Power Penetration (CPP), and High‐Efficiency Low‐Emission (HELE) scenario, electricity generation, installed generation capacity, cost of production, and GHG emissions are estimated and compared for seeking long‐term optimal energy pathways for Pakistan. The study results reveal that for the end year (2055), RET is an environmentally sustainable scenario with an estimated electricity generation of 2421 TWh, which is enough to meet the electricity demand of 2374TWh. The GHG emissions under the RET scenario are estimated to be 857 million metric Tons, which are around 50% less than CPP and 40% less than the BAU scenario. However, the cost of generation is higher than BAU and CPP scenarios. The CPP scenario emerges to be cost‐competitive, however with the highest GHG emissions. This study thus suggests that convergence of RET with the CPP scenario could be an appealing option for Pakistan to meet increasing demand with energy security and environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important part of renewable energy strategy of any country is to find suitable transportation fuels to substitute for gasoline and diesel oil. Ethanol has been widely adopted as a substitute for gasoline and diesel oil. The quantity of ethanol required as renewable transport fuel is related to nature of gasoline and diesel demand. Based on data for 1991-2014, this study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to estimate the consumption of gasoline in transportation sector in Pakistan from 2015 to 2025. The model results fit well with historical data showing high degree of accuracy. Study provides useful information for designing policy in favor of substituting gasoline with ethanol. Additionally, forecasted results provide useful support for designing an appropriate infrastructure and investment plan with reference to both gasoline and E10 in future. This study also provides a drive for existing refineries to focus on upgrading production configurations in order to increase the share of gasoline in their product-mix. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 36: 1490-1497, 2017 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]